Batting Orders and Plate Appearances

post from Royals Review on 23 August 2012 03:01:30 PM. © Royals Review

More Alex Gordon plate appearances, please.

A pretty fair amount of pop tart outrage was heard when Ned Yost recently moved Alex Gordon from the lead-off spot into the number three hole in the batting order. The move was accompanied by the proclamation that Gordon was 'really more of a number three or five type' and also that the move was for the long-term.

The idea that Gordon needed to be moved down in the order because he does not fit the prototypical lead-off hitter mold is pretty ridiculous, but Ned and the Royals are hardly the only organization in baseball to have trouble shedding longstanding baseball doctrines. Frankly, it is kind of amazing Yost came up with the idea in the first place and then stuck with it for so long.

Adding to the curiosity of the move was that it followed a pretty recent quip by the Royals' manager about how important it is to score first in a game. Given that, it would seem to make sense to have your best on-base guy (Gordon) bat first and assure that your best hitter (Butler) would come to the plate in every first inning you play (as opposed to moving him down to fourth to accommodate Gordon in the three spot).

Still, there were some calmer heads that wrote this off as the blogosphere overreacting once again. That, in the end, the difference in plate appearances and overall results was virtually nothing. That might have some merit. According to Rany, the difference over a season as you move down in the batting order is 18 plate appearances per slot.

Moving Alex Gordon from first to third in the order will, if done for an entire season, cost him 36 plate appearances. Does that really add up to anything?

When you are down to just 36 plate appearances, the difference between Alex's .364 on-base percentage and Chris Getz's .312 really comes down to two extra baserunners....for the season. Seems like we should maybe stop worrying about it right there, except I'm not so sure that really tells the story.

If you think about it, more often than not (that's a scientific term of measurement by the way) would not those extra 36 plate appearance almost always occur in the eighth or ninth inning of a game? There simply is no other way for the lead off position to acquire 36 more plate appearances over a season than the number three position without lead-off being the last or next to last hitter of a game.

As of yesterday, right at one-fourth of Kansas City's games have been decided by five runs or more, meaning a ninth inning Alex Gordon bat would be basically irrelevant to the final outcome in nine of the 36 games in which he would have an extra plate appearance in the lead-off spot. So, now we're down to 27 games and, honestly, there have to be another six or seven where Kansas City was up 8-4 or down 2-6 with no one on and two outs when the lead-off spot came up. That leaves 20 games where Chris Getz or Jarrod Dyson or Lorenzo Cain hits and extra time instead of Alex Gordon.

Statistically, the difference between what Getz/Dyson/Cain accomplish versus what Gordon does probably comes down to something like one additional walk and one extra double over the course of 162 games - maybe not even that. That's what the numbers say and, it is hard to argue with math.

Except, I would rather have Alex Gordon at the plate in the ninth inning twenty extra times a year and, oh by the way, Billy Butler comes up in the ninth 18 less times batting fourth instead of third. Does it impact the bottom line won-loss record? Not enough to matter this year, but I would still rather have those two get more at-bats than less.

Especially in the ninth inning.

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Miami Marlins Starter Jacob Turner To Remain In
Rotation

post from Fish Stripes on 23 August 2012 03:01:28 PM. © Fish Stripes

Aug. 22, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA: Miami Marlins pitcher Jacob Turner pitches in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

Apparently the Miami Marlins were as impressed as I was with Jacob Turner's start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Because according to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post, it seems the Marlins will give Turner one more shot at the major leagues this month.

Manager Ozzie Guillen said Turner — who allowed three runs in six innings Wednesday — will stay with the Marlins instead of being optioned back to Class AAA New Orleans.

"I like the way he threw. Everybody should like what he did. The kid has good stuff and he should get another opportunity to go out there and perform,’’ Guillen said.

This comes as a little bit of a surprise, but not anything that would be earth-shattering. The Marlins have lost the 2012 season based on their record, and they should be doing things such as checking out their prospective minor league talents and seeing if those players are ready to perform in the majors. Turner had a very strong performance against the Diamondbacks, and the Marlins want to see him again in the rotation.

