ST Game 19: Yankees vs. Tigers

post from Sliding Into Home: A Yankees Blog on 21 March 2010 12:03:29 PM. © Sliding Into Home: A Yankees Blog

Spring Training Game 19
Yankees vs. Tigers
George M. Steinbrenner Field - Tampa FL
Game Time: 1:05 p.m.
TV: YES | Radio: WCBS

Here are the lineups:
YANKEES (8-10)
Derek Jeter SS
Nick Johnson 1B
Jorge Posada C
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Curtis Granderson CF
Randy Winn LF
Francisco Cervelli DH

Pitching: RHP A.J. Burnett (0-1, 6.75 ERA this spring)

TIGERS (10-8)
Brandon Inge 3B
Johnny Damon LF
Magglio Ordonez RF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Carlos Guillen DH
Don Kelly CF
Gerald Laird C
Scott Sizemore 2B
Adam Everett SS

Pitching: RHP Justin Verlander (1-2, 6.10)

News & Notes

- Jason Hirsh and Dustin Moseley were reassigned to minor league camp.

- Mariano Rivera and Phil Hughes will follow Burnett today. Also available out of the pen will be Zack Segovia, Amaury Sanit and Josh Schmidt.

Today's subs: 1B Juan Miranda, 2B Ramiro Pena, SS Reegie Corona, 3B Brandon Laird, LF Jon Weber, CF Greg Golson, RF David Winfree, and DH Austin Romine. Cervelli will move to catcher after Posada leaves the game..

In the pen for Detroit: RHP Joel Zumaya, RHP Jose Valverde, LHP Phil Dumatrait, LHP Phil Coke and and RHP Josh Rainwater.

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Spring Training Open Thread: Cards at Braves

post from Talking Chop on 21 March 2010 12:03:20 PM. © Talking Chop

Here is the Braves lineup vs. the Cards:

Melky Cabrera, LF
Martin Prado, 2B
Chipper Jones, 3B
Brian McCann, C
Troy Glaus, 3B
Yunel Escobar, SS
Jason Heyward, RF
Gregor Blanco, CF
Jair Jurrjens, P

After Jurrjens we should see Peter Moylan, Billy Wagner, Jesse Chavez, and Eric O'Flaherty.

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http://www.talkingchop.com/2010/3/21/1383513/spring-training-open-thread-cards

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Camelback Ranch – March 21st

post from LADodgerTalk.com - Get Your Daily Dodger Juice, Dodger News and Dodger Rumors on 21 March 2010 11:51:00 AM. © LADodgerTalk.com - Get Your Daily Dodger Juice, Dodger News and Dodger Rumors

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Braves Make Second Round of Spring Roster Cuts

post from Talking Chop on 21 March 2010 11:28:00 AM. © Talking Chop

The Atlanta Braves made their second round of spring roster cuts today, and they ran a little deeper with at least one unexpected name on the list:

The Atlanta Braves trimmed their spring roster by six players today, optioning two players and re-assigning four others. Left-handed pitcher Michael Dunn and right-handed pitcher Jeff Lyman were optioned to Gwinnett (AAA).
The four players who were re-assigned to minor league camp include left-handed pitcher Mariano Gomez, catcher Orlando Mercado and outfielders Brent Clevlen and Mitch Jones.

None of the hitters were unexpected, and Gomez is certainly not a surprise, but the first two relievers are kind of a surprise, especially Mike Dunn. He had pitched well lately, after suffering through some control issues earlier this spring. Lyman was also a surprise, as he was having a good spring, especially in the control department. Odds are we'll probably see each of these guys in Atlanta at some point this season anyway.

I'm glad to see Clevlen and Mitch Jones cut. Matt Young, who stays around instead of them, has 5 hits this spring to the collective 4 hits between Clevlen and Jones. Their spring of futility is finally over.

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Tim Raines 1982 Topps

post from 30-Year Old Cardboard on 21 March 2010 11:27:54 AM. © 30-Year Old Cardboard

Tim Raines 1982 ToppsWhat stadium is that in the background??Anyway, here is Tim’s base card from the 1982 Topps set. At this point in his young career, Raines had already established himself as one of the sport’s better runners. ‘82 was his first full season in the big leagues and he amassed an incredible 731 plate appearances. And amazingly as [...]

