Solano Taters, Dunn Gets Neck Strain: Loss #88

    At Turner Field last night, sans Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins demonstrated once again that they?re perfectly capable of winning ball games, if our guys were playing to statistical norms.  Going into the ninth with a 3-2 lead, Adam Dunn served up a meatball that Freddie Freeman air-mailed to the cheap seats in center [...]

Read The Full Article:
http://marlinmaniac.com/2012/09/26/solano-taters-dunn-gets-neck-strain-loss-88/

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Why Can't the Miami Marlins Compete With an $80
Million Payroll

Yesterday was Email and Twitter Tuesday on the Miami Marlins television broadcast, and I decided to tweet over a question via our Fish Stripes Twitter account (which is a must-follow for all Fish Stripes readers). Surprisingly, it actually got mentioned on the air, marking the first time under my regime that Fish Stripes was mentioned on a Tuesday telecast. Play-by-play commentator Rich Waltz even complemented us on our new logo and layout on our first day under SB Nation United! Huzzah!

But my actual question is what I thought was most pertinent to the discussion.

@fsmarlins Rich & Tommy, heard Marlins payroll will go to $80M in 2013. Can the team remain competitive at that payroll? #twittertuesday

— fishstripes (@fishstripes) September 25, 2012

I think it was a perfectly rational question to ask with rumors that the Marlins' payroll would drop to $80 million. And to their credit, Rich and color commentator Tommy Hutton engaged me in a light conversation. At first, Tommy responded by asking whether this $100 million-plus version of the Marlins was any good, to which I said the following:

@fsmarlins Tommy: Exactly, this team at $100M didn't do well, can this team w/ less payroll and talent be competitive? #twittertuesday

— fishstripes (@fishstripes) September 25, 2012

Rich and Tommy, being to some degree attached to the Marlins, were not allowed to say negative things, so I never expected a response in the negative. But the response I received appealed to the Marlins of the past, saying the team has stayed competitive with much lower payrolls than 2012's mark, so why couldn't the 2013 Marlins compete with $80 million with which to work?

On the surface, this seems like a fair assessment. The Marlins did compete with less money before, and indeed $80 million would still be the second-highest starting payroll in Marlins history. And another emailer later on in the telecast was mentioned as saying many of the competitors of this year, such as the Washington Nationals, have payrolls around $80 million. So certainly it is more than feasible to say that a team with an $80 million payroll can compete.

But I never asked if any team with an $80 million payroll could compete. I asked if this Marlins team at an $80 million payroll could compete. And that's a completely different question that merits further investigation. The Marlins are not the Washington Nationals of 2012, and there is a major reason why they are competitive and we might not be.

Cost-Controlled Talent

The reason was in fact partially discussed yesterday when we talked about Larry Beinfest's draft record as top Marlins executive. The difference between the Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins in terms of their ability to compete with an $80 million payroll comes down to cost-controlled talent. Take a look at these figures of top players on the respective teams in terms of FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement and salary in the 2012 season.

The list only gets worse past the fifth player, but let us focus on just these five names. The Marlins have highly-paid players such as Mark Buehrle producing decent results, while the Nationals are getting the same sort of play and better from guys like Jordan Zimmermann for a third of the price of Buehrle now. The Nationals have Ross Detwiler contributing two wins to their team while being paid $0.5 million, while Nolasco does the same (and arguably worse) at $9 million.

On the position players' side, the Marlins are simply outclassed by the Nationals, but it does not help that the Nats are doing this while paying about the same amount as the Fish. FanGraphs has Danny Espinosa putting up a four-win season at a rookie salary. The Marlins are paying the same amount for Donovan Solano. Only in right field are the Marlins actually more efficient in their wins produced, with Stanton being an obvious favorite over the heftily-paid Jayson Werth.

But overall, the point here is simple and it stands. The Washington Nationals are paying $80 million and getting surplus value on their dollar because they have a number of cost-controlled players who are contributing to them at the major league level. Guys like Strasburg, Zimmermann, Harper, Desmond, and Espinosa are all playing for a lot less than what they are worth and they are contributing a ton of wins above their salary. The Marlins' top players, aside from Stanton and the surprising Justin Ruggiano, are all being paid for their contributions. The team has very little in the way of cost-controlled talent, as only Stanton could compare to the majority of those five listed players.

