The 2012 Colorado Rockies: Business Review and
Wrap-up

The Rockies in the year 2012 were marketed as a bridge team, a team that would maintain the relative competitiveness of the prior few years while buying time for some of the team's brighter prospects to make their way to the Show. The 2012 Rockies' performance, which has been detailed in the rest of these reviews, has made those marketing the team in this way look like bridge salesmen with us, the fans, playing the part of gullible sap.

Whether they intended to or not, ownership and the front office were lying to us about this team's ability to contend. I think that, given many of the statements made by the Brothers Monfort over the calendar year, it's probable they were lying to themselves as well. I've written at length about the inability of ownership to, in Dan O'Dowd's words, "self-evaluate and grow" and their Lake Wobegon attitudes towards the evaulation of their own employees, so let's not dwell too much on that point. Suffice to say that the Rockies get a poor grade in Baseball Operations and a worse one in Public Relations.

Attendance

2012 was anything but the Year of the Fan. In fact, this season might have been the year the casual fan decided to stop being a fan. Among the 30 teams in MLB, Colorado had the 3rd largest attendance drop year over year, decreasing from 2.9 million fans to 2.6 million (roughly 3,500 fewer fans per game). That even 2.6 million still showed up is a function of a few things:

1. Attendance lags somewhat behind success, or in Colorado's case, failure. In other words, many of the fans who fill Coors Field only have a vague idea of whether the Rockies are succeeding or failing in recent weeks. Over time however, there is enough of a critical mass of positive (or negative) buzz around the team to affect attendance. In addition, many fans have purchased tickets well in advance of the games and thus are relatively unaffected by a team's performance.

Unfortunately for the Rockies, I'd say that the fan base is pretty well aware at this point of the team's lack of hope for 2013. I'd expect another big decrease in attendance next year.

2. A phenomenal venue and great family atmosphere. A summer night at Coors Field is excellent, which is a huge point to ownership's credit. Many people have noticed. They are further enticed by...

3. Some of the lowest ticket prices in MLB. If all you want to do is hang out with your friends in a great atmosphere, there's not many places this can be accomplished cheaper than at Coors Field, especially in the Rockpile. Just $4 gets you into one of the best stadiums in sports, and while the home team might not win, more than likely there'll be plenty of offense.

Still, it must be said that it is very tough to sell fans on a competitive product going into 2013.

Other Revenues

Some of the biggest gains in revenue for the Rockies going forward have absolutely nothing to do with the team but rather with the new TV contracts MLB signed with ESPN, Fox, and TBS that will bring in roughly $25 million per year in additional revenue starting in 2014 to the Rockies.

After the 2014 season, Colorado should expect another big windfall with the expiration of the team's local TV contract. Considering some of the new TV deals that have been signed recently, the team will be flush with cash even if attendance does decrease over the next couple of years.

For this reason, I fully expect the Forbes valuation of the Rockies to increase from this year's $464 million (which, given the selling prices of some teams recently is already a low end estimate). In other words, no matter what the product on the field does for the Rockies, expect the value of the franchise to continue to increase.

Series Wrap-up

There's no ifs, ands, or buts about it. 2012 was a disaster for Colorado and it's time to put it to bed. Unfortunately for fans, it's looking like the 64 win squad from 2012 will be largely unchanged going into 2013. Barring some major development out of our young players and immaculate health, we'll probably be right here at this time next year. That's not to say it won't be interesting to watch young players blossom and catch a few games at the ballpark. After all, we are Rockies fans and for better or worse, we'll be watching.

