2012 MLB Draft Profile: Adam Brett Walker, OF/1B,
Jacksonville University

Summary

If anyone challenges Joey Gallo for the most power in this draft class, its Adam Brett Walker. Some scouts give this guy an 80 for a future power grade. That's reserved for only the most powerful beasts in baseball. But, that's what you're going to get with Walker. His dad was an NFL running back, so he's grown up as an athlete and around professional sports. He has power in his heritage, and he brings that to his plate. It's obvious that he has it with his 6-5, 225 pound frame. Sound like Domingo Santana? Despite him being a right-handed hitter, his power and frame have caused him to be compared to Fred McGriff. Now, that's high praise.

So, why is he not included in talks for 1-1 with that kind of comparison? For starters, he's got power but has issues with consistent contact. Walker just strikes out way too much. He struggles against advanced pitching, especially with breaking balls. At this point, he just can't let the ball travel deep enough to recognize it and put a good swing on it. If he can't hit well at Jacksonville University, he probably won't hit well in professional baseball. Although, he's had some issues with a hand injury this year which could be causing him to hit worse. He has a long uppercut swing which is also more susceptible to holes that can be exploited by breaking pitches. In pro ball, he'll have some work to do to make consistent contact.

He runs well for a guy his size (double digit stolen bases) but his home is likely at 1B. He doesn't have a great arm, but has made him capable of playing LF at this point. He could possibly stay in LF in pro ball since he can run well and he needs work at 1B. He's stiff (what guy that size isn't) and doesn't have soft hands. He needs more work at 1B. I'm starting to think he could a bigger leaner version of Telvin Nash.

Floor

Like I said, he could be like Telvin Nash. Although, it's too early to really say what Telvin Nash could be. Still, his floor is a guy who just puts mistakes pitches over the outfield wall but fails to do much else. His power alone could put him up to AA just because his Lancaster numbers could be absurd.

Ceiling

Giancarlo Stanton! That's his ultimate ceiling. Lots of power and capable of hitting .250-.270 but you'll have to deal his fair share of strikeouts. You can take that in the clean-up spot can't you? When a guy jacks 30-40 bombs a year, you can put up with a lot.

Projected Draft Round

Jonathan Mayo has him as the 49th best prospect while Keith Law has him at 80. He's a supplemental round to 3rd or 4th round type prospect. Although, power can get you drafted much earlier than expected when draft day comes. I wouldn't be surprised at supplemental pick or early second round.

Will he sign?

I think so. He still has questions to answer about his bat and where he belongs defensively, but there's not much he'll accomplish at Jacksonville University. His development would likely be better served in pro ball. But, he's a really young junior in his age 20 season and would still be one of they youngest seniors next year if he chooses to try and build his stock next season in school. Anything before mid-2nd round and I think he's a sure bet to sign.

Bibliography after the jump

Baseball Prospect Report

MLB.com

The son of a former NFL running back, Walker looks the part of a future slugger. The question is if he has the baseball skills to get there.

There’s no question about his pop at the plate. He might have as much raw power as anyone in the Draft class, with some scouts giving him an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also has a very good approach to hitting, though his hitting instincts lag behind. That leaves some wondering if he’ll learn to tap into that power consistently enough against advanced pitching.

A big, physical specimen, Walker has played both first base and the outfield. His arm is well below average, and while some think he could handle playing left field, his defensive home is up in the air. He draws comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton, both in body type and power potential, but there is some concern that he’s a Ferrari with a VW engine.

Coast 2 Coast Prospects

Adam Brett Walker is one of the few, true power bats in this year's college class. Often mentioned in the same breath as Georgia Southern outfielder Victor Roache, Walker has raw power that approaches 70 on the scouting scale and plays both in BP and in games. He has the ideal power hitting frame and is big, strong and athletic in all aspects of his game. Despite the raw power, however, Walker is far from refined and his hit tool is well behind his power.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/5/30/3051863/2012-mlb-draft-profile-adam-brett-
walker-of-1b-jacksonville-st

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The Miami Marlins: The Most .500 Team Ever

Earlier today, we pointed out why the Miami Marlins have done so well in May. The team has won 20 games this month and that represents a club record. The latest victories have pulled them to a 28-22 record. But as you might expect, a 28-22 record does not mean that your team has performed as well as that record would suggest. One could look at a number of other statistics that look to break down the Marlins by component thus far this season to determine how good they have been. We showed a number of them earlier today, so it is worth looking at those again.