Draft Concerns

And why are the Marlins so behind on the Nationals in terms of cost-controlled talent? The reason for this is the very reason why Beinfest's job should be considered on the line: the team has not drafted well over the last decade. Forget Strasburg and Harper, who were generational-type talents into whom the Nationals lucked in consecutive years. Desmond was a third-round pick in 2004. Espinosa was a third-round pick in 2008. Zimmermann was a second-round pick in 2007. Detwiler was a first-round selection in 2007. The Nationals have turned a number of their drafts into useful parts, and that is a primary reason that they can get away with two large signings like Ryan Zimmerman and Werth and still compete on a mid-market payroll.

In comparison, the Marlins did very little their drafts from 2004 to 2007. From yesterday's article:

PlayerYear DraftedPA / IPrWARJeremy Hermida200222611.8Robert Andino200213751.9Josh Johnson2002910 2/323.9Jason Vargas2004822 2/35.4Brett Carroll20043241.1Chris Volstad2005685 1/32.3Gaby Sanchez200516472.6Alex Sanabia200683 1/31.0Giancarlo Stanton2007147211.3Steve Cishek2007118 2/32.1

Take a look at the contributors from 2004 to 2007. Vargas was traded for Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens, and neither player ended up doing much for the Marlins. Brett Carroll played all of 319 PA for the Fish before being deemed too poor a hitter to stay in the majors. Chris Volstad was supposed to be good, but he turned out to be as mediocre as you could possibly be (and the signs were there well before Volstad's promotion). Sanchez collapsed in a hurry. Sanabia has suffered through multiple injuries. Only Stanton and Steve Cishek remain among players who may stay in the organization, and Cishek is a reliever. This does not even mention the multiple first-round picks that did not pan out, like Jeff Allison, Brett Sinkbeil, and the rest of the 2005 class of five first-round selections. As for 2008, only Brad Hand has played significant time from that draft class, and he has been nothing but terrible.

Conclusion

Comparing the level of competition from a team like the Nationals with the potential for the Marlins to compete at their same payroll is absurd. The Marlins made the moves to add to a nucleus that was supposed to be here until 2014. That nucleus was cut in part in midseason, leaving the Marlins to try and fill gaps with whatever was left on the farm. The problem is that, unlike the Nationals, the Marlins do not have the pieces necessary to fill those gaps because of their poor drafts in recent years. As a result, while the Nationals did not need to spend to fill in the holes in their lineup this season, the Marlins need to in 2013 if they want to compete.

The current Marlins team, the one heading into the 2013 season, is not the Marlins of the past. The previous Marlins had a nucleus of young players developed by the club or acquired via years of trading major league talent away. That was the 2003 to 2005 teams. Those clubs got away with a smaller payroll supplemented by only some free agent moves because the core was intact. This team's core is being paid a hefty sum already, and aside from Stanton there are no other cost-controlled players the Marlins can lean on to provide above-average production. Due to the failures of the drafts in the last few years, an $80 million Marlins team would be significantly less talented than an $80 million Nationals team, and that is the reason why competition at a lower payroll may be a tough sell for the Marlins.

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Where Do Braves Prospects Rank At Each Level Of
The Minor Leagues

Baseball America ranks the top-20 prospects in each league in the minors, follow this story stream to see which Braves prospects made the lists.

Over the next month, Baseball America will be presenting their top-20 prospects per league. They start at the bottom of the minor leagues, in Rookie Ball, with the Gulf Coast League. The GCL is the lowest state-side league the Atlanta Braves have in their organization.

This year the Braves placed a lot of young under-20-year-old talent in the GCL, much of it from the last two drafts. They also debuted some of their top international talent in the GCL, and two of those players ranked in BA's top-20 prospects for the GCL. Shortstop Jose Peraza was ranked as the 10th-best prospect, while left-hander Luis Merejo was ranked 13th.

Peraza is one of my favorite Braves prospects right now. He oozes defensive tools and has an Andrelton-like approach at the plate, with plus-plus speed on the basepaths. Talking Chop ranked him as the 14th-best prospect on our mid-season top-25, and he is sure to move much higher. He was promoted to advanced Rookie ball after just a month in the GCL, and hardly missed a beat, so we might see him on BA's top Appy League prospects as well.

