My Jim Palmer Player Collection Is Finally
Complete!!! YES!!!

My Jim Palmer Player Collection Is Finally Complete!!!  YES!!! After more than two years, and a lot of outbid auctions, I can proudly say that I have completed my Jim Palmer player collection. In this set of cards that pays … Continue reading →

Read The Full Article:
http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2011/11/24/my-jim-palmer-player-collection-is-fin
ally-complete-yes/

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!

Marlins Offseason Success Plan: The
Morrison/Sanchez Trade Dilemma

As we continue discussing the Fish Stripes Marlins Plan for Offseason Success, we get to one of the most contentious parts of the plan. The Marlins have a problem of surplus, which is often times a good problem to have in the majors. They have a problem that they have recently discussed resolving. They have n issue that most fans see but few fans, myself included, truly know how to resolve. The Marlins have an intriguing surplus of first basemen.

This may not necessarily be apparent by the way the team was constructed last season. After all, Gaby Sanchez was very clearly the Marlins' first baseman for the last two seasons. However, this is because the Fish have forced a square peg into a round hole in left field by fitting fellow first baseman Logan Morrison into the outfield. From the observation of fans and numbers, he had a mixed season on defense, but it was certainly a net negative for the Marlins.

Depending on the severity of his below average defense in left field, the Marlins may have to make a decision on which player they will stay with at first base. If they do choose one, they will have to trade the other, and the rumors regarding a trade are already flying. So if the Marlins have to make a choice, who should they deal and what can they get in return? It all depends on what type of impact the Fish want to make with a trade.

Why Trade?

The most obvious reason why the Marlins should make a deal is that they have a hidden surplus at the first base position with two guys in Morrison and Sanchez and only one realistic defensive spot to place either. Moving one to another position, such as what the Fish did with Morrison, may end poorly defensively, and if the Marlins want to get the most value out of both players, they may be best off sending one away to fill another hole on the team.

It just so happens that most fans see another need for the Marlins in terms of starting pitching. With the uncertainty of Josh Johnson's health, Ricky Nolasco's unstable performance, and Anibal Sanchez's future with the team, the Marlins may very well be in the market for a starting pitcher. The added bonus in this situation is that the Marlins could acquire a pitcher that would be team-controlled at low costs instead of one purchased via free agency at market value. Such pitchers are not easy to find, but it just so happens that the Oakland Athletics are offering a starter like that in Gio Gonzalez. In addition, the Marlins are also interested in acquiring James Shields, who is still cheap for his current contract, though the likelihood of this occurring is slim.

Why Not Trade?

The premise of making a deal is considering whether the club really has two first basemen instead of a first baseman and a left fielder. If Morrison remains a capable left fielder like some sources are pointing out, then the Marlins would merely be filling one hole in their roster while opening another. Position aside, Morrison is the perfect type of player for a cost-sensitive team like the Fish, since he is young, talented, and under team control for five more seasons. If the Marlins were to trade him, they would want a similar caliber player, but if the move is largely sideways in that it makes for a difficult position hole to fill, then it would not interest the Marlins.

This situation is compounded by the fact that the Marlins do not have a surplus of depth in the outfield. Without making an expensive signing, the team would be depending on Emilio Bonifacio, Scott Cousins, and Bryan Petersen to fill the center and left field spots in the absence of Morrison either due to trade or move to first base. While each of those players have their positives, it is unlikely that they will be average or better contributors in the majors in the years to come, leaving them as just stopgaps instead of long-term solutions.

A trade would also depend on the return, and the Marlins do seem unwilling to deal Morrison without a king's ransom coming back. If the Marlins opt to trade the less valuable Sanchez instead, the return would be underwhelming and perhaps poor enough that making a move may not benefit the team as well. A Sanchez trade may require packaging with significant prospects to land the talent that Morrison could return on his own, and the Marlins may not be willing to spare what little talent they already have in the minors to make that acquisition.

What is the Plan?

So what should the Marlins ultimately do? Again, it really depends on their evaluation of Morrison's defense. From my viewpoint, he is well below average and difficult to watch in left field, but other sources say that he is more palatable. Even as a somewhat below average defender, Morrison's bat can sustain him and the team would not have to make a move at this time. But if he is as bad as UZR or TotalZone have been judging him (on the order of 10 to 15 runs below average in not even a full year), then the Marlins would be better off trading one of those two players.

If they do and they want a major league return for next season, the team will have to make a choice between the two:

- Trade Morrison and receive an attractive, cost-controlled option like Gonzalez in return

- Trade Sanchez for a short-term solution at higher costs.