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Rumor: Yankees made no offers to A.J. Pierzynski

[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2012/12/rumor-yankees-made-no-offers-to-a-j-pierzyn
ski/

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Dave Parker 1983 Donruss

Dave Parker 1983 Donruss The 1983 baseball season would mark the 11th and final season that Parker would spend with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  During the offseason between the ’83 and ’84 seasons, Parker would sign with the Cincinnati Reds. Parker’s … Continue reading →

Read The Full Article:
http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2012/12/21/dave-parker-1983-donruss/

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Rumor: Ibanez looking to sign in the next 7-10
days

[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2012/12/rumor-ibanez-looking-to-sign-in-the-next-7-
10-days/

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Appreciating a knuckleball

When I was younger my dad and I would play catch in our backyard, and one day my dad taught me how to throw a pitch that I had never heard of before. That pitch was the knuckleball. Now I'm no knuckleball prodigy, but I thought it was the coolest pitch ever. Since then, I've always enjoyed watching knuckleball pitchers, and the expressions some batters get when swinging at that glorious pitch.

We all know R.A. Dickey is a great pitcher, and to be specific, a great knuckleballer. Knuckleballs are one of the strangest pitches in all of baseball, it's not like the conventional fastball or change-up where for the most part you know what you are going to get. The knuckleball makes even the greatest hitters look like a high school freshman.

In order to truly appreciate the knuckleball though one needs to see the knuckleball in slow-mo, and in this case that means GIFs.

To say the least, that is just incredible. Assuming I counted correctly, that knuckleball breaks three times. In my opinion one of the greatest things about the results of this pitch is the facial expression of the Josh Thole (I'm assuming that's him, if not correct me). He didn't even have his eyes open when he caught the ball, and heck, I don't blame him.

In the comments feel free to add any other amazing GIFs of the pitch known as the knuckleball.

Feel free to follow Alex Kienholz on Twitter Follow @AKienholzBtB

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Braves Extension Analysis: Martín Prado

The Braves have a slew of players who might be good candidates for a contract extension offer. I'll be covering many of them over the coming weeks, but I'll start today with the most obvious candidate: Martin Prado, who will be a free agent after the 2013 season.

With any contract extension, there are a variety of questions that we need to ask. Many of them, however, are essentially impossible for me to answer (What is the least amount that the player will accept? How much budget flexibility does the team have?). Instead, I'll focus on the questions that I can at least estimate an answer to. These are the three most important questions:

• What is the player's present value?
• What are the chances that he can maintain this value in the future?
• How much did comparable players make in their extensions?

Based on the answers to these questions, we can formulate a "fair" offer that both sides would have good reason to accept. Let's start with the simplest of the 3 questions:

What is Prado's Present Value?

Prado is entering his final year of the arbitration process. MLBTradeRumors recently estimated that he'd make about $7.7 million in 2013. There's a fair amount of wiggle room in that figure, but it provides a baseline for Prado's current value. Given that the final arbitration year's salary is typically around 80% of the player's "true" free-market value, that puts Prado at around a $10M/year salary. That is a bit low, though, based on Prado's past performance.

Since Prado has been a full-time player for four seasons now, we can use his average performance in that span (not counting his partial seasons before 2009) as our baseline. Here are his offensive full-season averages:

Those are solid numbers: about 10% better than league average according to wRC+, which adjusts for league and ballpark effects. That's about 10 runs (or 1 win) better than the league average, per season.

Offense is not the entire picture, of course. A huge part of Prado's value is tied to his defensive aptitude. Specifically, Prado has played six positions (all but pitcher, catcher, and center field) and has generally played them well. The problem with Prado's versatility is that he hasn't played enough at any position to get an adequate sample size.

Still, we can regress his defensive statistics to the mean. The results imply that Prado is solidly above average (about +7 runs/year) in left field, somewhat below average (-3 runs) at second base, and average to good (+1 to +8) at third base. Thus, Prado offers about the same overall defensive value at each position. Even if Prado hits at a league-average rate (and remember, he's been about 10% better so far), he'd be worth around 2.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at any of these positions.