Luis Merejo is a new name for most, but again, Talking Chop had him 18th on our mid-season top-25. This is his first taste of professional baseball, and at only 17 years old he had an impressive debut, registering 53 strikeouts in 41 innings, while walking just 9. Merejo has a good feel for pitching, which the Braves love, and should add a few miles per hour to his low-90s fastball in the coming years.

These are two great prospects who should be on prospect lists for years to come (until they're ready to help in Atlanta). Another Braves prospect in the GCL that BA said to watch is right-hander Jorge Montenegro. He did not necessarily impress with his stats, but apparently he has a mid-90s fastball and a promising curveball if he can harness his control. Someone to keep an eye on.

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Braves Have Two Top Prospectcs In Baseball
America's Top Gulf Coast League Prospects

Over the next month, Baseball America will be presenting their top-20 prospects per league. They start at the bottom of the minor leagues, in Rookie Ball, with the Gulf Coast League. The GCL is the lowest state-side league the Atlanta Braves have in their organization.

This year the Braves placed a lot of young under-20-year-old talent in the GCL, much of it from the last two drafts. They also debuted some of their top international talent in the GCL, and two of those players ranked in BA's top-20 prospects for the GCL. Shortstop Jose Peraza was ranked as the 10th-best prospect, while left-hander Luis Merejo was ranked 13th.

Peraza is one of my favorite Braves prospects right now. He oozes defensive tools and has an Andrelton-like approach at the plate, with plus-plus speed on the basepaths. Talking Chop ranked him as the 14th-best prospect on our mid-season top-25, and he is sure to move much higher. He was promoted to advanced Rookie ball after just a month in the GCL, and hardly missed a beat, so we might see him on BA's top Appy League prospects as well.

Luis Merejo is a new name for most, but again, Talking Chop had him 18th on our mid-season top-25. This is his first taste of professional baseball, and at only 17 years old he had an impressive debut, registering 53 strikeouts in 41 innings, while walking just 9. Merejo has a good feel for pitching, which the Braves love, and should add a few miles per hour to his low-90s fastball in the coming years.

These are two great prospects who should be on prospect lists for years to come (until they're ready to help in Atlanta). Another Braves prospect in the GCL that BA said to watch is right-hander Jorge Montenegro. He did not necessarily impress with his stats, but apparently he has a mid-90s fastball and a promising curveball if he can harness his control. Someone to keep an eye on.

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9/26 News, Links, Discussion: Braves-Marlins,
Clinch Edition

Game 2 vs. Marlins While the Braves clinched a playoff spot Tuesday with a dramatic walk-off home run by Freddie Freeman, by no means are they cruising the rest of the way. They are close to solidifying the home spot in the wild card while sitting four games out in the NL East with eight [...]

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CapitolAvenueClub/~3/2tylmu7ifzg/

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APNewsBreak: Ex-Dodger owner back in divorce
court (Yahoo! Sports)

LOS ANGELES (AP) — The ex-wife of former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt wants to set aside the couple’s divorce settlement, claiming he vastly understated the value of a team that sold earlier this year for $2 billion, the highest figure ever paid for a pro sports franchise.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2012/09/26/apnewsbreak-ex-dodger-owner-back-in-divorce
-court-yahoo-sports/

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Yankees, contenders race for postseason [Globe]

OK, we're getting down to the wire now. There's one week left in the season, and all five playoff spots in the American League are up for grabs, and the National League still has one opening left to complete the playoff puzzle. Check out my latest, and[...]

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http://www.lennysyankees.com/2012/09/yankees-contenders-race-for-postseason.html

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Astros Minor League Review: Lancaster Jethawks
LHP Colton Cain

As the review of the Lancaster Jethawks marches on today we will take a look at left-handed pitcher Colton Cain. Before we get into how Cain performed this season for the Jethawks let’s first take a look at his past and how he’s performed up to this point. There was a lot of hype surrounding Cain heading into the 2009 draft, but do to a strong commitment to the University of Texas he fell to the eighth round where he was snagged by the Pirates. It took an above slot deal of $1.125 million to lure Cain away from Texas about a week before the signing deadline. Reports on his stuff were that he threw hard for a lefty and his curve flashed potential, but his changeup was a work in progress. He didn’t make his professional debut that season, and had back surgery in the offseason which delayed his professional debut until the latter half of the 2010 season in rookie ball.