MonthRunsRuns AllowedwRCFIP RA + UZR*Win%PythWin%**FanGraphsWin%^April73877592.364.423.409May126112125108.714.554.567

Now, usually that sort of analysis looks at runs scored and allowed to determine a Pythagorean win percentage. The analysis could go even deeper by analyzing the Marlins' component stats to determine how many runs the team should have scored and allowed and then applying Pythagorean expectations to estimate a win percentage.

However, in the case of the Marlins, the answers all point to one response.

Marlins Runs Scored Runs Allowed Win%Actual Runs199199.500FanGraphs Runs200200.500

Sure, the Miami Marlins may have been one of the worst teams in April and one of the best teams in May, but when you look at their overall record, only one thing stands out: thus far in 2012, they have been the most utterly average team in baseball.

Sometimes records lie, and run differential tends to be a better record of how well a team played at any given time. It also tends to better estimate a team's performance in the future as well. But sometimes run differential lies, and using component stats turns out to be a better indicator of how a team played at a given time. Just like sometimes teams can be lucky or unlucky in one-run games, teams can also be lucky or unlucky with runners on base and not drive in runs that they otherwise would have earned with their hitting.

But sometimes, something magical like what the Marlins have done thus far this season aligns perfectly. Sometimes, you take a look at a team's true runs scored and allowed and it directly reflects how well the team has played in terms of component stats. Now, this only shows that the Marlins have done about as well in terms of wOBA on offense as their real run scoring would suggest, and that the estimate of FIP plus UZR runs also worked out well with their real runs allowed. But what about other methods of computing this component data?

Well, let's take a look at another source, Baseball Prospectus, to see where they stand with the Fish. This is taken from their Hit List article from today.

Keep in mind what those first three columns mean:

W1: Represents a Pythagorean estimate of total wins based on the team's runs scored and allowed

W2: Represents a Pythagorean estimate of total wins based on the team's EqR and EqRA, Baseball Prospectus's total offense stat and pitching-plus-defense stats respectively

W3: Represents a Pythagorean estimate of total wins based on the team's adjusted EqR and EqRA, adjusted for strength of schedule

OK, take a look at the entry for the Marlins.

They are perfectly .500. Even after adjusting for strength of schedule, somehow the Marlins have turned in a perfectly .500 performance on their third-order wins. It's not just normal runs that had the Marlins as being average, but it is also component runs and component runs adjusted for strength of schedule. Through yesterday, when combining their putrid April and their red-hot May, this team could not have been more average.

That does not mean that the Marlins are expected to finish .500 the rest of the way. Depending on who you asked, the Marlins should have been a true-talent 84- or 85-win team this season. That is certainly the stance that this site took prior to the start of the year. Interestingly enough, if you use this simple TangoTiger shortcut for estimating end-of-season record based on one season of play, you get 85 wins, right in line with our projections. If you just figure the Marlins would split their remaining 112 games, they end up at 84 wins, so our projections were not all that far-fetched.

However, if you take the Fish as a true-talent 85-win team going forward, as Baseball Prospectus projected before the season, then you might give the Fish, as Baseball Prospectus did, a 56 percent chance of making the playoffs. CoolStandings.com has us at 31 percent chance of making the postseason, and right now a number in between those odds seems about right.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.fishstripes.com/2012/5/30/3053061/miami-marlins-500-team

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Game 49 Overflow #2

Game 49 Overflow #2

Royals up 5-3

Read The Full Article:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/5/30/3052907/game-49-overflow-2

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2012 MLB Draft Profile: Michael Roth, LHP,
University of South Carolina

Summary

The ace of the Gamecocks pitching staff is senior Michael Roth. Recruited as a first basemen out of Greer, South Carolina, Roth was turned into a left handed reliever. His Sophmore year he pitched well out of the bullpen and got his first opportunity to start in the College World Series.