Of course, the reason why this is not anything particularly special is because the Marlins were likely to see Turner in the rotation soon regardless of their decision today. September is just around the corner and the Fish would have brought Turner up anyway when rosters expand. In this move, it basically grants Turner one extra start in August to showcase his stuff to the team against major league talent.

Here's hoping Turner can build upon his promising start and deliver some strong performances that will leave Marlins fans and front office personnel confident that he can join the rotation as early as 2013.

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Joe Girardi almost fought a heckler during an
interview [Video]

post from lenNY's Yankees - A Bronx Bombers Blog on 23 August 2012 02:02:20 PM. © lenNY's Yankees - A Bronx Bombers Blog

This was the second unusual story from last night (here was the first). Watch this:It's hard to hear exactly what the heckler said, but you can hear Joe Girardi respond to him:"Hey, hey, hey, hey. Shut up. I'm doing an interview."Initial reaction: Is[...]

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Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals, Aug 23,
2012 12:45 PM CDT

post from The Crawfish Boxes on 23 August 2012 02:01:50 PM. © The Crawfish Boxes

Current Series

3 game series vs Cardinals @ Busch Stadium

Houston Astros The Crawfish Boxes
@ St. Louis Cardinals Viva El Birdos

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2012, 7:15 PM CDT
Busch Stadium

Complete Coverage >

Wed 08/22 7:15 PM CDTThu 08/23 12:45 PM CDT

Dallas Keuchel

#60 / Pitcher / Houston Astros

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jan 01, 1988

Jake Westbrook

#35 / Pitcher / St. Louis Cardinals

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 29, 1977

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Emilio Bonifacio Placed On 15-Day Disabled List
With Right Knee Strain

post from Fish Stripes on 23 August 2012 02:01:50 PM. © Fish Stripes

PHOENIX, AZ - AUGUST 21: Emilio Bonifacio #1 of the Miami Marlins warms up before batting against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the MLB game at Chase Field on August 21, 2012 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

It seems Emilio Bonifacio just cannot stay healthy in 2012.

Bonifacio has once again landed on the 15-day disabled list, this time with a right knee sprain. He tweaked the knee at some point during the Miami Marlins' 6-5 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, as he only took the field for the first inning before being pinch hit for and replaced in center field by Gorkys Hernandez. It seems the injury occurred in the outfield defensively and not during Bonifacio's lone plate appearance, in which he struck out looking in the top of the first inning.

This will be Bonifacio's third trip to the disabled list, and this one may be the scariest one to his long-term health. His previous two trips were due to a thumb injury that initially occurred when sliding into second base on an attempted steal and was later re-aggravated in a diving attempt on a batted ball at second base. This injury is completely unrelated to those, but it is more of a concern because of the potential for future harm with knee injuries, especially if the Marlins choose to stick with Bonifacio in the outfield rather than in the infield.

Having said all of that, Bonifacio had an MRI on the knee yesterday morning and no serious damage was noted, so this is unlikely to keep him out for long, with the estimate at three weeks. Still, the Fish may go ahead and shut him down for the rest of the season just to avoid any further wear and tear on an increasingly fragile player.

Ozzie Guillen had this to say about Bonifacio's 2012 season.

"If we're not going anywhere, why are we going to take a chance for him to get hurt again, to go to Minor League rehab and do all kinds of stuff to come back?" Guillen said. "To me, it's up to him. But why risk something that shouldn't be risked?"

I am in agreement with this. With a player like Bonifacio who is struggling to stay healthy, there is no reason to risk further injury by playing him again in a lost season like 2012. The Fish are going nowhere fast this year, and trying to rush Bonifacio, especially with a knee injury, no matter how mundane, may be a mistake.