Before the season started last year, I advocated trading Sanchez for Michael Bourn, saying that the Marlins would actually be giving up value to acquire Bourn for Sanchez, but that it would have properly placed numerous players at their appropriate positions. Later in the season, Bourn was dealt with one year of team control left for a meager package of pitching prospects and former center field prospect Jordan Schafer. Had the Marlins pulled the trigger by giving up Sanchez and one of their questionable but promising pitching prospects, the team may have been able to acquire Bourn.

I bring this up because this is the sort of acquisition the Marlins could still make with Sanchez. He has four seasons of team control left, but since he is older, those seasons are his peak years, meaning he does not have a whole lot more improvement left in him. Packaging him with a prospect could net the Marlins a one- or two-year rental player that could fill a hole like Bourn but at a decent cost and for not a lot of time. Expecting anything more is asking too much.

On the other hand, trading Morrison would net the Marlins a significant, including possibly a cost-controlled young starter like Gio Gonzalez. Naturally, the Marlins would have to give up a talented, cheap player like Morrison to get similarly talented players in return, but the difference between Morrison and Sanchez at first base, especially in two or three seasons, will likely be significant.

The Gio Gonzalez Example

Gio Gonzalez poses an interesting example. He will be under team control for four more seasons, though he will be arbitration eligible in each of those years as a "Super Two" player. He will be 26 years old for most of 2012, meaning he is young but not so young that improvement is guaranteed, as pitchers do not generally age as well as position players and may actually begin declining in their late 20's. The Marlins would give up a 24-year old position player with five seasons of team control remaining for a player who will start off earning an estimated $4.2 million in arbitration in 2012.

Using some rough estimates of value for both players over the next four and five seasons, it is likely that Morrison outstrips the surplus value of Gonzalez by about $15 to 20 million. In this case, it would seem as though the Marlins were right to say no if indeed they were asked about Morrison straight up for Gonzalez. Still, Gonzalez would seem to be the best available fit, and if the Marlins wanted to make it work, they could work out a package in return for Morrison that would be more fitting for his value. Nevertheless, a one-for-one deal would again not be in the Marlins' favor.

Still a Question Mark

After all this discussion, I am still unsure about making a trade. I am of the opinion that the Marlins need to trade one of the two because Morrison is a very poor left fielder, but with the statistical disagreement, it would be up to scouts to tell me whether or not he can handle the position in the future. If the Marlins try to find a lower-end trade partner for a package including Gaby Sanchez, this may be of interest, but at the moment it does not seem any team is intrigued by him. The difficulty of the situation is such that the team may end up just playing both players in their same spots and looking into the free agent market to fill their supposed pitching needs.

What do you Fish Stripes readers think? Would it be wise to deal one of these two players in return for pitching? Is Morrison bad enough in left field to necessitate a move to first base? Can a package including Sanchez bring a rental return worth losing four years of cost-controlled, above-average play? Tell us your thoughts.

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!

Transactions Notes 11/17/11 - 11/23/11:
Arbitration, Reserves Deadline, CBA

For the first time in a while, the Rockies (and MLB in general) had a busy week in terms of transactions. In addition to rule 5 protection and arbitration offers to outgoing free agents, a new collective bargaining agreement has been announced. Most of you are probably familiar with most of its content by this point, but I will go ahead and break down some of the important transaction related notes.

11/18/11
- Christian Friedrich purchased and recalled from Tulsa Drillers.
- Edwar Cabrera purchased and recalled from Modesto Nuts.
- Andrew Brown outrighted to Colorado Springs Sky Sox.
- Brandon Wood signed to a minor league contract.

This was the Reserves Deadline. Every team in MLB chose which players they wanted to protect from December's Rule 5 draft before the roster prevented minor league promotions. The Rockies began the day with three open spots. They filled two with the most obvious Rule 5 protectees in Friedrich and Cabrera. Unlike last year where the Rockies protected six players (if you include the addition of Cole Garner before he declared free agency), the team chose to leave roster room open for future moves rather than fill it up and having to make cuts later.

The team was not required to activate Eliezer Alfonzo from the Restricted List; however, he may be counting towards the 40 Man Roster anyway at this point. Because the Rockies never reached 40 players during this period, it's difficult to tell. Nevertheless, this shows that the Rockies are at least intending to hang onto Alfonzo through his appeal. Alfonzo has only served 15 games of his 100 game suspension. Unless the suspension is overturned during the offseason, he will be ineligible to play until late June.