Ray Tanner expected him to go three to four innings at the most. Instead Roth pitched a one run, three hit, complete game against in-state rival Clemson. Since then he's been spectacular for the Gamecocks posting a 1.06 ERA last year in 145 innings and a 2.60 ERA this year in 86.2 innings.

Roth has a fastball that sits in the mid to high 80's, a changeup (best pitch), a curve and a slider, all with good movement. He's essentially Dallas Keuchel.

He has control, 2.69 BB/9 in college, but needs to work on his command. I've read scouting reports that say he has good command, but in the game I watched him pitch during the SEC tournament he appeared to struggle with hitting the catchers target. His delivery is deceptive, doing a good job of hiding the ball. Typically, depending on the handiness of the hitter at the plate he'll change his arm slot: against lefties he uses the side arm slot and against righties he uses the three quarters arm slot.

Typically what happens with a successful pitcher that lacks high octane stuff is he gets praised for the intangibles he brings to the mound. Roth having pitched in the highest pressure situations of college baseball is no different. Not only is he lauded for his presence on the mound, but also for his character off the field. Do a Google images search and you'll be hard pressed to find an image of Roth not smiling.

Floor

Minor League reliever. Roth really needs to work on his command and developing his pitches further.

Ceiling

Major League reliever. Roth could have a similar climb through the system that Keuchel has had. There's the possibility that he defies all scoutinglogic and starts, but even if he does he'll be a back end of the rotation starter and the more likely scenario is that of a reliever.

Projected Draft Round

I think he could go in the late first 10 rounds of the draft like Keuchel did, but it's more likely he falls some where well after the 10 rounds. Last year the Cleveland Indians selected him in the 31st round as a Junior. Unless Roth does something amazing in the College World Series I don't think he's really improved his stock all that much. One thing that will be working in his favor is the new CBA which gives teams only a $100k signing bonus to work with after the 10th round. Meaning teams may shy away from drafting high school players with college commitments in the later rounds. If a team is looking for a sure sign Roth is it.

Will he sign?

Senior, yes, see above.

Bibliography, gifs and video after the jump

GIFs

Side view of Roth's delivery.

Roth's delivery against left handed batters.

Roth's delivery against right handed batters.

Video

Commentary

MLB Draft Guide - Matt Grabusky

Michael Roth perfectly fits the mold of crafty lefty. He has built on his performance at the 2010 CWS and is putting together a stellar campaign as South Carolina’s ace. Roth changes speeds well and shows good command.

Roth throws his fastball in the high 80′s. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, which is particularly effective against righthanded hitters. He also uses a curve against righties and a slider against lefties. Roth’s arm slot drops from high 3/4 against righties to low 3/4, almost sidearm, against lefthanded hitters.

Roth was used primarily as a situational reliever until the 2010 CWS and that role may be his best chance to make it to the Majors.

Carolina Pitching Coach Jerry Meyers on Roth's changeup - Baseball America - Aaron Fitt

"A lot of lefties have some good ones, but his has maybe a little deeper action than some, the late sink on it, plus it has the change of speed. Even with close to a traditional changeup grip, he just gets a little more action on it. He has a lot of conviction with it, and he knows it's going to be a pretty good pitch for him. Even when he doesn't have his best one, he knows he can change slots, throw some cutters in on righties' hands, and do some things with his fastball that maybe some other guys who don't locate as well can't do."

Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/5/30/3049666/2012-mlb-draft-profile-michael-rot
h-lhp-university-of-south-carolina

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Another Frustrating Loss for the Birds up in
Toronto...

On Tuesday night, the Orioles dropped their fourth game in a row as they lost to the Toronto Blue Jays, 8-6.
With the loss, Baltimore has lost three straight series; however, they are still tied for first place in the American League East with the Tampa Bay Rays at 29-21. Once again, the Orioles got a shaky start from a pitcher ? this time, Jake Arrieta ? and much like Tommy Hunter, the previous night, he struggled.