Though his velocity was reportedly down from what it was prior to being drafted Cain still had an impressive debut in short-season ball. He made his full season debut in 2011, and though he didn’t dominate he still put up respectable numbers. He pitched 106.1 innings that season and had an ERA of 3.64 with a 2.6 BB/9 and a 6.9 K/9. Fatigue reportedly set in towards the end of that season and he was moved to the bullpen. He was shut down after five unsuccessful relief outings which skewed his overall statistics slightly. That catches us up to this season where Cain started in the Pittsburgh Pirates system at the High-A level.

Cain pitched 75 innings in the Pirates system and posted a mediocre ERA of 4.20 while recording only 51 strikeouts while walking 25. This led to the Pirates deciding to part ways with the young pitcher who they invested heavily in and once had high hopes for as he was packaged with Robbie Grossman and Rudy Owens in a trade to the Houston Astros to obtain lefty Wandy Rodriguez. He was assigned to the Lancaster Jethawks which isn’t quite the ideal place a pitcher would like to go to try and get back on track.

He pitched a total of 35.2 innings for the Jethawks and continued to struggle posting an ERA of 5.55 and an FIP of 5.00. His strikeout rate remaining about the same at 6.31 K/9, but his walk rate jumped up to 4.54 BB/9 with the Jethawks. He was more hittable in his time with the Jethawks as he went from allowing 8.16 hits per nine innings in the Pirates organization to allowing 10.35 hits per nine innings with the Jethawks. Though he did allow quite a few hits in Lancaster only nine of them went for extra bases (5 doubles, 4 homeruns.)

Cain’s biggest struggles this season came against right-handed hitting. He was solid against lefties and posted a 3.54 FIP with Bradenton (Pittsburgh’s High-A affiliate) in 23.1 innings pitched, and a 3.14 FIP in 16 innings pitched for the Jethawks. It was a different story against righties though as he posted a 5.45 FIP in 51.2 innings pitched with Bradenton and a 6.56 FIP in 19.2 innings with the Jethawks. Of the 14 homeruns he allowed this season all but one came against right-handed hitting.

That’s it in a nutshell. Cain’s 2012 campaign was disappointing one and he was unable to build upon a solid though unimpressive full season debut. Even though his total innings pitched only increased from 106.1 last season to 110.2 this season he was healthy for the most part and only missed a few starts in May. Heading into his draft year he was a lefty with nice low-nineties velocity with a solid frame to add a little more, but questions surrounded his off-speed stuff. Three years later those questions still remain as his curveball still flashes potential at times but is inconsistent, and he still hasn’t developed a feel for his changeup. In addition to this his fastball velocity also remains inconsistent. Still at age 21 this season he still has plenty of time to improve. Though it’s not the ideal situation he could repeat High-A ball this season with the Jethawks in an effort to get on the right track. He was the lottery ticket of the Wandy Rodriguez trade and even though the odds may be stacked against them it would be nice to see Jeff Luhnow and the Astros win big on Colton Cain.

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A-Rod gets day off vs Twins with bruised left
foot (Yahoo! Sports)

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — The New York Yankees have held third baseman Alex Rodriguez out of the lineup with a bruised left foot.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2012/09/26/a-rod-gets-day-off-vs-twins-with-bruised-le
ft-foot-yahoo-sports/

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Notable 2012 Astros Minor League Pitching
Performances

There were many notable pitching performances in the Astros minor league system in 2012 as the system as a whole improved dramatically. I think most of us expected a good season from a high profile prospect like Jarred Cosart who, although hampered by blister problems during the season, had good results and earned a promotion to AAA Oklahoma City. And Nick Tropeano did not disappoint in his sophomore season, working his way up through the ranks. Ross Seaton appears to have turned a corner in his development. And Mike Foltynewicz showed us why he was a first round pick in 2010 as he went from a 5-11 record with a 4.97 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 2011 to a 14-4 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.362 WHIP in 2012. And before anyone starts ragging on him for repeating a level, keep in mind that he doesn't turn 21 until October.

But there were many notable performances coming from often unexpected quarters. Let's look at just a few.

