1988 Scores Salute To Reggie Jackson Card #1

1988 Score’s Salute To Reggie Jackson – Card #1Oakland Athletics: 1968-1975This card features a vintage photo of a young Reggie in his old-school Oakland Athletics uniform.  The card design is nice, and I like the flag pole border used to celebrate the years that Reggie played for this team.  I just wish they gave us [...]

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http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2009/10/26/1988-scores-salute-to-reggie-jackson-c
ard-1/

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Putting Derek Lowes 2009 in Context

Everyone knows (I hope) that pitchers’ ERA’s fluctuate a great deal more than their fundamental skills.  Due to the pseudo-randomness of hitting singles, pitchers more or less have no control over whether or not a batted ball in play results in an out or a single.  Doubles and triples are clearly different, but singles are–whether [...]

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CapitolAvenueClub/~3/p1ZiPD_hAT4/

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Can Drew Stubbs be as Good as Joey Votto

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

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We all know Joey Votto was by far the best player on the Reds this past season.  He single-handedly carried the offense on his broad and capable shoulders.  Some say he is more than a man but less than a god, like some kind of demi-god, or archangel, or X-man.  He posted an impressive 4.4 WAR according to FanGraphs.  That is solid All-Star-level production.  Joey Votto is good at baseball.  But is he really the best player on the team?  Consider the following:

Drew Stubbs came up in mid-August and saw action in just 42 games.  He looked all right at the plate, holding his own and posting a slash line of .267/.323/.439.  That OPS of .762 is nearly identical to his career minor league OPS of .765.  Of course, he hit for more power and got on base less (his career minor league line is .269/.364/.401), but considering the small sample size it's still a pretty accurate reflection of the skill set he showed in the minors.  This isnt a wild aberration like Chris Dickerson's debut in '08, and I think it is totally reasonable to believe he can continue to hit like a league-average hitter.  His solid walk rate (he's never had an OBP lower than .353 at any minor-league level), decent-but-not-shabby ISO (steadily around .150), steady K-rates, and  luminous BABIP rates (kid gets a ton of infield hits) scream "consistent" to me.  He is precisely the kind of hitter whose minor league numbers translate well to the majors.

His early projections for next year aren't as optimistic about his future performance though.  ZiPS sees him posting a measly .653 OPS for next season.  As we talked about a few days ago, Bill James projects him much better, foreseeing a .726 OPS.  Not as good as his small-sample-sized performance from the end of '09, but not as Taverasian as ZiPS thinks.  Now, normally I trust these advanced projection systems more than I trust my gut, but on this one I think they are missing the mark.  I think, for the reasons stated above, Stubbs is far more likely to OPS around .750 than .650. 

So if Stubbs hits like a league-average hitter, then how can he be as good as Joey Votto, the Joey Votto who OPS'd .981, posted a .418 wOBA, and stole my heart?  

Checking the WAR leaderboards over at FanGraphs, one particular player really caught my eye.  He was the most valuable center fielder in the Major Leagues last year.  He's not Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, or Matt Kemp.  He's not Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, or B.J. Upton.  He's Franklin Gutierrez, and he's the best gloveman in the league. 

Gutierrez OPS'd .764 last season, his first as a Mariner.  He was a tick above league-average with the bat, accumulating 6.3 BRAR.  But boy, he was a '64 Fender Stratocaster in classic white with triple single-coil pickups and a wammy bar in the field.  He posted 28.5 FRAR in 153 games, the best mark in all of baseball at any position.  This was good for 5.8 total WAR. 

Stubbs was nearly equal to Gutierrez with the glove last season, albeit in a small sample size.  Stubbs posted a UZR of 7.7 in just 42 games, which extrapolates into a UZR/150 of 22.3.  Of course, it is not a foregone conclusion that Stubbs can keep up that level of glovesmanship over a full season.  But all the scouting reports say that he can.  Since he was drafted in '06 (ahead of Tim Lincecum), he's been heralded as a future gold-glover.  It is not good science to take such a small sample and use it as a representative sample, but in this case I think Stubbs really is that good.  His minor league TotalZone numbers think so (found at minorleaguesplits), the scouts think so, and so I think so.

So Gutierrez had the best season according to WAR of any center fielder in the league last season, and his game is nearly identical to that of Drew Stubbs.  A league-average bat and an elite glove at a premium position makes for a very valuable player. 