This adds another question to the situation that the Marlins have to deal with regarding Bonifacio's future. His position next season is still undetermined, and while Fish Stripes insists that the team would be better off with him at second base, there is still a question of whether the Marlins will move him away from the outfield, where they seem to like him a little more. He is likely a better defender in the outfield, but if things like knee sprains can happen more often and more chronically out there, it may be best to get him working in the infield for next year, beyond the free agent-related reasons for the move.

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Astros Minor League Playoff Forecast

post from The Crawfish Boxes on 23 August 2012 02:01:50 PM. © The Crawfish Boxes

Below the proverbial jump is a glance at where Astros' minor league affiliates from Oklahoma City to Greeneville stand in terms of their potential for postseason play. The post was written as of noon August 23, so click on the links for updated standings in real time.

Oklahoma City (AAA): Longshot, expect September callups sooner than later

To make the postseason of the 4-division Pacific Coast League, Oklahoma City (69-62) must win its division and that would require passing both the Marlins’ New Orleans affiliate (72-60) and Dodgers’ Albuquerque affiliate (75-57) over its final 12 games. Of the final dozen, the next 4 are on the road at the Cubs’ Iowa affiliate (51-81) and are followed by two 4-game home series against Albuquerque and the Rangers’ Round Rock club (62-70). To make up a 5.5 game deficit on Albuquerque in 12 games would all but require a sweep in those head-to-head contests. And even if that happened, Oklahoma City may still need help to overtake New Orleans. So postseason action in Oklahoma City looks unlikely and we should be seeing Redhawks in Astros uniforms on September 4 if not sooner. Click here for updated standings.

Corpus Christi (AA): Lead pipe cinch, in line to host the final 3 games in each of two 5-game series

Corpus Christi (37-21 second-half record) would have to lose virtually all of its remaining 12 games to miss the 2-division Texas League’s postseason. Even if Corpus Christi did blow its 5-game second-half lead over second-place and first-half division champion Frisco of the Rangers' system, Corpus Christi would still make the postseason as the division’s second-best team on the strength of its overall season record (74-54). For Corpus Christi to miss completely, either the 3rd or 4th place second-half team would have to win the half and they are each at least 10 games behind Corpus Christi and at least 5 games behind Frisco. Barring such a miracle, the first 2 games of a best-of-5 divisional championship series will be played at Frisco and the final 3 would be played at Corpus Christi, if needed, unless Frisco wins the second half title in which case the 5th game would be in Frisco. The winner of the Corpus-Frisco series would then advance and host games 3 through 5 of a best-of-5 series with the other divisional champion (either the first-half champion Rockies’ Tulsa affiliate or the Cardinals’ Springfield affiliate, which holds a 6.5-game lead in the second half). Click here for updated second-half standings.

Oklahoma City (AAA): Longshot, expect September callups sooner than later

Corpus Christi (AA): Lead pipe cinch, in line to host the final 3 games in each of two 5-game series

Lancaster (High A): Probably in, as divisional seed #2 or #3

The California League uses an NBA/NHL-style admit-almost-everyone playoff model in which 3 teams from each of its two 5-team divisions make the postseason. With the Mariners’ High Desert affiliate having won the first- and second-half titles of Lancaster’s division, overall season records willbe used to determine which other 2 division members make the playoffs. With 12 games remaining for all clubs, Lancaster and the Padres’ Lake Elsinore club are tied for the top 2 spots at 65-63 with the Dodgers’ Rancho Cucamonga team 2 games back at 63-65 and the Angels’ Inland Empire squad 5 back at 60-68. Lancaster hosts Rancho Cucamonga tonight and then hosts Lake Elsinore for 4 before finishing with 3 at Inland Empire and 4 at the very tough High Desert destination. If Lancaster finishes in the top 2 of those 4, they will play the other qualifier in a best-of-3 with the final 2 hosted by the club with the better record. The winner of that series will advance to a 5-game divisional championship with High Desert (who would host games 1, 2, and 5), and the winner of that division series will play a 5-game league championship series with the champion of the opposite division (likely the Reds’ Bakersfield, Rockies’ Modesto, or Giants’ San Jose affiliate). The recent additions of DeShields, Mier, Aplin, Lo, and Long seem to more than offset the loss of Springer and cause me to like Lancaster’s chances of reaching the postseason. Click here and then click on the Wild Card Standings header for updated divisional wild card standings.