Overall, Arrieta got hit hard by the Jays, particularly in the third and fifth innings. He gave up seven runs ? six earned ? on six hits in only 4 1/3 innings pitched. I would consider Arrieta one of the more talented pitchers on the roster, and he?s got ?good stuff?; however, none of that matters if you can?t make your pitches to put guys away. His record is now 2-6 on the year.

He was not keeping the ball low in the zone, and a team like Toronto who likes to swing at the ball and kill it did just that on Tuesday. I?m sure Arrieta will get every chance to succeed, but if the Orioles are to contend, they will need a lot more than Wei-Yin Chen and Jason Hammel out there.

Arrieta, Tommy Hunter (if he comes back), Brian Matusz, and all the other young pitchers will need to do their part and execute. I think the game is 80 to 90 percent pitching, and if Baltimore can?t do it on the mound, it won?t matter how many runs they score.

>>> Read More

Read The Full Article:
http://oriolepost.blogspot.com/2012/05/another-frustrating-loss-for-birds-up.html

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List of Players Invited to Attend the 2012 MLB
Draft Live

The following five players have been invited to attend the 2012 MLB Amateur (Rule 4) Draft in person in New York City next Monday night at 7 PM EDT:Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe High School, LouisianaCarlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball AcademyClint[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheTenthInningStretch/~3/fHeQ8tHRW8E/list-of-playe
rs-ivited-to-attend-2012.html

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Game 49 Overflow

Game 49 Overflow

Indians up 3-2

Read The Full Article:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/5/30/3052768/game-49-overflow

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2012 MLB Draft Profile: Tom Murphy, C, Buffalo

Summary

The bar for being a productive catcher in the major leagues is low. It's not low in that it's still very, very hard to play baseball at that high a level, but it's lower for catchers than for lots of other positions.

Which is why you can re-calibrate expectations for catchers. A guy who profiles with average power at other positions becomes above-average for a catcher. The flip side of that is that a guy who has to move off the position can go from being a great prospect to an average one with one small switch in positions.

Why is this relevant? Because Tom Murphy could be one of the best catchers in the draft, but he's not really one of the best hitters. He's got good power, but may not be able to make great contact consistently in the majors. He's good defensively, and has a good chance at sticking with catching in the future.

Murphy provides a ton of value as long as he stays at catcher. Even if he doesn't hit for a high average in the pros, he's got a pretty good eye and figures to be an above-average to average defensive player. That means he could easily end up like John Buck or even a non-hyped Matt Wieters.

For a Houston team that's pretty thin at catcher, Murphy would make a lot of sense if he's there in the second or third round.

Floor

J.P. Arencibia

Ceiling

Todd Hundley

Projected Draft Round

Baseball America has him in the second round, though Keith Law doesn't rate him in his Top 100. I'd say beauty is in the eye of the beholder with him, meaning he could go in the first round and he could fall to the third or fourth.

Will he sign?

He is a junior and if he slips enough, there's a chance he goes back to school. With his power, there is a good chance he could get more exposure with another season under his belt. Although, the questions about his contact skills could see his stock drop instead. It's a gamble, but I bet if he goes in the sandwich round to second round, he'll sign.

Bibliography after the jump

Video

Commentary

College Baseball Daily

Murphy had a breakout season as a sophomore leading the Bulls in hitting with a .384 batting average while hitting ten homers and driving in 44 runs. He spent the summer mostly in the NECBL with the Holyoke Blue Sox hitting .285 with 10 homers and 28 RBI. He also played in the NECBL All-Star game against the USA Collegiate National Team. He ended up hitting a long homer off of LSU’s Kevin Gausman. (Video below) After the game, he was added to the USA Collegiate National Team roster. He played in four games (two starts) where he did not get a basehit in eight official at-bats.

Mass Live

Tom Murphy, a catcher from the University at Buffalo, outdid both Freeman and Mancini. Not only did Murphy clear the Green Monster in batting practice, he hit a home run that counted.

"I was just telling my family, just joking around, ‘I’m going to put one over the Green Monster,’" Murphy said. "But you can never imagine it’s going to happen. It’s surreal."

Leading off the second inning, Murphy turned on a first-pitch fastball from USA starting pitcher Kevin Gausman, but the ball curled foul, bounding hard off a seat below the Coca-Cola sign in left field.