So what is the takeaway from all this?  At the very least, we can see how there is much, much more to winning baseball games than just hitting the ball with the bat.  Votto is an elite hitter, but he plays a weak defensive position and is merely average there in comparison to his peers.  Stubbs is the exact opposite of Votto, with an average bat and an elite glove.  I'm not ready to seriously consider Stubbs to be the same caliber of player that Votto is (though it makes for a hooky title), but I can envision a future, as early as next season, where this is the case.

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Happy BirthdayOctober 26

Frank Selee (1859)Kid Gleason (1866)Lee Tannehill (1880)Dick Hoblitzel (1888)Tommy Griffith (1889)Herb Bremer (1913)Snuffy Stirnweiss (1918)Bud Byerly (1920)Toby Harrah (1948)Mike Hargrove (1949)Steve Rogers (1949)Harry Chappas (1957)Gil Heredia (1965)Mark Sweeney (1969)Francisco Liriano (1983)

Pitcher Francisco Liriano was born in San Cristobal in the Dominican Republic.  He was signed by the San Francisco Giants in 2000.  His early minor-league [...]

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http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/10/26/happy-birthday-october-26/

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18 days later, Astros owner, Drayton McLane,
still doesn't get it

via images.chron.com

View full size photo uploaded October 25, 2009

If I would have know how prescient it would be when I wrote it, I probably wouldn't have.  But I wrote it, and now we have to deal with the fact that Drayton McLane still hasn't figured it out.

How much money is spent or how good the team has been in years past, is not actually what determines the on field product.  What determines the on field product is the quality of assets that are currently being invested in.

$100 million for Carlos Lee.  $16.5 million of Kaz Matsui.  $800,000 for Cecil Cooper in 2010.  Easily $8 million over the last two years on throwaway, scrap heap, rehab projects to fill out the rotation, bullpen, and bench.  Taking on two years of Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde.  These are all the investments that Drayton McLane was willing to fund, seemingly no questions asked.

From everything that I've read from everyone who has any access to the Astros front office, Ed Wade, et al. wanted Acta.  Acta, by all accounts, wanted to be back with the Astros, but Acta also had his future to look out for, too.

If we were to some how discover what the exact dollar figure on the third year Acta was bargaining for, I'm sure we would collectively slam our heads against our desks/walls/keyboards with so much force that it'd probably register on the richter scale.

It's not that I am/was/will be convinced of the righteousness of Manny Acta.  I don't doubt the ability of Brad Mills to be a great manager.  I also don't think Phil Garner's rehiring would be the end of the world.  Now, I don't think rehiring Garner would be a great thing, because I don't think that Phil Garner was a good manager.  He was always an average, to below average guy in my book.  I always saw his fate as the fate of something determined by his place at and timing. Were it not for Drayton scrambling for scape goats, I don't doubt that Garner might still be around.  We get can into the why's of my thoughts on Garner's managerial capabilities, but it's not the point.  It's not what bothers me about this.

What bothers me is this: Drayton McLane continues to show an inability to take intelligent risks, to invest wisely, and trust the people he pays to make sound decisions.  We've done a lot of talking about signaling.  That's probably because we have too many econ-based readers, but it's the truth none the less.

Garner is a bad signal.  He's a bad signal because it shows a lack of willingness to try something new.  To push forward and reinvent the team.  It's some sort of half-hearted attempt to make an amend to a man who was probably wronged in his firing, but it's the wrong way to make amends.  Amend, after all, means to change.  Taking Phil Garner back as our manager means that the Astros are going to keep sticking it out in the same "we can win with what we've got" mentality in my mind's eye.  Maybe that's incorrect, but I don't think I'm that far off the mark.

Hiring Manny Acta, on the other hand, signals the exact opposite.  It signals that the Astros are willing to invest in a young, charismatic, smart, well-liked, manager who could man the helm for years to come.  That would be change. Acta seemed like a guy who wasn't worried about bucking convention, and that feels like something this team desperately needs in the next few years.

Instead, yesterday, Astros fans were given a clear signal from Drayton McLane.  The signal is that he still doesn't get it.  My gut feeling is that he never will.  I guess I can't blame him.  He got to ride the gravy train of the Bagwell/Biggio years with hometown-hero discounts, cheaper to maintain farm systems, and had the added bonus of a stadium honeymoon period.  There was no lesson to be learned.  