Lexington (Low A): Needs help from Tourists

Lexington has gone into a tailspin losing 7 straight and now must root root root for streaking first-half division champion Rockies’ Asheville Tourists affiliate to overtake the Rome Braves from 3 games behind and win the second-half title, as that would enable Lexington to advance to the postseason as the other divisional qualifier on the strength of having the best overall season record. In 4th place in the second half and 9.5 games behind Rome with 11 to play, Lexington simply has no shot at the second-half title. Their overall record of 67-60 places them one ahead of the Mets’ Savannah club (65-60), 3 ahead of the Yankees’ Charleston club (63-62), and 3.5 ahead of the Giants’ Augusta club (64-64). Their 4 final games are at home against Rome so they could well find themselves with an opportunity to help Asheville overtake them. If Asheville wins the second-half title and Lexington posts the best overall record of the other divisional clubs, Lexington would square off in a best-of-3 divisional championship series with Asheville and host only game 1. The winner of that divisional series would host games 1 and 2 of a best-of-5 league championship series with the champion of the opposite division series (the Marlins’ Greensboro affiliate won the first half and several clubs are vying for the second-half title). Lexington’s playoff chances seem a bit bleak now given their current offensive woes and that Asheville must play 8 of their final 11 on the road. Click for updated second-half standings and click the Overall Standings header for updated season standings.

Tri-City (short-season A): Clinched division, zeroing in on league’s top seed

Tri-City (44-18) has clinched its division of the 3-division New York-Penn League and simply must aim to maintain its 2 game lead over the next best division champion, the Rays’ Hudson Valley club (42-20), to ensure that they will be the top seed and host the lone wildcard qualifier in Round 1. Fourteen games remain so the top seed is far from wrapped up and Tri-City will be hosting the prospect-laden Hudson Valley squad in the final 3 games of the season. If Tri-City staves off Hudson Valley, Tri-City will host games 2 and 3 of a best-of-3 with the wild card qualifier (probably the Mets' Brooklyn affiliate and its equally deep starting rotation Sep 7-9) and as a winner of that series they would advance to the best-of-3 league championship series against the winner of the series between the champions of the other 2 divisions (Sep 10-12 or 11-13) and would again host games 2 and 3. Otherwise if Hudson Valley swipes the top seed, Tri-City would host the 3rd-seeded division champion (the Nationals' Auburn affiliate or Cardinals’ Batavia affiliate) for games 2 and 3 in round 1, and would be the top seed for the Championship series only if Hudson Valley was eliminated in round 1. Click for updated standings.

Greeneville (short-season Rookie): Could sneak in, 1.5 games out with 6 to go

The Elizabethton Twins have clinched Greeneville’s division leaving Greeneville (34-28, 6 left to play) to battle the Johnson City Cardinals (35-26, 6 to play with 1 cancelled game that will not be made up) for the second and final playoff berth from the westernmost of the Appalachian League’s two divisions. Johnson City has the more desirable advantage of being 1.5 games ahead of Greeneville with 6 to play but they also must wrap up their season by playing the 2 best teams record-wise from the opposite division in the Burlington Royals (38-22, on the road) and Danville Braves (33-25). If Greeneville can slip past Johnson City over the course of its own 3-game series with Danville and another with the Bluefield Blue Jays (26-34), Greeneville would host game 1 of a best-of-3 series with the first-place team of the opposite division (Burlington, barring a giant collapse) and that winner would advance to a 3-game league championship series with the winner of the first-round series between Elizabethton and the opposite division’s runner-up (Danville, or else the Rays’ Princeton affiliate). Due to a geographic quirk (Greeneville is the westernmost of the potential playoff clubs) and this being an even-numbered year, Greeneville would host the final 2 games if they reached the league championship series. Click for updated standings.