On the next pitch, a slider on the inside half of the plate, Murphy muscled the ball into left-center field – over the Green Monster – and into the back row of seats below the Volvo ad.

"Last night, he said he was going to hit one out in BP just to say he did it," Murphy’s mother, Helen, said.

"To hit it in a game, though," said his father, Tom Murphy Sr., "on a slider pitch, it’s just incredible."

Baseball Prospect Nation

The University of Buffalo is not known for its baseball program, but they may draw more national attention after Tom Murphy is popped next month. Murphy has quietly been moving up draft boards since last summer and while most scouts project him to go in the third round, there are some rumblings that teams could be willing to go get him in the second round to make sure they get him.

As one scout noted to me this spring, "There’s nothing he doesn’t do."

Murphy calls his own games at Buffalo, showing an advanced feel for helping his pitchers work through a lineup multiple times. He has good catch-and-throw skills, including an above-average arm that has helped generate sub-2.0 pop times with regularity.

He has a knack for hitting and he should hit for average at every stop of his career. He’s not just a one-trick pony with hitting ability being his only offensive attribute though, as he also offers the potential for average power with plenty of doubles while spraying the ball from line to line.

Coast2Coast Prospects

Murphy is a very strong right handed hitting catcher, with plus power potential. Last year for Buffalo as a sophomore, Murphy was named MAC player of the year when he hit 10 home runs and 16 doubles, with a .384 average. This year he has put up the same home run and doubles totals, but his average has fallen to .306. He has a very powerful swing and the ball jumps off his bat when he makes contact out front, but he tends to use arms more than hands. He is not an all or nothing pull happy guy, though, as he drives the ball well to both gaps. As the comparison below shows, he does not project to hit for much average at the next level, but his plus raw power, should translate to the next level, as Arencibia’s has.

MLB.com

Murphy, one scout said, is like O'Brien was a year ago: A strong catcher with power playing in a relatively weak conference. The power and strength are legit, though some are worried about his ability to make consistent enough contact to tap into that power on a regular basis. He's received better grades on his defense overall than O'Brien, with less concern about his ability to stay at the position. If a team thinks he can hit enough, it'll take him in the first couple of rounds as a potential everyday backstop. If not, he still could be a good right-handed power-hitting backup.

Baseball America

Murphy earned Mid-American Conference Player of the Year honors despite the Bulls' 3-22 conference record, after hitting .384/.446/.626 with 10 home runs and 44 RBIs as a sophomore. His spring put him on scouts' radar screens, but his summer ensured they will flock to Buffalo next year, as one talent evaluator said Murphy could go in the top three rounds of the draft. Two swings of the bat in a showcase against Team USA and Louisiana State flame-throwing righty Kevin Gausman at Fenway Park opened eyes: Murphy ripped Gausman's first-pitch fastball about 400 feet foul off the Coca-Cola sign down the left-field line, then he stayed back on Gausman's sharp slider and launched it over the Green Monster for an estimated 450 feet, showing off his compact stroke and plus raw power. A few days later, Murphy signed to play a five-game series with Team USA against Team Japan. When he returned to Holyoke, Murphy continued raking to the tune of .291/.364/.575. An athletic 6-foot-1, 210-pound backstop, Murphy ran a 6.75-second 60-yard dash at the NECBL all-star game. He is a good receiver with a solid-average arm, routinely turning out 1.9-second pop times, though his throwing needs refinement as the ball sails on him at times. Scouts and managers alike raved about Murphy's work ethic, and Holyoke general manager Kirk Fredriksson, who recruited Strasburg in 2007, called Murphy the league's best catching prospect during his 15 years.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/5/30/3048910/2012-mlb-draft-profile-mike-yastrz
emski-of-vanderbilt

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2012 MLB Draft Profile: Adam Brett Walker, OF/1B,
Jacksonville St

Summary

If anyone challenges Joey Gallo for the most power in this draft class, its Adam Brett Walker. Some scouts give this guy an 80 for a future power grade. That's reserved for only the most powerful beasts in baseball. But, that's what you're going to get with Walker. His dad was an NFL running back, so he's grown up as an athlete and around professional sports. He has power in his heritage, and he brings that to his plate. It's obvious that he has it with his 6-5, 225 pound frame. Sound like Domingo Santana? Despite him being a right-handed hitter, his power and frame have caused him to be compared to Fred McGriff. Now, that's high praise.