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Weiner expects contract talks next year (AP)

post from MLB News Blog on 21 March 2010 11:25:36 AM. © MLB News Blog

New baseball players’ union head Michael Weiner anticipates talks with Major League Baseball on a new collective bargaining agreement will begin by spring training or perhaps a bit earlier next year. “Our goal will try to be, in one sense, you always want to have an agreement without a threat of a stoppage,” Weiner said [...]

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Scully maintains humor after fall (AP)

post from MLB News Blog on 21 March 2010 11:25:16 AM. © MLB News Blog

Bruised physically and emotionally following a fall at his home Thursday, Los Angeles Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully showed he still has his sense of humor. The 82-year-old Hall of Famer arrived in the desert Sunday to call his first game of the spring. “I’m supposed to cut back on dangling participles, and I’m not allowed [...]

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So much for seeing Damon & Granderson

post from lenNY's Yankees - A Bronx Bombers Blog on 21 March 2010 11:21:00 AM. © lenNY's Yankees - A Bronx Bombers Blog

I was psyched this morning to see both Johnny Damon and Curtis Granderson slotted in the lineups for today?s game. Of course, the game was rained out. Joe Girardi said it really messed up the pitching schedule and doesn?t know what he?ll do yet to[...]

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Sunday Rockpile: Why Brad Hawpe is a better fit
for the Rockies than you may think, Part 1

More photos » Matt York - AP

It's okay Brad, your teammates have your back.

Browse more photos »

So today, I'm very busy with real life stuff and sort of running desperately late, so no links other than to Troy Renck's article at the DP, talking about how the Rockies are navigating past the obstacles presented this Spring. Instead, I'll just put up a post I've been working on regarding Brad Hawpe, that's still in a nascent stage, so I'll just call it part one.

I've been kind of troubled by my affinity for Brad Hawpe this winter, and no, Mrs. Hawpe, it's not that kind of affinity. Anyway, why I'm troubled is because I really don't believe he's as bad for the team as some very intelligent people make him out to be, and whenever that sort of disconnect takes place, it causes me to question my own stance. Today, I'm going to try and reconcile why I feel that some of Hawpe's value to the Rockies may be missed (note: in part two, I'll try and figure out how to actually put it in numbers, rather than theory). Let's first review the two basic facts that we know about Brad Hawpe:

He is a liability defensively, likely a very large one relative to replacement level.
He is a credit on offense, again a pretty large gap between him and your standard bench (not Seth Smith) level.

The sum total of these two facts lead sabrmetricians to the conclusion that on a completely average team, Brad Hawpe is a slightly below average player. No, actually that's not true, it seems to lead most of them to the conclusion that on any team, Brad Hawpe is a below average player. And that highlighted word is important, because I believe this is where people are generally missing something important.

Let me show this with a geometric proof, so you can see where my logic's coming from:

The object of baseball consists of two distinct phases, scoring as many runs as possible while on offense, and preventing as many runs as possible on defense.
There are hierarchies of player importance in both run scoring and run prevention. For run scoring, the top and heart of the lineup are most important as they get the most plate appearances and also the most plate appearances with high percentage scoring chances. In run prevention, the pitcher carries by far the most importance.
Right field, because of the relative scarcity of play opportunities, is close to the bottom of the defensive hierarchy, but (depending on the individual player) usually near the top of the offensive side of the equation.

Is everybody with me so far? This is where it will get a little more tricky:

Picture an imaginary scenario where a pitcher has a 27 strikeout perfect game. He (with probably a little credit to the catcher, but I'm not going to get into that here) has taken complete responsibility for his team's run prevention for that game. There is zero need for the other seven fielders. The same would be true on the opposite end for a pitcher who came in and gave up six straight upper deck home runs without recording an out before being lifted. Six runs score and he has infinite ERA for the appearance, but again, no need for fielders, good or bad, to achieve this result. Still on that bad side of the spectrum but a little more winnable would be a pitcher (Charlie Brown?) who gives up 12 straight line drives to the outfield before being lifted. Depending on the effectiveness and luck in placement of your outfielders, your team might scrap together a few outs from that performance.