Putting it all together, we get a player who has been worth about 15 WAR over the past 4 seasons (15.0 in FanGraphs' version, 14.9 in Baseball-Reference's), or about 3.75 wins per year. Using the rule of thumb that teams will pay around $4.5 million per win on the free market, that implies that Prado would be worth a bit under $17M/year in free agency, were he available right now.

* If you think that's too high, just take a look at the contracts that have been signed recently in free agency. Two comparably valuable players--Anibal Sanchez and B.J. Upton--recently signed for 5 years each and $15-16M per year. Add in the positional scarcity at 2B and 3B and Prado might be able to get $100 million over 6 years.

Of course, Prado is not yet in free agency, so we must discount that value. Let's assume that Prado must sacrifice 10% to 20% of his "true" worth in exchange for the lower risk in case he has a down year or gets hurt in 2013. That leaves his baseline value in a range from $13.5 to $15 million per season.

Combined with the estimate based on the arbitration process, we now have a solid range for the current value of Prado's future seasons: $10M at the low end to $15M at the high end.

Of course, this is all based on right now; there is no guarantee that Prado's value will hold up. Which brings us to...

What are the chances Prado can maintain his value in the future?

As with any projection, this is tricky. We can't know exactly how well Prado will hold up, but we can make some educated guesses and establish the probability that he will keep playing well. Let's start by considering four possibilities:

1. Prado actually improves, or at least avoids injury-marred seasons like 2011, increasing his value.
2. Prado maintains his previous performance going forward.
3. Prado declines somewhat but remains a valuable regular.
4. Prado's value quickly craters to around replacement level.

Since Prado is an excellent player, there is a lot more room to decline than to improve. And since he turned 29 in October, the chances that he will decline will only increase from now on. Still, 29 isn't ancient, so a decline is far from certain over the course of a reasonable-length extension.

I used Baseball-Reference to find players in the last 20 years who had been worth between 10 and 20 total WAR over their age 25 to 28 seasons (Prado was at 14.9, remember). I narrowed the list to players from Prado's 3 main positions--2B, 3B, and LF--and compared their age 25-28 years with the next four years (age 29-32).

All in all, I came up with 29 players, not counting those who are too recent to have full results (full list here). Since the group is bottom-heavy, the average age 25-28 WAR of those players was just 13.5, a bit less than Prado's. But it's still a good place to start.

Their average WAR in the 4 subsequent years was 9.2, which is about one-third less than the previous 4-year period but still good for 2.3 WAR/year, roughly league average.

Here is the full list of how the 29 players did in the following 4 years. The median WAR in the group was 9.9 (Bernard Gilkey). The best was Alomar, at 19.1 WAR, while the worst was Tony Batista at -1.9 WAR (three others were negative, including former Brave Marcus Giles).

Here's how the players did in the two 4-year periods, broken down using the 4 possibilities listed above:

That's a wide range of performance, but it does help us to establish the rough odds for each of the four groups:

1. ~15% chance of improving (by at least 0.5 WAR/year)
2. ~25% chance of maintaining performance (within 0.5 WAR/year)
3. ~35% chance of declining somewhat (by more than 0.5 but less than 1.5 WAR/year)
4. ~25% chance of cratering completely (by more than 1.5 WAR/year)

On average, a slight decline is the most likely possibility, but all four groups are certainly possible. A decline of some sort is more likely than not (~60% chance), but even many of the declining players were still valuable in the age 29-32 range. It's that roughly 25% chance of a complete loss in value that should worry the Braves.

Applying those chances to Prado's baseline performance (14.9 WAR), we should expect him to decline by around 4 WAR, total, over the 2013-2016 seasons, for an average of around 2.75 WAR/year. Using the $4.5M/win figure, that'd be worth $11M per year in salary.

If we figure on a deal for 4 years, starting in 2013, that'd be $44M total. Prado, though, is already under the Braves' control for 2013. Thus, he likely would want the extension to run an extra year, through 2017. I think such a 4-year extension (5 year contract) is most likely, perhaps with an option year tacked on. Using the same $11M/year value for buying out Prado's free-agent years, we get something like $55 million through 2017.