Thankfully, I assume that he can only go a few more years before he starts looking for potential suitors, and maybe at that time we'll get an owner who stops resting on his laurels, which, in every quote I've ever heard/read Drayton make in the last two or three years, he does.  I'll be the first person to admit it: Drayton's been a successful owner.  He's given us a great franchise during most of his tenure, and has, at times, spent lavishly.  But that doesn't actually make him a great owner.  It just makes him an owner who was able to play the hand he was dealt well.  The test of greatness, though, is the ability to adapt.

At the end of the day, I get the feeling that this wasn't about the money.  Instead, I get the feeling that this was more about philosophy.  Drayton McLane's philosophy will continue to dominate baseball operations and thwart the necessary innovation, creativity, and inherent risk-taking that will possibly be necessary for this ball club to be worth the cost of admission in the next few years.  It seems like Drayton doesn't see it that way.  And that's a real shame—for us.

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13 days later, Astros owner, Drayton McLane,
still doesn't get it

via images.chron.com

View full size photo uploaded October 25, 2009

If I would have know how prescient it would be when I wrote it, I probably wouldn't have.  But I wrote it, and now we have to deal with the fact that Drayton McLane still hasn't figured it out.

How much money is spent or how good the team has been in years past, is not actually what determines the on field product.  What determines the on field product is the quality of assets that are currently being invested in.

$100 million for Carlos Lee.  $16.5 million of Kaz Matsui.  $800,000 for Cecil Cooper in 2010.  Easily $8 million over the last two years on throwaway, scrap heap, rehab projects to fill out the rotation, bullpen, and bench.  Taking on two years of Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde.  These are all the investments that Drayton McLane was willing to fund, seemingly no questions asked.

From everything that I've read from everyone who has any access to the Astros front office, Ed Wade, et al. wanted Acta.  Acta, by all accounts, wanted to be back with the Astros, but Acta also had his future to look out for, too.

If we were to some how discover what the exact dollar figure on the third year Acta was bargaining for, I'm sure we would collectively slam our heads against our desks/walls/keyboards with so much force that it'd probably register on the richter scale.

It's not that I am/was/will be convinced of the righteousness of Manny Acta.  I don't doubt the ability of Brad Mills to be a great manager.  I also don't think Phil Garner's rehiring would be the end of the world.  Now, I don't think rehiring Garner would be a great thing, because I don't think that Phil Garner was a good manager.  He was always an average, to below average guy in my book.  I always saw his fate as the fate of something determined by his place at and timing. Were it not for Drayton scrambling for scape goats, I don't doubt that Garner might still be around.  We get can into the why's of my thoughts on Garner's managerial capabilities, but it's not the point.  It's not what bothers me about this.

What bothers me is this: Drayton McLane continues to show an inability to take intelligent risks, to invest wisely, and trust the people he pays to make sound decisions.  We've done a lot of talking about signaling.  That's probably because we have too many econ-based readers, but it's the truth none the less.

Garner is a bad signal.  He's a bad signal because it shows a lack of willingness to try something new.  To push forward and reinvent the team.  It's some sort of half-hearted attempt to make an amend to a man who was probably wronged in his firing, but it's the wrong way to make amends.  Amend, after all, means to change.  Taking Phil Garner back as our manager means that the Astros are going to keep sticking it out in the same "we can win with what we've got" mentality in my mind's eye.  Maybe that's incorrect, but I don't think I'm that far off the mark.

Hiring Manny Acta, on the other hand, signals the exact opposite.  It signals that the Astros are willing to invest in a young, charismatic, smart, well-liked, manager who could man the helm for years to come.  That would be change. Acta seemed like a guy who wasn't worried about bucking convention, and that feels like something this team desperately needs in the next few years.

Instead, yesterday, Astros fans were given a clear signal from Drayton McLane.  The signal is that he still doesn't get it.  My gut feeling is that he never will.  I guess I can't blame him.  He got to ride the gravy train of the Bagwell/Biggio years with hometown-hero discounts, cheaper to maintain farm systems, and had the added bonus of a stadium honeymoon period.  There was no lesson to be learned.  

Thankfully, I assume that he can only go a few more years before he starts looking for potential suitors, and maybe at that time we'll get an owner who stops resting on his laurels, which, in every quote I've ever heard/read Drayton make in the last two or three years, he does.  I'll be the first person to admit it: Drayton's been a successful owner.  He's given us a great franchise during most of his tenure, and has, at times, spent lavishly.  But that doesn't actually make him a great owner.  It just makes him an owner who was able to play the hand he was dealt well.  The test of greatness, though, is the ability to adapt.

