State of the Pitching Staff

With 45 games in the books, we're now more than a quarter of the way through the 2008 season, so it seems like a good time to step back and look at how the team is doing as a whole. Today I'll run down the pitching staff, and tomorrow I'll dissect the offense.

The Twins rotation took some major hits in the offseason with the losses of Johan Santana, Matt Garza and Carlos Silva. Yet, with solid youngsters available to fill the gaps left behind by these valuable starters along with a bullpen that remained almost totally intact, the Twins still were deemed by many to have at least an average staff overall. Thus far, they've essentially lived up to that billing, having entered last night's game with a 4.11 team ERA that ranked them seventh in the American League and 13th in the majors.

The rotation has not been a real strength thus far -- Twins starters have combined for a 4.61 ERA to rank 12th among 14 AL clubs. I'd say that this unit is due for some improvement, since Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey -- arguably the team's two best starters -- have both been nagged by injuries and haven't been able to settle in. Also, as I mentioned on Friday, Boof Bonser's ERA has been inflated due to some bad luck and is likely to start coming down. I think it's reasonable to expect that Nick Blackburn can hang with an ERA in the low 4's, and while Livan Hernandez is probably due for a few rocky starts, I think it's safe to say he's not nearly in as far over head as Ramon Ortiz was last April.

I suspect Slowey and Bonser will both hit a groove and start rattling off some solid starts, so once the Twins get back Baker (who is, in my mind, the closest thing to an ace on this roster when healthy), I think the Twins will sport a pretty good rotation with an ERA that should gravitate back toward the middle of the pack. The emergence of Glen Perkins as a strong option only adds to this team's impressive starting pitching depth. (Two walks in 16 1/3 IP? Wha?!) Plus, if the team experiences any further injuries or any of the current starters spin out of control, it seems that Francisco Liriano is making some real progress down in Rochester. After allowing just three runs and one walk over eight efficient innings last Thursday, Liriano tossed seven innings of two-run ball against Syracuse yesterday, issuing just one walk while throwing 62 of his 91 pitches for strikes. He managed only three strikeouts and allowed eight hits (all singles), but the fact that he's getting the ball in the zone and avoiding long, drawn-out innings is extremely encouraging.

The bullpen picture isn't quite as promising, but still not terribly alarming. The Twins bullpen entered last night's game with a 3.18 ERA to rank first in the AL and third in the majors. This success has been due in large part to 18 stellar innings from Joe Nathan, along with reliable work from Matt Guerrier and Dennys Reyes. Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain have been frustrating to watch at times thanks to their shaky control (the two have combined for 22 walks in 33 innings), but thus far they've managed to limit hits and runs while posting decent strikeout rates, so the earned run averages haven't been bad (3.63 for Rincon; 4.02 for Crain). Bobby Korecky has certainly held his own thus far, and of course had a huge outing on Monday night which will hopefully allow him to build some confidence going forward.

It's great to see the bullpen so successful up to this point, but you have to wonder how long they can continue at this rate. If Rincon and Crain don't both significantly improve their control, it's only a matter of time before these walks start to haunt them. We've seen over the past few series how much it hurts to not have Pat Neshek in the equation -- Ron Gardenhire is forced to go to unreliable relievers in key situations, and to use Reyes against right-handed hitters (who have been quite successful against him thus far).

If the Twins end up finding themselves in need of bullpen help, there aren't any Nesheks sitting in the minors who look like sure things to come up and dominate immediately. Yet, there are a few guys down in Rochester with the potential to step in and contribute. I mentioned Tim Lahey yesterday as a sizable right-hander who is racking up impressive strikeout totals out of the Red Wings bullpen. Another right-hander who could be called upon is Julio DePaula, a 25-year-old who struggled during his stint with the Twins last year but has posted a 3.42 ERA while holding Triple-A hitters a .198 batting average this season (then again, he's also issued 17 walks in 26 innings, so he might not be the control upgrade the Twins are looking for over Rincon and Crain). Left-handers Mariano Gomez and Ricky Barrett have both pitched well for Rochester, and both have had some success against right-handers, so either one could serve as a potential option.

The loss of Neshek leaves the Twins short on dominating relievers, and I doubt we'll see this unit rank at the top of the league for too much longer, but between the major-league and Triple-A rosters, there is a wide assortment of serviceable arms. The bullpen should be just fine.

Overall, the Twins pitching staff ranks right in the middle of the league and my guess is that they'll hang there for much of the season. If a few things shake out right and the staff can mostly avoid further injuries, there's a decent chance we'll see this unit ranked solidly in the top half of the AL by the halfway point in the season. That might be enough to keep the Twins near the top of the AL Central, but these pitchers will need some help from the offense in order for that to happen. More on that tomorrow.