In addition to adding Cabrera and Friedrich to the roster, the team chose to outright offseason waiver claim Andrew Brown from the roster, taking it down to 38 players. Brown has never been outrighted previously, nor does he have anywhere near enough service time to refuse the assignment. Therefore, the outfielder returns to his minor league contract, which will expire after the 2013 season. He becomes eligible for this year's Rule 5 draft.

Finally, the Rockies officially signed former top prospect Brandon Wood to a minor league contract. Though there is no official report of an invitation to Spring Training, he will almost certainly receive one, and may even be a legitimate contender for the 2012 third base role. If he makes the team, Wood will make about $520,000, more expensive than the minimum but far cheaper than what Ian Stewart will cost.

I have not seen any official confirmation that former Twins outfielder Brandon Roberts has signed his contract, but he is still expected to join the team on another minor league deal sometime soon.

After the jump, I'll discuss Ty Wigginton, Mark Ellis, the CBA and more on the Rule 5 draft.

11/20/11
- Ty Wigginton traded to Philadelphia Phillies.

The Wigginton trade is something many of us expected to occur this offseason. The Rockies will be eating half of the utility player's $4 million salary, giving us a couple more million to spend over the next few months. The wording of the trade is a bit confusing, but my understanding is that we will received a player to be named later (defaulting to cash after about six months), with the possibility of receiving further rewards if the Phillies pick up Wigginton's 2013 option year. The roster returns to 37 players.

The final important note of the week involves the new collective bargaining agreement. The CBA will remove Elias-based free agent compensation after this year, with a couple of notable changes beginning immediately. None of those changes directly impact the Rockies; Mark Ellis, our only outgoing free agent ranked by the Elias system, remains a Type B free agent, and because he signed with the Dodgers before the arbitration offer period, the Rockies are automatically awarded a supplementary first round "sandwich" draft pick this upcoming year. Recent supplementary first round picks have included Rex Brothers and Trevor Story.

This will be the last pick the Rockies will be awarded this way, as the compensation rules change next year. With compensation being awarded upon a player turning down a specific and high one year offer, the amount of outgoing players in general producing compensation will drop dramatically, not to mention the necessity of those players to have been with the team in question for the entire season, which disallows sneaky moves like the Blue Jays' acquisition of Miguel Olivo after the 2010 season.

Important changes that could be relevant to the Rockies right now include special conditions around the status of Type A Free Agents Kelly Johnson and Josh Willingham. Neither player is guaranteed to receive extra attention from the front office, as both will require significant contracts over multiple years, but under the transitional change rules as we abandon the Elias system, neither player would cost the Rockies a draft pick. Though the Rockies' first round pick is protected regardless, this would protect the Rockies from losing a second round pick to the Blue Jays.

Finally, here is an updated list of every player who will be eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 Draft in a few weeks:

RHP Albert Campos
RHP Alan DeRatt
RHP Stephen Dodson
RHP Marco Duarte
RHP Raul Fernandez
RHP Ricardo Ferrer
RHP Parker Frazier
RHP Leuris Gomez (re-signed ???)
RHP Juan Gonzalez
RHP Nelson Gonzalez
RHP Andy Graham
RHP Kyle Hancock (re-signed ???)
RHP Will Harris
RHP Dan Houston
RHP Adam Jorgenson
RHP Sheng-An Kuo
RHP Michael Marbry
RHP Vianney Mayo
RHP Dustin Molleken (re-signed 11/4)
RHP Greg Reynolds (outrighted 10/5)
RHP Cory Riordan (outrighted 10/5)
RHP Chad Rose
RHP Rafael Suarez
RHP Josh Sullivan (re-signed 11/4)
RHP Joe Torres (re-signed 11/12)
RHP Daniel Turpen
RHP Aaron Weatherford
RHP Joey Williamson
RHP Kurt Yacko

LHP Craig Bennigson
LHP Isaiah Froneberger
LHP Jonathan Vargas
LHP Keith Weiser

C Lars Davis
C Michael Ramirez
C Beau Seabury

IF Cristhian Adames (may not be eligible)
IF James Cesario
IF Brad Emaus
IF Darin Holcomb (expected to retire)
IF Carlos Martinez (re-signed ???)
IF Angelys Nina
IF Ryan Rohlinger (outrighted 8/27)
IF Kiel Roling
IF Warren Schaeffer
IF Helder Velazquez
IF Erik Wetzel
IF Brandon Wood (signed 11/18)
IF Mike Zuanich

OF Andrew Brown (outrighted 11/18)
OF David Christensen
OF Juan Crousset
OF Robert De La Cruz
OF Matt McBride (acquired in Jimenez trade)
OF Michael Mitchell
OF Brian Rike
OF Brandon Roberts (assuming he signs)
OF Scott Robinson
OF Francisco Sosa
OF Luis Terrero (signed 10/18)

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!