So, why is he not included in talks for 1-1 with that kind of comparison? For starters, he's got power but has issues with consistent contact. Walker just strikes out way too much. He struggles against advanced pitching, especially with breaking balls. At this point, he just can't let the ball travel deep enough to recognize it and put a good swing on it. If he can't hit well at Jacksonville State, he probably won't hit well in professional baseball. Although, he's had some issues with a hand injury this year which could be causing him to hit worse. He has a long uppercut swing which is also more susceptible to holes that can be exploited by breaking pitches. In pro ball, he'll have some work to do to make consistent contact.

He runs well for a guy his size (double digit stolen bases) but his home is likely at 1B. He doesn't have a great arm, but has made him capable of playing LF at this point. He could possibly stay in LF in pro ball since he can run well and he needs work at 1B. He's stiff (what guy that size isn't) and doesn't have soft hands. He needs more work at 1B. I'm starting to think he could a bigger leaner version of Telvin Nash.

Floor

Like I said, he could be like Telvin Nash. Although, it's too early to really say what Telvin Nash could be. Still, his floor is a guy who just puts mistakes pitches over the outfield wall but fails to do much else. His power alone could put him up to AA just because his Lancaster numbers could be absurd.

Ceiling

Giancarlo Stanton! That's his ultimate ceiling. Lots of power and capable of hitting .250-.270 but you'll have to deal his fair share of strikeouts. You can take that in the clean-up spot can't you? When a guy jacks 30-40 bombs a year, you can put up with a lot.

Projected Draft Round

Jonathan Mayo has him as the 49th best prospect while Keith Law has him at 80. He's a supplemental round to 3rd or 4th round type prospect. Although, power can get you drafted much earlier than expected when draft day comes. I wouldn't be surprised at supplemental pick or early second round.

Will he sign?

I think so. He still has questions to answer about his bat and where he belongs defensively, but there's not much he'll accomplish at Jacksonville State. His development would likely be better served in pro ball. But, he's a really young junior in his age 20 season and would still be one of they youngest seniors next year if he chooses to try and build his stock next season in school. Anything before mid-2nd round and I think he's a sure bet to sign.

Bibliography after the jump

Baseball Prospect Report

MLB.com

The son of a former NFL running back, Walker looks the part of a future slugger. The question is if he has the baseball skills to get there.

There’s no question about his pop at the plate. He might have as much raw power as anyone in the Draft class, with some scouts giving him an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also has a very good approach to hitting, though his hitting instincts lag behind. That leaves some wondering if he’ll learn to tap into that power consistently enough against advanced pitching.

A big, physical specimen, Walker has played both first base and the outfield. His arm is well below average, and while some think he could handle playing left field, his defensive home is up in the air. He draws comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton, both in body type and power potential, but there is some concern that he’s a Ferrari with a VW engine.

Coast 2 Coast Prospects

Adam Brett Walker is one of the few, true power bats in this year's college class. Often mentioned in the same breath as Georgia Southern outfielder Victor Roache, Walker has raw power that approaches 70 on the scouting scale and plays both in BP and in games. He has the ideal power hitting frame and is big, strong and athletic in all aspects of his game. Despite the raw power, however, Walker is far from refined and his hit tool is well behind his power.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/5/30/3051863/2012-mlb-draft-profile-adam-brett-
walker-of-1b-jacksonville-st

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5/30 News, Links, Discussion: Braves-Cardinals,
Freeman Update, Beasts of the East

Back in the Win Column The Braves broke their eight-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 5-4 win over the Cardinals, evening the series with one game to go. Taking the series won’t be an easy task as Atlanta faces Kyle Lohse in the rubber game today at 7:10. Tim Hudson goes for the Braves. [...]

Read The Full Article:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CapitolAvenueClub/~3/A3hoEtU_oMo/

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