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A Closer Look At The Braves' Win Streak In Kris
Medlen Starts

post from Talking Chop on 23 August 2012 02:01:49 PM. © Talking Chop

Medlen during the 3rd start of his streak, way back in June of 2010.

You've presumably heard that, after last night's much-needed shut-down of the Nationals, the Braves have won Kris Medlen's last 16 starts. That's a new franchise record, which is kind of mind-boggling considering the Braves' wealth of great pitching over the years. Here are the best streaks in Braves franchise history (since 1918):

Rk Player Strk Start End Games IP/GS BB/9 SO/9 ERA1Kris Medlen2010-05-292012-08-22166.271.527.183.052John Smoltz1996-04-091996-06-19157.561.6710.091.913Steve Avery1993-05-021993-07-05136.101.475.223.184Pete Smith1992-08-021993-04-09127.083.284.981.91
Warren Spahn1954-07-181954-09-08128.362.603.682.156Tim Hudson2007-06-252007-08-20116.701.956.352.57
John Smoltz1998-07-011998-08-26116.642.229.252.96
Greg Maddux1995-06-091995-08-04117.970.627.901.44
Buzz Capra1974-05-191974-07-03117.583.134.431.19Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/23/2012.

As you can see, Medlen's streak hasn't come about because his pitching has been particularly dominant. He's also given up 11 home runs during the streak, which isn't bad, but is a far higher rate than anyone else on the list allowed. If you showed me Medlen's numbers, I'd think of a Solid #2 Starter, not a Franchise Record-Holder.

So what does this mean? Well, for one, it means he's played for good teams with good offenses* to bail him out during his occasional bad starts. Secondly, it means he's gotten lucky with particularly good run support. The Braves have scored an average of 6.25 runs per game during Medlen's streak, only twice scoring fewer than 5 runs (and they scored 4 and 3 runs in those games).

* Medlen's arm injury, which caused him to miss nearly all of the 2011 season, actually helped this streak. The Braves' offense was much weaker in 2011 than either in 2010 or this season.

Because this streak is so dependent on Medlen's teammates, I like to think of it as more of a team record, and not a particularly meaningful one at that. It is certainly fun to think about, however, and I'll obviously be rooting for the streak to continue indefinitely.

You may be wondering at this point just how long the Braves' streak would have to continue to break the MLB record. Well, Medlen & the Braves are moving up the list (tied for 13th all-time), but they've still got a ways to go to match the MLB-best 22 in a row, shared by White Ford of the Yankees and Carl Hubbell of the Giants. (The full list is after the jump.)

Rk Player Strk Start End Games IP/GS BB/9 SO/9 ERA Tm1Whitey Ford1950-07-061953-06-12227.244.354.412.26NYY
Carl Hubbell1936-07-171937-05-24228.831.674.491.81NYG3Lefty Grove1931-04-221931-08-19219.102.364.381.84PHA4Roger Clemens2001-05-262001-09-19206.682.638.693.10NYY5Aaron Sele2000-09-052001-06-12196.461.984.482.93SEA
Tom Filer1982-06-231988-06-14195.473.383.293.38CHC-TOR-MIL7Chuck Finley1997-07-011998-05-02187.093.608.392.26ANA8Chris Carpenter2005-06-142005-09-13178.161.307.661.56STL
Brian Anderson1999-07-242000-05-23176.491.634.403.18ARI
Whitey Ford1961-06-021961-08-10177.882.627.593.29NYY
Ewell Blackwell1947-05-101947-07-25178.882.866.201.61CIN
Stan Coveleski1925-05-091925-07-26178.162.342.142.27WSH13Kris Medlen2010-05-292012-08-22166.271.527.183.05ATL
Randy Johnson1995-08-111996-04-26167.023.2811.782.08SEA
LaMarr Hoyt1983-07-271984-04-10167.540.904.772.69CHW
Ron Guidry1978-04-131978-07-02167.942.628.651.77NYY
General Crowder1932-08-021933-04-12168.561.912.172.36WSHProvided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/23/2012.