Andre Dawson 2011 Topps Update Kimball Champions
mini

Andre Dawson 2011 Topps Update – Kimball Champions mini I nabbed the card of Dawson from Series 1 a few months ago so of course I was going to go after the second one issued in Series 2. Here it … Continue reading →

Read The Full Article:
http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2011/11/24/andre-dawson-2011-topps-update-kimball
-champions-mini/

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!

Podcast Ep. 24: Happy Thanksgiving!

We intended on having a fresh, new Podcast ready to play for you while you were enjoying your turkey and mashed potatoes, and it looks like that'll happen. This week on the show Dave and Matt discussed the new CBA, the MVP awards and some free agent[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/11/24/2584960/podcast-ep-24-happy-thanksgiv
ing

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!

Thanksgiving Rockpile: Enjoy your holiday!

Happy Thanksgiving!

On Sunday, I will follow up on Jeff's reaction yesterday to the new CBA with one of my own,  as I'm not entirely convinced that this is the death knell to competitive balance that he and some others make it out to be. To give a brief preview, I think there are aspects to the new CBA that savvy small market teams can take advantage of in ways that large market teams will be on level footing, and of course the draft lottery does provide one key small market resource that will be unavailable to large market teams at all. In the prior CBA, there was nothing whatsoever that gave small market teams any inherent advantage over teams that could spend more. Draft compensation, international free agency, going over slot on later round draft picks, all this will inevitably wind up favoring high revenue teams, and while the new CBA doesn't completely address this (nor should it, in my opinion,) it is a step in the right direction compared to the last CBA.

Holidays are typically slow sections of the hot stove league, as such there's just a DWL and non-sign update today.

The Rockies had mild interest in Bruce Chen before he re-signed with Kansas City. Chen was among the interesting below the radar names that got brought up among the free agent arms. Among those, Paul Maholm and Rich Harden still stand out, and both are still available. I still have doubts about even this level of FA pitcher accepting a deal to pitch in Denver, but I think they're at least a bit more realistic than Roy Oswalt.

Wilin Rosario has certainly cooled off after a hot start to his Dominican Winter League season, Rosario had a golden sombrero the game before drawing two walks and scoring a run in yesterday's victory. He has a streak of eight straight contests with at least one strikeout, racking up a total of 15 in that span. On offense, that lack of contact will limit his ceiling, but it's possible for him to gain some back by consistently showing the kind of walk drawing ability he did yesterday.

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!

Linear Weights and Dividing Offensive Credit

Last week, I discussed the two questions you should ask when you are trying to evaluate any problem with numbers, whether in the world of baseball or the so-called "real world" (like there's a real world outside of baseball). Here is what I said about evaluating a player's total performance.

As a a result, the takeaway here is the following: if you want to measure how productive a player is (and this is generally what people mean when they ask about how "good" a player is), you need to find a measure that converts all of his offensive and defensive performances into runs, which can then be converted into wins.

I then said that we would tackle how to approach turning a player's production into runs this week, and that is exactly what we'll be doing here. But why do we need a "sabermetric" method for dividing up runs? Why can we not just use the classic staple of runs and RBI in this case? After all, they have the right units, right?

In order to clarify this question, we need to go back to our previous discussion and ask those two pertinent questions again: 

1. Always ask yourself what question am I trying to answer and what stat can I use to answer that question before discussing.

Let's apply these to a basic baseball situation.

Side Note: An Example of Why RBI and Runs Are Limited

Consider this set of plate appearances occurring in the first inning of a Marlins game.

1. Emilio Bonifacio leads off with a single up the middle.

2. Omar Infante doubles down the left field line. The ball hangs up in the air a bit, so Bonifacio had to hold just long enough that he ends up at third base instead of scoring.

3. Hanley Ramirez hits a sacrifice fly, scoring Bonifacio from first.

The question is, who gets credit for this run and how much credit?

If you go by runs and RBI, you would presumably give half the credit to Bonifacio and the other half to Ramirez, since those are the only two receiving run stats for this set of circumstances. But does that tell you everything that happened? Bonifacio ended up on base with a single, but Infante was critical to move him to third base on the double. However, when you use runs and RBI, Infante receives no credit for that run, despite the fact that he was very important in moving the runner into position to score.

This gets to the point of what runs and RBI measure. Yes, they measure runs scored and driven in, but there are more factors to those numbers than meets the eye. Runs scored encompass not only a player's ability to get on base, but also his team's ability to drive him in. Similarly, RBI is dependent not only on a player's ability to move runners down the bases with hits, but also his team's ability to provide runners for him to move. In other words, there is little separation between the individual and team aspects of runs scored and RBI. If we want to evaluate the individual, we cannot be using stats that encompass the team's performance as well.