Based on Prado's current value that I estimated above, that's a bit low, but not insultingly so. Prado would probably seriously consider such an offer even if he wouldn't take it. The Braves, on the other hand, would likely be pleased to keep the contract cost that low, considering what teams around MLB are paying for players of Prado's caliber.

How much did players comparable to Prado get for their extensions?

One other factor will likely affect the value of any contract proposals on either side: past contracts for comparable players. Prado's versatility also interferes with this process, though; there aren't really any other players like him.

In this post at MLBTradeRumors, Mike Axisa offers up Alex Gordon as a comp. Gordon's 4-year extension covered 2 arbitration years (not 1) and included a player option. If the option is exercised, the total value will be $50M.

Prado and Gordon have some similarities: they're about the same age, they've both played 3B & LF, and they have similar career statistics (Gordon has a .348 OBP and .439 SLG in his career, very close to Prado's .345 & .435). Their career paths have been quite different, however. Prado is much better than the pre-2011 version of Gordon, but he's also clearly not as good as the 2011-12 version of Gordon.

Combining all that information, I'd have to say that Prado is worth a bit more than Gordon's deal, which was signed before his excellent 2012 season, even though Gordon is the more valuable player now. So that's one (imperfect) data point.

Unfortunately, most of the other data points aren't any better. Chase Headley might work if he signs an extension before Prado does, but there aren't many other options.

There is one solid comp, though, and it hits close to home: the Braves' extension of Dan Uggla before the 2011 season. Uggla, like Prado, had one year of team control left. He had been worth 3.9 WAR per year in his five previous full seasons, just a bit more than Prado's average. However, given that Prado is younger and more valuable defensively (and thus less likely to be a total black hole of value in the later years of an extension), you'd have to think that he's worth at least as much as Uggla, who got $62M guaranteed.

So if Prado is worth slightly more than Uggla, he'd need to get a guarantee of a little more than $62 million from 2013 through 2017. That puts us right in between the history-based $11M/year and the value-based $14M/year contracts I proposed above. Perhaps something like this:

• $9M in 2013
• $13.25M per year in 2014-2017
• $8M team option in 2018 with a $1M buyout

That's $63M guaranteed over 5 years, or $70M over 6 if the Braves exercise the option. The cheap team option (in Prado's age-34 season) gives the Braves some added upside in exchange for the higher yearly value from 2014-17.

If Prado doesn't like the team option, he could trade some average annual value to ditch it, or to have the option vest at a higher value when/if Prado stays healthy in 2016-17. There are a lot of variations that would be more or less fair for both sides.

=========

All of this is moot, of course, if Prado is strongly for or against an extension. He could easily accept something even less valuable than the $55M offer I described above, or he could just as easily hold out for a potential $80M+ payday in free agency.

Regardless, Martin Prado is very likely going to be a very wealthy man by this time next year*

* Okay, he's already very wealthy by my standards, but not by MLB's.

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Leaders in kwERA

When I evaluate a pitcher's skill and/or attempt to project his future performance I always start by first looking at his strikeout and walk numbers.

One of the main reasons I'm such a fan of using Ks and BBs is that when they're combined correctly they become a pretty incredible predictor of future performance (runs, ERA, etc.)

Sabermetrician Tom Tango is known mainly for his book (The Book) and subsequent website, as well as, for being the mind behind All-Star metrics such as, wOBA and FIP.

An ERA estimator, which many of you may not know about, that I'm a big fan of that can also be credited to Tango. It is known as kwERA.

(*editor's note, kwERA was actually the brain child of GuyM, Tango merely helped him develop the metric and continues to promote today).

kwERA is ERA based solely on strikeouts and walks; thus it's similar to FIP, yet it not only ignores all balls in play, but home runs, as well.