At the end of the day, I get the feeling that this wasn't about the money.  Instead, I get the feeling that this was more about philosophy.  Drayton McLane's philosophy will continue to dominate baseball operations and thwart the necessary innovation, creativity, and inherent risk-taking that will possibly be necessary for this ball club to be worth the cost of admission in the next few years.  It seems like Drayton doesn't see it that way.  And that's a real shame—for us.

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Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 10/26/09

I’m still on top in the vegasinsider.com college rundown, winning both the percentage and net units category. I’m now at +1610 and hitting 74% for the entire season with the plays I post there. I do need to point out that I don’t post all my plays there, and I don’t want to mislead anyone into thinking I’m hitting that percentage on all my plays. But suffice to say I’m very pleased with the way things are going overall, and I’m looking forward to another strong week on the college side.

I would definitely recommend buying the plays at vegasinsider or at ecappermall.com ( I post the same plays at both sites) particularly if you’re a smaller player. More serious bettors should find out about dealing with me directly, particularly with hoops about to get underway. Just leave your contact info and I’ll get in touch to discuss what’s available.

A couple of other notes. My Blowout of the Week is now 6-1-1 for the season, and I’m 10-3 on the other “special” games I’ve advertised. The free college plays posted here are now 5-3 with a very easy winner on Temple this past Saturday.

On the NFL side, I continue to be a coin flip at best and the free play on the Raiders was hysterically awful. This may sound like a stupid thing to say considering I’m in the business of selling picks. But I would definitely NOT recommend anyone buying my NFL stuff. It’s just not worth even a minimal investment. On the flip side, you’ll have a tough time finding anyone who can break down the colleges as well as I can. Safe to say that after roughly 30 years of doing this professionally, plus a good decade or so prior to that just playing on my own, I know my strengths and weaknesses.

Okay, on to some quick hits of what took place on the field this past week in the colleges.

The week started with a pair of dramatic comebacks. UTEP rallied from a double digit final quarter deficit to overtake Tulsa. Florida State played a sensational second half as they came from way down to get past North Carolina. On Saturday, the big comeback was by Northwestern. The Wildcats were trailing Indiana 28-3 in the second quarter, but scored 26 unanswered points, including a very late FG, to escape with a 29-28 win. Ball State also came from behind with 2 TD’s sandwiched around a safety as they nipped Eastern Michigan by a deuce. San Diego State was down 21-7 at halftime vs. Colorado State, and the Aztecs had lost their best WR to a wrist injury. But Ryan Lindley was awesome after halftime as SDSU outscored the Rams 35-7 in the second stanza en route to an impressive road win. The most important comeback was clearly the one staged by Iowa, as the unbeaten Hawkeyes scored a TD on the final play to defeat Michigan State.

There were also a trio of rallies that fell just short. Buffalo kicked a FG on the final play of regulation to force overtime at Western Michigan. But the Bulls missed a kick in the the extra session, and the Broncos made theirs for a dramatic win. Louisiana Tech dug themselves a hole at Utah State. But the Bulldogs had a chance to forge a tie with a successful two-point conversion. The Aggies turned them away, however, and held on a for the narrow win at Logan. The most noteworthy near miss was in the Tennessee-Alabama game. The Volunteers had two kicks blocked in the final quarter, including one right at the end of the game, and the Crimson Tide escaped with a 12-10 win. By the way, ‘Bama had better fix their pathetic red zone offense or they’re going to get knocked off by someone.

The bad beat of the week was absorbed by those wagering on Northern Illinois. The Huskies had the  number covered against Miami Ohio. But the Redhawks hit a 24 yard TD pass on the last play to slip inside the number. The best game of the week had to be Clemson-Miami, which was one of those last time with the ball wins type of games. The Tigers ended up hitting a TD pass on  a 3rd and 11 in overtime to get the victory over the Hurricanes in a classic shootout.

Finally, the worst performance of the week was unquestionably the one turned in by Nebraska. Iowa State was without their two best offensive players, and several Cyclones were physically ill with a nasty flu bug that infiltrated the team. But the Cornhuskers managed to blow the game as huge favorites thanks to one of the most inept efforts in that proud program’s history. Nebraska had an astounding eight turnovers in the game, including four inside the Iowa State five-yard line!