Therefore, the basic gist of a corresponding law would be:

As pitchers decrease in effectiveness, defensive performance from the other eight members of the team becomes more important.

of course, if this is true, then the inverse would also have to be true:

As pitchers increase in effectiveness, defensive performance from the other eight members of the team becomes less important.

This isn't new ground, it's stuff that DIPS derived pitcher evaluations (such as FIP or xERA) use for hurlers, but the properties don't seem to be often carried over to a team's fielders. What I'm saying is that a player like Brad Hawpe, who has a high offensive value but is low on the defensive scale, would have far greater value on the Rockies (a team with a very low team FIP) than he would on the Brewers. In effect, because his defensive liability is going to be limited by the effectiveness of Rockies pitching, his offensive capability becomes that much more significant. In fact, the Rockies, as MLB's most effective pitching team in 2009 by overall win value, could have been the perfect NL team for a Brad Hawpe.

How this works in a real game setting is simple, the hits that Brad Hawpe allows through his poor defense are far less likely to drive in runs or come around to score because Rockies pitchers will allow fewer preceding or subsequent baserunners than other teams. Ideally, of course, you would want a player that's both an offensive and defensive threat, like that punk Justin Upton, but given a scarcity of supply of true two-way players, teams have to make decisions based on relative value to their clubs and the relative value of an offense first player like Hawpe will be much higher compared to other players of similar cumulative value for a pitching strong team like the Rockies, while the relative value of a defensive specialist would be much higher for a team with a weak pitching staff.

Here, let me illustrate with the real world comparison of two NL West right fielders in 2009, the Giants Randy Winn and the Rockies Hawpe, with their value in runs over replacement according to FanGraphs:

Randy Winn: -13.4 batting, +16.5 fielding; 1.7 WAR
Brad Hawpe: +21.5 batting, -21.3 fielding; 1.3 WAR

According to FanGraphs' WAR, both of these high quality pitching teams would have been better off with Winn. What I'm suggesting is that because of their pitching staffs, both clubs would be better off with Brad Hawpe. In effect, Winn doesn't save as many runs as is suggested by his UZR because Tim Lincecum and company wouldn't allow them to score anyway, and Brad Hawpe doesn't allow as many runs as suggested because Ubaldo Jimenez and friends have his back. As that defensive gap between the two players narrows, the offensive gap, which will remain static, becomes more critical. Anecdotally, this example bears out at the team level given the standings last season. The Giants had a strong defense but weak offense to go along with their strong pitching but weren't able to overcome the Rockies for the wild card, despite the Rockies considerably weaker defensive squad.

The same could be applied to Manny Ramirez with the Dodgers last couple of seasons, he is likely quite a bit more valuable to them than indicated by a neutral WAR, and it's why this article that says the Nationals are silly for wanting to extend Adam Dunn is true (the Nationals have a terrible pitching staff, defense is more important) but why some Royals fans making a fuss over possibly acquiring Hawpe might not have their heads on straight given that pitching is a strength and offense a notable weakness for their club.

This theory would suggest that boy genius Theo Epstein might not have been getting the biggest bang for his buck in targeting defensive specialists like Mike Cameron this past winter (the Red Sox had the second most valuable pitchers in the majors last year), and why Omar Minaya's still an idiot (the Mets aren't a very good pitching team on the whole) for acquiring Jason Bay. Both teams would be getting more relative value from the other player.

This of course doesn't get into the presence of one Seth Smith, yet, which is a different can of worms altogether. Look for more of that in part two.

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http://www.purplerow.com/2010/3/21/1380926/sunday-rockpile-why-brad-hawpe-is

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Spring Training Game #19: Tigers at Yankees

Yankees (8-10) vs. Tigers (10-8)Pitching Matchup:RHP A.J. Burnett (0-1, 6.75) vs RHP Justin Verlander (1-2, 6.10)LineupJeter SSJohnson 1BPosada CRodriguez 3BCano 2BSwisher RFGranderson CFWinn LFCervelli DHGame News & Notes (Courtesy of the LoHud Blog, Bombers Beat, & Yankees.com):60 percent chance of rain at first pitch. There?s an 80 percent chance of rain by 3 p.m.Austin Jackson is not in the [...]

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