Interestingly, kwERA is even simpler than FIP when it comes to Ks and BBs, as they're weighted equally. The formula for this statistic is:

kwERA = 5.40 - (12*((K-BB)/PA)))

Although kwERA is ultra simplistic, more simple than even ERA itself, it is one of the strongest indicators of future ERA performance that we have.

kwERA is merely Ks minus BBs divided by batters faced, scaled to look like ERA. I personally think kwERA is a great tool, unfortunately there are no websites that put this statistic on their player pages or leaderboards.

The wonderful leaderboards at FanGraphs come (sort of) close, by providing us with K% (K/PA) and BB% (BB/PA) for each pitcher, these numbers can then be converted into kwERA fairly easily.

The readers of Beyond the Box Score are in luck, though, as I have compiled a 2012 kwERA leaderboard in this google doc for everyone to use.

A few notes about this leaderboard:

• The minimum number of innings pitched in 2012 was 100 for individuals to qualify for this leaderboard
• I modified the kwERA equation to include intentional walks and hit by pitches

For those who don't want to look at the entire leaderboard, I'll discuss some of the differences between the 2012 ERA leaders and 2012 kwERA leaders.

Top 10 in ERA and kwERA

Pitcher

ERA

Pitcher

kwERA

1. Kris Medlen

1.57

1. Stephen Strasburg

2.71

2. Clayton Kershaw

2.53

2. Max Scherzer

2.83

3. David Price

2.56

3. Cliff Lee

2.86

4. Justin Verlander

2.64

4. Marco Estrada

2.97

5. R.A. Dickey

2.73

5. Cole Hamels

3.12

6. Johnny Cueto

2.78

6. Kris Medlen

3.16

7. Matt Cain

2.79

7. Clayton Kershaw

3.18

8. Jered Weaver

2.81

8. Justin Verlander

3.19

9. Kyle Lohse

2.86

9. R.A. Dickey

3.21

10. Gio Gonzalez

2.89

10. Chris Sale

3.21

There isn't too much of a difference between the 2012 leaders in each category.

Medlen, Dickey, Kershaw and Verlander all appear on both lists.

Strasburg, Lee, Hamels and Sale all had ERAs below 3.17; thus, their ERAs agree with kwERA that they were elite in 2012.

The inclusion of Estrada and Scherzer among the kwERA leaders may surprise some, but Estrada was surprisingly good last year and Scherzer struggled through one of the unluckier first halves in baseball which crushed his ERA, despite putting up incredible K and BB numbers.

Price, Cain and Gonzalez all finished in the top-25 for kwERA; thus, even though they have shown the ability to outpitch their peripherals in year's past their K and BB performance was on par, or nearly as good as their ERAs would indicate.

As for Lohse, Weaver and Cueto I'll discuss their kwERA-ERA gaps, later in this piece.

This leaderboard allows us to look at large gaps between kwERA and ERA in an attempt to project which pitchers who could regress either positively (higher ERA than kwERA) or negatively (higher kwERA than ERA) in 2013.

Pitchers who could improve in 2013

Below I listed pitchers (min. 100 IP) who had a kwERA that was at least a full run below their ERA in 2012:

Pitcher

ERA

kwERA

Gap

Jake Arrieta

6.20

3.65

2.55

Philip Humber

6.44

4.41

2.03

Josh Tomlin

6.36

4.57

1.79

Luke Hochevar

5.73

4.30

1.43

Jeff Francis

5.58

4.17

1.41

Chris Volstad

6.31

4.95

1.36

Joe Blanton

4.71

3.39

1.32

Francisco Liriano

5.34

4.04

1.30

Tim Lincecum

5.18

3.95

1.23

Johan Santana

4.85

3.64

1.21

Freddy Garcia

5.20

4.01

1.19

Hector Noesi

5.82

4.66

1.16

Scott Feldman

5.09

3.94

1.15

Ivan Nova

5.02

3.95

1.07

Tommy Hunter

5.45

4.39

1.06

J.A. Happ

4.79

3.73

1.06

Randy Wolf

5.65

4.61

1.04

Felix Doubront

4.86

3.86

1.00

This list may make me look a little crazy for putting stock in kwERA. As much as I've studied batting average on balls in play and defensive independent pitching statistics, sometimes I still have trouble when arguing for lists like this one.