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http://twinsfanatnicks.blogspot.com/2008/05/state-of-pitching-staff.html

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Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros, 7:05 PM CDT

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Current Series

3 game series vs Cubs @ Minute Maid Park

Mon 05/19WP: Ted Lilly (5 - 4)
LP: Brian Moehler (1 - 1)2 - 7 loss

Chicago Cubs Bleed Cubbie Blue
@ Houston Astros The Crawfish Boxes

Tuesday, May 20, 2008, 7:05 PM CDT
Minute Maid Park

Ryan Dempster vs Chris Sampson

Clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 90.

Complete Coverage >

Wed 05/21

Sean Gallagher vs Shawn Chacon

Clear. Winds blowing out to center field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 80.

7:05 PM CDT

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W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP2008 - Ryan Dempster5-199000057.1352215324482.351.03

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W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP2008 - Chris Sampson2-388000039.055302829186.461.64

 

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Lineup

Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros

05/20/08 7:05 PM CDT

Chicago CubsHouston AstrosAlfonso Soriano - LFMichael Bourn - CFRyan Theriot - SSKazuo Matsui - 2BDerrek Lee - 1BMiguel Tejada - SSAramis Ramirez - 3BLance Berkman - 1BKosuke Fukudome - RFCarlos Lee - LFGeovany Soto - CGeoff Blum - 3BJim Edmonds - CFHunter Pence - RFMark DeRosa - 2BJ.R. Towles - CRyan Dempster - PChris Sampson - P

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NL Central Standings

WLPCTGBSTRKChicago2817.6220Won 2St. Louis2720.5742Won 3Houston2521.5433.5Lost 1Pittsburgh2123.4776.5Lost 1Cincinnati2124.4667Lost 1Milwaukee2024.4547.5Lost 5

(updated 5.20.2008 at 3:05 PM CDT)

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Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2008/5/20/524053/chicago-cubs-at-houston-as

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Sutcliffe returns to the booth after cancer
diagnosis (AP)

Rick Sutcliffe might be more antsy for this game than he was starting the opener of the 1984 NL playoffs for the Chicago Cubs. Sutcliffe returns to the broadcast booth Wednesday for the Atlanta Braves-New York Mets game, his first as an ESPN analyst since being diagnosed with colon cancer during spring training.Read the full [...]

Read The Full Article:
http://mlbnewsblog.com/2008/05/20/sutcliffe-returns-to-the-booth-after-cancer-dia
gnosis-ap/

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My Favorite Mike Piazza Memory

Mike Piazza, as you probably know by now, has retired. He'll be in the Hall of Fame in five years,[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/Cubsfx/~3/294781067/my-favorite-mike-piazza-memory
.html

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2 nights, 2 blown calls: Time for replay (AP)

Chipper Jones has seen enough. Now he wants baseball to take a closer look — at instant replay. “Anything to get calls right,” the Atlanta star said Tuesday. A lot of fans are saying the same thing after umpires botched a pair of home-run rulings on national TV. On Sunday night, umps at Yankee [...]

Read The Full Article:
http://mlbnewsblog.com/2008/05/20/2-nights-2-blown-calls-time-for-replay-ap/

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Rain Delay Mets-Braves Game Two

Update 7:45pm- The game is still delayed. They’re expecting to get the game started soon.The tarp is on the field with a thunderstorm watch in Atlanta. If you don’t want to suffer...

This is a brief summary of the content at MetsReport.com. Visit the site for the full story.

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http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MetsReport/~3/294627587/

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Gmae #46: Lincecum vs. Cook

Don't stop it now.

Go Rockies!

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W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP 2008 - Aaron Cook6-299000060.2562219421292.821.27

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W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP 2008 - Tim Lincecum5-198000056.1501612321631.921.26

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Lineup

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

05/20/08 6:35 PM MDT

San Francisco Giants Colorado Rockies Fred Lewis - LFScott Podsednik - CFRay Durham - 2BClint Barmes - SSRandy Winn - RFMatt Holliday - LFBengie Molina - CTodd Helton - 1BAaron Rowand - CFGarrett Atkins - 3BJohn Bowker - 1BBrad Hawpe - RFRich Aurilia - 3BYorvit Torrealba - COmar Vizquel - SSOmar Quintanilla - 2BTim Lincecum - PAaron Cook - P

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Read The Full Article:
http://www.purplerow.com/2008/5/20/523948/gmae-46-lincecum-vs-cook

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Game #46: Lincecum vs. Cook

Don't stop it now.

Go Rockies!