Note that this does not mean that runs and RBI are "useless." Like all statistics, they do tell you something, and they can tell a story. As is the case with many stats, it is not the stat's fault, but rather the misuse of the stat that makes it look bad. These stats can tell you a lot about the type of player you are dealing with and the quality of the team surrounding him in the lineup, but they cannot determine how much that player has produced.

Enter Linear Weights

So our goal in this case is to isolate each player's performance from his team and give that performance a run value. I do not want to give Infante extra credit for hitting a double just because his teammate is on base, and similarly I do not want to credit Ramirez more for making an out just because his teammate was on third; neither of these situations were in an individual player's control.

How can we resolve that? One way to handle this is to give the player an average amount of credit for each play. Every base-out state (for example, runners on second and third with no outs, or runner on first with no outs, or runner on second with one out) has a run expectancy, a value of runs that is expected to score based on empirical evidence (for example, how many runs have scored after a second and third with no outs situation). One can do this with play-by-play data from any era. For example, let us use this table by Tom Tango for the 1999 to 2002 era.

 

RE 99-02012Empty0.5550.2970.1171st0.9530.5730.2512nd1.1890.7250.3443rd1.4820.9830.3871st_2nd1.5730.9710.4661st_3rd1.9041.2430.5382nd_3rd2.0521.4670.634Loaded2.4171.650.815

Note: The columns are the number of outs, while the rows indicate the base situation.

Let's go back to our previous situation. Going from the start of the inning to after Bonifacio's single, we see that the Marlins would have increased their expected runs scored from 0.55 runs to 0.95 runs. This means that, in this situation, Bonifacio's single was worth 0.4 runs. Then, Infante's double changed the run expectancy from 0.95 to 2.05, meaning in this case that Infante's double added 1.1 runs. Finally, Ramirez's sacrifice fly scored a run, meaning we automatically add one run to his total, but it changed the state to runners on second with one out (0.73 run expectancy). This means that in total, the change from runners on second and third with no outs and runner on second with one out and a run scored was worth -0.3 runs (yes, that means Ramirez hurt the team's chances of scoring a run by driving in that run via a sacrifice fly).

But remember, we wanted to give credit isolated from teammates. So what we can do is average all of the changes in run expectancy resulting from singles, doubles, home runs, walks, and other basic events. That is, take all the changes in base-out state that resulted from a single, measure the run expectancy change from each single, and take the average. This gives a player credit for the average event, rather than credit him for what his team provided in terms of runners on base or teammate ability to drive runners in. It eliminates the effect of the teammates surrounding the player in the lineup and isolates only that player's production.

What do linear weights look like in terms of run values for each event? You can see an example for the 1992 to 2002 era at the end of this table by Tom Tango. Here it is summarized:

These values, measured for the current run environment, are the basis for the weights found in wOBA. Therefore, wOBA more properly weighs the value of different hits and steals than OPS does, making it a more accurate offensive stat. As you can see, there are numerous interesting questions that are resolved by this table:

- One can see the actual relative value of an average home runs versus an average single. SLG measures a 4:1 ratio in difference, while linear weights shows that the difference is more like 3:1.

- A triple is essentially worth a run when you take into account the average number of baserunners aboard when a triple is hit. A home run is always worth at least one run, but the average number of baserunners aboard when a home run is hit adds 0.4 runs to that value.

- The value of a walk is very similar to the value of an out, which makes total sense seeing as though they are polar opposites of each other (a walk is the least valuable non-out event at the plate).

- The value of a stolen base is significantly less than the value of a caught stealing. Outs on the bases are significantly more damaging than base advances.

These little nuances help in a lot of different analyses, but one thing this allows us to do is properly evaluate, in terms of runs above average, the performance of a given hitter, not only in quality but in quantity. For example, in 2011 Jose Bautista led the majors in wOBA with a .436 mark. He was the best hitter in terms of rate, but because he missed some playing time, we can see that he was actually just outproduced by Miguel Cabrera by about one run above average.

This was a quick and dirty explanation about the methodology and the reasoning behind why we use linear weights. Any questions, leave them in the comments section and I'd be happy to try and address them. Getting this concept really helps to understand valuing offensive performance.

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!

Yankees Rotation Issues Still Need to be Fixed

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!

Classic Yankees: Behind the Scenes

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!

Yankees Agree to $5 Mil Deal with Freddy Garcia

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!