It was an "abysmal" 2012 for a bunch on this list including, Humber, Arrieta, Noesi, Wolf, Lincecum, Tomlin, Volstad and Francis. Thus, to say they'll be a full run or more better in 2013, leads to a good deal of cognitive dissonance for me.

For most of these pitchers, all kwERA is really saying is that their ERAs can't possibly that much worse than the MLB average (4.19 ERA was average for starters) again in 2012, and they're due for some regression to the mean.

The more interesting names on this list are the ones who are projected (by kwERA) to better than average in 2013, after having an ERA higher than the league average in 2012.

Arrieta, a starter for the Orioles has by far the largest gap among the pitchers on this leaderboard. His 3.65 kwERA ranks 31st ahead of names such as Roy Halladay, Matt Garza and Anibal Sanchez, while his actual 6.20 ERA ranks 139th out of the 142 pitchers on the leaderboard.

In 2012, both Arrieta's strikeout rate and his walk rate were better than league average (leading to his above average kwERA), but his batting average on balls in play (.320), home run rate (1.26 per 9) and dreadful strand rate (57.3%) caused his actual ERA to ballon over two and a half runs above what his strikeouts and walks would indicate.

Blanton, Liriano and Feldman were all free agents this off-season.

So far, Feldman and Blanton have been signed to deals, which could indicate that the teams who brought them think they'll regress positively in 2013. Liriano could as well, although he has yet to be signed.

The story of Lincecum's 2012 campaign, at this point, has all but been beaten to death. Questions about Lincecum's release point, velocity and struggles out of the stretch caused many to believe that there was something more than just bad luck that was causing Lincecum's bad results. He even posted the worst strikeout rate and walk rate of his career. Although his strikeout numbers were still very high and offset his below-average walk rate, which resulted in a low kwERA.

In 2011, Nova posted a very pedestrian K-BB%. He was the poster boy for regression his 3.70 ERA was due for serious regression in 2012.

Magically enough, hIs ERA did regress by over a run and a half.

Ironically though, his K-rate improved a great deal, while his walk rate also improved. Thus, leading to a very different projection for Nova in 2013, as he now may be due for positive regression, based on his 2012 peripherals.

Pitchers who could decline in 2013

Below I listed pitchers (min. 100 IP) who had a kwERA that was at least a full run above their ERA in 2012:

Name

ERA

kwERA

Gap

Kris Medlen

1.57

3.16

1.59

Jeremy Hellickson

3.1

4.36

1.26

Ross Detwiler

3.4

4.56

1.16

Kyle Lohse

2.86

3.98

1.12

Matt Harrison

3.29

4.40

1.11

Jered Weaver

2.81

3.89

1.08

Johnny Cueto

2.78

3.85

1.07

Miguel Gonzalez

3.25

4.32

1.07

Tim Hudson

3.62

4.64

1.02

Brandon McCarthy

3.24

4.24

1.00

This list is much shorter than the list of pitchers who could improve by a fair margin.

I think everyone who follows baseball understands that Medlen's ERA is due for regression, only because his 2012 ERA was unbelievably low. Despite significant regression, his kwERA still indicates that his ERA should be one of the best in the game next season.

If you follow sabermetrics at all you easily could have guessed that the Rays' starter Jeremy Hellickson would be on this list. If you follow the author of this piece you also would know the Hellickson is in fact my #Unicorn; thus, I cannot possibly discuss matters of his Ks/BBs and ERA in just one paragraph.