At this point, you're probably thinking two things:

That's some pretty good company for Medlen & the Braves.
Who the heck is Tom Filer, and how did he start in 19 straight wins with those numbers?

As for #1, there are a lot of impressive names on the list. Six of the 16 players on the list are or should be in the Hall of Fame, and many of the others were really good pitchers, too. LaMarr Hoyt, Ron Guidry, Whitey Ford (in '61), Chris Carpenter, Randy Johnson, and Roger Clemens all won Cy Young Awards during the seasons of their streaks. Lefty Grove and Carl Hubbell won MVPs.

In addition, most of the teams on the list were excellent. Only two teams on the list didn't make the playoffs during one of the years of its streak: Ewell Blackwell's 1947 Reds and Chuck Finley's 1997-98 Angels. It helps that many of these teams were particularly strong at the plate (it's no accident, for instance, that the '61 Yankees placed a pitcher on the list).

Putting that all together, the secret to having a streak like this seems to be combining a great pitcher (or a good pitcher having a career year) with a very good team.

Which leads us to #2, in which a very undistinguished pitcher somehow made the top 5 all-time despite averaging less than 5 and a half innings per start and walking more than he struck out (in an era in which that was rare). Oh, and Filer's streak spread across 6 years and 3 teams. How on earth did that happen?

Filer was 25 and not much of a prospect when he debuted for the Cubs in 1982. He made eight starts that year and gave up exactly 3 or 4 runs in seven of them (the other was a 7-shutout-innings performance). The Cubs won his last five starts, despite the fact that Filer didn't make it out of the 4th inning in two of them. After that, Filer went back to AAA Iowa, where he spent all of the '83 and '84 seasons.

Before the '85 season, Filer signed with Bobby Cox's Blue Jays as a minor-league free agent. The Jays won all 9 of his starts, thanks largely to averaging 7.2 runs per game. (I should note that the '85 Blue Jays were an excellent team, winning 99 games and the AL East.) Filer pitched past the 6th inning just once, and twice didn't make it through the 4th. At that point, he hurt his arm, missing the entire 1986 season.

After another year in the minors, the Jays sold Filer to the Brewers. He then finished his streak by winning his first 5 starts with the Brewers, including a complete game shutout. The streak was broken when the Brewers got shut out by the White Sox, which of course wasn't Filer's fault at all. But that's the nature of these kinds of streaks; you need your team to score runs to make them happen. Filer is now the Pirates' AAA pitching coach.

That brings us back to Kris Medlen, who like Filer, missed a year due to injury in the middle of his streak. He hasn't been nearly as lucky as Filer, but you can see just how dependent he is on the Braves' offense. All it would take is one game when they failed to muster any runs and the streak would be over, no matter how well Medlen pitched that day.

At the same time, you have to admire Medlen's consistency and persistence. Not many pitchers would be able to put up Medlen's numbers as a starter while also dealing with a major arm surgery and repeatedly being shuffled back-and-forth from the bullpen. One day, he'll have a bad start, or an unlucky one, and the streak will end. But until then, the streak is a great occasion to appreciate a pitcher who most fans outside of Braves Country probably aren't very familiar with--and the resurgent Braves offense thats helping him out, too.

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Detroit slugger Cabrera leaves game in 2nd inning
(Yahoo! Sports)

DETROIT (AP) — Miguel Cabrera has left Detroit’s game Thursday against Toronto in the second inning with right ankle soreness.

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Derek Jeter says Skip Bayless should be tested

This was the first weird story that came out last night. Here's what Skip Bayless said on TV yesterday:"You would have to have your head in the sand or your head somewhere else not to at least wonder, `How is he doing this?'"And here's Derek Jeter's[...]

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