I’ll have a couple of special edition blogs the next two days with the focus on the start of the NBA season.

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Solar Sox Summary

Where they stand: Last week, Mesa went 2-4. For the season, the Solar Sox are 4-7, third (last) in the AFL East, three games behind first-place Phoenix.

There continue to be obvious issues of sample size, as there will be all season. Eleven games is over 30 percent of the AFL schedule.

Who's hot: Chris Parmelee batted [...]

Read The Full Article:
http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/10/26/solar-sox-summary-13/

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The Yankees Win The Pennant! The Yankees Win The
Pennant!

Posted in Yankees Postseason Tagged: '09 MLB Postsseason, ALCS

Read The Full Article:
http://zellspinstripeblog.com/2009/10/26/the-yankees-win-the-pennant-the-yankees-
win-the-pennant/

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Yankees Win ALCS; Pettitte Wins 16th Postseason
Game

It was really no shock to see the Yankees on the winning side of the 5-2 score last night at Yankee Stadium in their defeat of the Angels.

Neither team showed much power in the home run haven with the Yankees and the Angels combining for 16 singles among the 18 hits in the game.

Yankees Advance To 40th World Series

The Yankees advanced to their 40th World Series behind the pitching of Andy Pettitte who signed for less to remain with the Yankees knowing he had a better chance to reach the postseason. Pettitte pitched into the seventh inning allowing only one run.

Pettitte became the leader in postseason wins with his 16th win and he could add to that number in the World Series.

Pettitte Took Huge Paycut In 2009

Pettitte who earned $16 million in 2008 signed for $5.5 million in 2009 with incentives that he mostly met increasing his salary to the $10.5 million range. He missed by 16 innings of having met all his innings pitched incentives.

Sabathia Wins ALCS MVP

C.C. Sabathia won the ALCS MVP Award for his 2-0, 1.13 ERA performance in the ALCS.

Jeff Mathis was the best hitter in the ALCS hitting .583 and led all players in doubles with five. He also led in on base percentage with a .583 mark and slugging at 1.000 and OPS at 1.583. The most amazing stat is that he did it in only 12 at bats.

Vladimir Guerrero led in hits with 10. Robinson Cano led in triples with two.

Alex Rodriguez led in homers with three and in runs batted in with six. He also led in walks with eight.

Sabathia To Be Tested

By Phillies Hitters

C.C. Sabathia may have a tough task ahead of him to silence the bats of the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

The two teams are closely matched in postseason batting statistics. Both teams have hit 14 home runs. The two teams have both played nine games but the Yankees have 33 more at bats due to the extra inning games they played.

The Yankees have outhit the Phillies .262 to .261 but the Phillies have outslugged the Yankees .478 to .441.

Sabathia vs. Lee In Opener

The first game should be a pitcher’s battle with C.C. Sabathia 3-0, 1.19 facing Cliff Lee 2-0, 0.74 on the mound.

Pedro Martinez 0-0, 0.00 has only pitched in one of the nine Phillies postseason games but will have to pitch more often for the Phillies to defeat the Yankees. He really should be second in the rotation behind Lee and he has earned the spot with his scoreless pitching.

Cole Hamels 1-1, 6.75 has started three games and has allowed 6 home runs in 14 innings which does not bode well with him facing the power laden Yankee lineup in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.

A.J. Burnett should start the second game for the Yankees with his 0-0, 4.42 record and has issued 10 walks in 18 innings.

Pettitte To Pitch Philadelphia Opener

Andy Pettitte 2-0, 2.37 should pitch the opener in Philadelphia later this week.

Rodriguez Has One More Hit Than Victorino

Rodriguez is tied for the postseason lead in hits with 14 with Vladimir Guerrero with Shane Victorino next with 13. He and Jayson Werth are tied for the lead in postseason home runs with five each.

If the World Series goes to seven games we could see C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee face each other three times.

The World Series could depend on which pitcher has the better World Series.

Rivera-Lidge Closer Battle

The closer battle between Mariano Rivera and Brad Lidge should be interesting with Rivera a more sure thing than Lidge. It will be interesting to see how Lidge reacts to the pressure of pitching in Yankee Stadium.

Rivera Better At Handling Pressure

Rivera may have a bad game but it won’t be because he can’t handle the pressure because no closer in the history of baseball has pitched in more pressure packed situations than Rivera.

We won’t know for sure until the games are played but it looks like we are in for a great 2009 World Series.

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