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W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP 2008 - Aaron Cook6-299000060.2562219421292.821.27

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W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP 2008 - Tim Lincecum5-198000056.1501612321631.921.26

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Lineup

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

05/20/08 6:35 PM MDT

San Francisco Giants Colorado Rockies Fred Lewis - LFScott Podsednik - CFRay Durham - 2BClint Barmes - SSRandy Winn - RFMatt Holliday - LFBengie Molina - CTodd Helton - 1BAaron Rowand - CFGarrett Atkins - 3BJohn Bowker - 1BBrad Hawpe - RFRich Aurilia - 3BYorvit Torrealba - COmar Vizquel - SSOmar Quintanilla - 2BTim Lincecum - PAaron Cook - P

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Read The Full Article:
http://www.purplerow.com/2008/5/20/523948/gmae-46-lincecum-vs-cook

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Waiver review: Barmes is on a tear

There were two huge sports stories on Monday.Read the full story.

Read The Full Article:
http://mlbnewsblog.com/2008/05/20/waiver-review-barmes-is-on-a-tear/

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Pickoff Moves, Bedtime Edition

Win Number One For Lackey: Angels 3, Blue Jays 1

A win in Toronto? Believe it, brother; never mind that Vlad's only hit in the game was a lousy single, or that Garret Anderson didn't get credit for an RBI because he hit into a double play doing it. The man of the hour was John Lackey, getting into and out of trouble but, save for Brad Wilkerson's solo homer in the bottom of the first, gave up nada to earn his first win of the season, and ratcheting down his ERA to a vanishingly small 1.29. Scott Shields and Francisco Rodriguez both got into and weaseled their ways out of bases-loaded jams. Not cool, guys, not cool.

One other not-cool thing to happen during the game: Erick Aybar apparently dislocated a pinky finger. X-rays were negative, but he'll have to see a hand specialist tomorrow. This could work out conveniently if Aybar has to go on the DL, because Chone Figgins could be activated as early as Wednesday.

Speaking of Angels offensive lines, though, it was really interesting to see Mike Napoli end up with an 0-for-0 night at the plate despite four plate appearances. He walked three times (two of those intentional, to get to Sean Rodriguez) and took one for the team when he was hit by a pitch in the top of the eighth. Incredibly, only ten other Angels in history have gone 0-for-0 with four or more plate appearances, the last being Scott Spiezio on May 15, 2003. Mo Vaughn also had it happen to him on July 20, 2000; Vaughn walked four times and was hit by then-Texas starter Darren Oliver.

Yahoo box • Recap

Power Bills: Dodgers 4, Reds 1

A tremendous performance by Chad Billingsley, no doubt helped by the Reds' hacktastic tendencies, and his offense by their porous defense (their .677 DER is worst in the majors). Bills struck out seven, and as much as I like the whiffs, the win is better still; recall he struck out 12 on April 24 but took the loss anyway, and has won only two games so far where he has struck out seven or more, the other being April 30 against the Fish.

Yahoo box • Recap

Kevin Towers Ready To Reach For The Dynamite

... because even he can't stand the stink the Padres are putting up this year:

?We?re bad, no question about it,? Towers said. ?There comes a point in time we can?t say, ?It?s early.? There?s nothing to lead me to believe ? or the fans to believe ? we?re going to turn this thing around.?

He promised changes. ?Wholesale,? he said. And he waved his hands at the clubhouse, meaning most of the players in it, he had little use for right now.

?I?m certainly not going to watch this for another four months,? he said.

Judging by the stands at Petco Park on Monday night, he?s not alone in that.

I wonder if this means the end of Buddy Black's tenure as manager, too.

Padres Disable Peavy

The Padres have placed starter Jake Peavy on the 15-day DL with a strained and swollen elbow. They called up LHP Joe Thatcher to replace him for the duration.

Jay Jaffe On Piazza's Hall Of Fame Case

A good piece by Jay Jaffe on Mike Piazza's Hall of Fame case:

Piazza?s JAWS case is indeed good, and if it?s not overwhelming, then at the very least it becomes a bit better upon closer inspection. The most recent numbers I have ... show Piazza at 96.2 WARP for his peak and 64.6 for his career, for a JAWS of 80.4. The JAWS standard for Hall of Fame catchers is 98.9/60.8/79.9. So Piazza inches past the overall standard despite being a little short on career value owing to the impact of his awful defense (-154 FRAA, the ninth-worst of any player anywhere). He?s significantly ahead on peak .... Piazza?s .311 EqA is the all-time high for the position. No Hall of Fame catcher has an EqA above .300, though there are several in the .295?.299 range and the positional average is a robust .289. ... Piazza?s 472 Batting Runs Above Average is light years ahead of the rest of the backstop pack. No Hall of Fame catcher has more than Johnny Bench?s 325 BRAA.

Read The Full Article:
http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2008/05/pickoff-moves-bedtime-edition.html

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