It's become rather apparent that both Hudson and Cueto have the magical ability to always outperform their peripherals, thus their ERAs probably won't regress by a full run, in 2013.

The Angels' ace, Weaver, also may have these abilities, although issues with his future have been brought up at this very site.

Lohse is currently tabbed as the best free agent starter left on the market. I've already gone into great detail on why the team who signs Lohse may not be too happy with the results they see from going forward, and kwERA seems to agree.

All in all, kwERA is a simple tool that I think is rather interesting; thus, I hope the readers are happy that there is now a place to find a leaderbaord for this metric, at least for 2012.

All data comes courtesy of FanGraphs

You can follow Glenn on twitter @Glenn_DuPaul

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Friday Rockpile: Grading the Rockies' Offseason
Thus Far

We have hit the half-way point of the off-season, so it serves to be a decent time to grade the off-season moves made thus far. As we know, the Rockies have not been particularly active this off-season, but as Rox Girl pointed out yesterday, there is not writing on the wall for too much more.

Here are the changes so far for the roster since the off-season started, with re-signed free agents in parentheses and free agents lost in bold.

Additions - RHP Wilton Lopez, 1B/3B Ryan Wheeler, (LHP Jeff Francis), LHP Daniel Rosenbaum, RHP Mike McClendon, RHP Jeff Manship, IF Tommy Manzella.

Subtractions - RHP Alex White, LHP Matt Reynolds, RHP Josh Roenicke, RHP Guillermo Moscoso, RHP Coty Woods, IF Tommy Field, RHP Carlos Torres, OF Andrew Brown, LHP Jonathan Sanchez, 1B Jason Giambi

There certainly isn't much there that moves the needle. Yesterday, Jayson Stark posted a story at ESPN asking MLB executives who the most improved and least improved teams were this off-season. Not surprisingly, the Rockies did not appear on the top five of either list, as they simply have not been in the headlines.

Yet Stark cross-referenced that list by employing Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections on rosters from the start of the off-season to now. Only the Marlins and Mets have hurt their projected win total more than the Rockies this off-season, according to ZiPS. How is that possible with such minimal moves made? Because if you aren't getting better, you are getting worse.

When the off-season began, all free agents were floating around, unassigned to teams. Colorado did not sign any top free agents, yet many joined the NL West, improving the win totals of divisional rivals. Those wins come in expense to wins for teams that stayed still. A summary of moves made in the NL West this off-season, again with re-signed free agents in parentheses and free agents lost in bold:

.

Dodgers

Additions - RHP Zack Greinke, LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu, 2B Skip Schumaker, LHP Rob Rasmussen, 1B/OF Nick Evans

Subtractions - RHP Joe Blanton, OF Bobby Abreu, LHP Randy Choate, 2B Adam Kennedy, OF Shave Victorino, RHP Jamey Wright, RHP Todd Coffey, OF Juan Rivera, C Matt Treanor, RHP Blake Hawksworth, 2B Jake Lemmerman, OF Alfredo Silverio, RHP John Ely

.

Giants

Additions - (CF Angel Pagan), (2B Marco Scuataro), (LHP Jeremy Affeldt), OF Andres Torres, RHP Chad Gaudin, IF Wilson Valdez

Subtractions - OF Melky Cabrera, IF Ryan Theriot, 1B Aubrey Huff, 2B Freddy Sanchez, RHP Brad Penny, RHP Guillermo Mota, 2B Emmanuel Burriss, RHP Clay Hensley, C Eli Whiteside, RHP Brian Wilson

.

Diamondbacks

Additions - RHP Brandon McCarthy, SS Didi Gregorious, SS Cliff Pennington, RHP Heath Bell, OF Eric Hinske, 3B Eric Chavez, LHP Matt Reynolds, LHP Tony Sipp, 1B Lars Anderson, RHP Starling Peralta, 3B Mark Teahan, OF Jeremy Reed

Subtractions - RHP Trevor Bauer, CF Chris Young, RHP Bryan Shaw, RHP Matt Albers, C Henry Blanco, RHP Matt Lindstrom, LHP Mike Zagurski, IF Jake Elmore, RHP Sam Demel, C Konrad Schmidt, RHP Takashi Saito

.