Although I wasn't particularly surprised by the success of RHP David Martinez at Lancaster, I was surprised by the level of his success as well as his durability. As a predominantly ground ball pitcher, I felt he was well-suited to pitch at The Hangar, but I didn't expect him to pitch over 90 more innings than he had ever pitched before nor did I expect him to get stronger as the year progressed. Martinez pitched 160 and a third innings, the third most in the Astros minor league organization and ended the regular season with a 9-5 record, a 4.38 ERA and a 1.335 WHIP. However, in his last 10 outings, he was 7-1 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.293 WHIP and he won both of his post-season appearances as well.

Martinez' teammate RHP Tyson Perez was on Baseball America's list last year as a sleeper prospect so I've had my eye on him. What I didn't expect was for him to make the leap from the Rookie League Greeneville Astros in 2011 to Hi-A Lancaster in 2012. Perez equaled Martinez' record of 9-5 and had a 5.03 ERA and a 1.508 WHIP. In the post-season, he was 1-1 (the loss coming in a 1-0 shutout) with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP. Another big difference maker for the Lancaster staff was RHP Carlos Quevedo who joined the team late in the season when the JetHawks desperately needed middle relief. Quevedo did not disappoint as he put up 2.03 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP in 15 games for Lancaster, helping to keep them in wild card contention.

Corpus Christi's success in making it to the post-season was due in large part to the extremely effective one-two punch provided by LHP Kevin Chapman and RHP Jason Stoffel to close out games for Keith Bodie's Hooks. Chapman was 6-3 in 49 appearances with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.397 WHIP while Stoffel compiled 27 saves in 56 appearances, a 2.33 ERA and an outstanding 0.983 WHIP.

Another relief pitcher who opened a few eyes was RHP Mickey Storey. Other than Tim DeBlock I didn't hear too many in the blogosphere singing his praises earlier in the season, but by the time Storey made his major league debut for the Astros on August 3rd, he had everyone's attention after a very effective 38 appearances for Oklahoma City in which he went 7-4 with a 3.05 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 10.0 SO/9 and 5.14 SO/BB rate.

One of the biggest surprises to me was the depth of the 2012 draft class. Third round pick RHP Brady Rodgers was expected to do well as a starter for Tri-City, and he did, but who expected 13th round pick LHP Brian Holmes and 17th round pick RHP Aaron West to put up such remarkable numbers as well. Holmes was 7-2 with a 2.56 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP in 13 appearances (12 starts) and flirted with no-hitters all season. West just edged out Holmes with a 0.957 WHIP to go with a 6-2 record and a remarkable 2.04 ERA in 12 starts.

And the relief pitching from the 2012 draft class was equally accomplished. 22nd round pick LHP Kenny Long quickly made his mark with Tri-City meriting a promotion to Lancaster. In 29 games, he had a combined 1.61 ERA, 0.627 WHIP, 15.3 SO/9 and a 5.43 SO/BB ratio. Long just barely inched out 34th round pick RHP Jordan Jankowski in his strikeout rate as Jankowski only had 14.8 SO/9 in 23 appearances with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.082 WHIP. 33rd round pick RHP Mike Hauschild had a 1.78 ERA, 1.022 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, a 4.33 SO/BB rate and a ridiculous 5.25 GO/AO ratio. RHP Travis Ballew, the 23rd round pick, had a 1.62 ERA, 1.026 WHIP and recorded five wins in relief.

My favorite surprise, though, has to be RHP Bobby Doran. After being relegated to mostly relief duties in Lancaster in 2011 after battling injuries and a rough start to a season in which he went 1-3 with a 9.05 ERA and a 2.010 WHIP, Doran came back strong. In 27 starts between Lancaster and Corpus Christi, Doran tied Mike Foltynewicz for the organizational lead in wins with 14 and had a combined 4.00 ERA and a 1.284 WHIP.

There were other great performances during the season from RHP Chris Devenski's complete game no-hitter in his final start of the season at Lexington to a very good sophomore season from LHP Mitch Lambson to the dominance shown by 18-year old RHP Michael Feliz with the GCL Astros before his promotion to Greeneville, among others.

Again, you can argue whether or not you think some of these players will continue to progress and build on their terrific performances in 2012 but, to me, the results indicate that there is more depth and maturity of pitching in the Astros farm system than there has been in quite a while. I am extremely encouraged by the great contributions from players who aren't necessarily considered top prospects in the organization.

For more on the Astros minor league system, visit What the Heck, Bobby? or follow me on twitter @whattheheck57.

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