Padres

Additions - (RHP Jason Marquis), OF Travis Buck, RHP Tyson Ross, 1B AJ Kirby-Jones, RHP Sean O'Sullivan, SS Gregorio Petit, RHP Wilfredo Boscan, RHP Brandon Kloess

Subtractions - RHP Tim Stauffer, RHP Dustin Moseley, RHP Cory Burns, LHP Andrew Werner, IF Andy Parrino, LHP Josh Spence, CF Blake Tekotte

.

The Dodgers signed the top ranking starting pitcher in MLB and the top ranking international pitcher. The Giants did not add anyone really, but they used a lot of money freed up by contracts coming off the books to retain notable pieces in Pagan and Scutaro that moved the needle from the start of the off-season. The Diamondbacks have added potentially eight players who will be on their Opening Day roster, including a 3-4 WAR starting pitcher, without losing too much. The Padres haven't done much, but hey.

The only move left that has the Rockies heavily involved would likely not improve the Major League roster, and it probably won't occur anyway.

Dexter Fowler told us on #SXM that Rockies GM Bill Geivett told him that it would take a lot in return for them to trade him to the Braves

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) December 20, 2012

So a failure of the off-season? Not really. Dan O'Dowd has said repeatedly that he expects the team to improve next season just from being healthier and having more experienced young players. That is perfectly reasonable. After winning 64 games in 2012, ZiPS had the Rockies projected to win 75 just from being healthier and more experienced. The lack of moves made this off-season has them projected at 71 wins.

In the end, the difference between 71 wins and 75 wins is not significant. It would take historical fortune in one-run games, pristine health, or multiple unforseen breakouts to push a 75 win team to playoff contention. Instead of paying for the difference, O'Dowd and Geivett appear to be content giving the youth the room to improve, filling in the gaps with cheap, depth veterans. Clearly, 2013 is not the end game goal, nor should it be.

The Rockies brass just has to be careful to field a competitive enough team not to allow the negative momentum in the fan base to continue to snowball.

Links

Top 12 of 2012: GJ Rockies make the Pioneer League playoffs - KKCO in Grand Junction ran down their top 12 sports stories of 2012 leading up to Christmas, and the new Pioneer League team making the playoffs was one of those stories. Honestly, it should be a top 12 Rockies story as well, as it marked the first time the franchise placed a Pioneer League team in the playoffs.

kind of exciting news I think, I just signed a contract to write a movie, about 40,000 to One and my life,

— Ben Petrick (@benpetrick) December 20, 2012

Ten years ago was the catcher of the future for the Rockies, struggling when he should have been Colorado's Buster Posey. He was traded to the Royals for Adam Bernero in 2003, then was out of the game at age 26 after just 43 games in Detroit. It turns out Petrick had Parkinson's Disease. He wrote a book, 40,000 to One, about his struggles. I have not read the book, but there's a last minute Christmas gift idea for you.

OFF TOPIC

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Rich Goose Gossage 2001 Topps Archives 1973
Topps Design

Rich ‘Goose’ Gossage 2001 Topps Archives – 1973 Topps Design The 2001 Topps Archives set is popular because it showcases the great rookie cards of the legendary players in the set. 1973 was ‘Goose’ Gossage’s first season of major league … Continue reading →

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http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2012/12/21/rich-goose-gossage-2001-topps-archives
-1973-topps-design/

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Last Minute Shopping Ideas

With Christmas just a few days away, and many of us struggling to figure out that perfect gift or[...]

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http://blog.lovemyteam.com/2012/12/21/last-minute-shopping-ideas/

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