Baseball Physicist Allan Nathan discusses how to determine pitch movement from Pitch F/X data:
Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus lists baseball's most immovable players (whaddp Vernon Wells)Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: Baseball's Most Immovable Players
A-Rod’s combination of age, salary, and disappointing performance would make him a nightmare to move, but where does his contract rank among the majors’ most difficult to deal? No contract is truly untradeable if a team decides it’s a sunk cost, but the dozen deals below would find few takers unless a team were willing to help pay the player’s way out of town. (Note: rankings mostly for fun.):
Kiley McDaniel reports back on the progress of a few Yankees' instructional league players: Reports From Instructs: New York Yankees (Pt 1) | FanGraphs Baseball
Where a full report from a pro scout could be up to a paragraph on each tool and a summary, instructs reports are typically a handful of sentences in total. So, my reports from instructs will be these abbreviated impressions, unless it’s a player I got a full look at during the spring. The Yankees recently closed camp, so I’ll start this series with a three part look at their players from instructs.
Shane Sanders and Adam Winn look into differences between a player's wOBA and OPS: Ordinal comparisons of wOBA and OPS--THT
However, in 1,968 pairs (4.2 percent of all pairs), the two measures diverge in choosing a superior offensive player (i.e., one player had a higher wOBA while the other player had a higher OPS). If a team compares 16 randomly selected players in a pairwise manner, we expect 5 of the 120 pairwise comparisons to differ depending on the measure used. Based on the two sets of player rankings, we developed a wOBA percentile ranking and an OPS percentile ranking for each player. These percentile rankings are similar to one’s percentile ranking on the SAT exam. A 90th percentile ranking, for example, indicates that one performed better than 90 percent of peers taking the exam.
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Add to myYahoo!This week we’re looking at Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures how an individual[...]
Read The Full Article:
http://blog.lovemyteam.com/2012/10/18/win-probability-added-player-analysis/
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Add to myYahoo!Fergie Jenkins 2005 Playoff Absolute Memorabilia Tools Of The Trade – Blue I showed you the ‘Red’ version of this card that I bought two weeks ago. Well, I also nabbed the ‘Blue’. And she is numbered as 52/150. Have … Continue reading →![]()
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http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2012/10/18/fergie-jenkins-2005-playoff-absolute-m
emorabilia-tools-of-the-trade-blue/
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Add to myYahoo!YANKEES (0-3)
Ichiro Suzuki LF
Nick Swisher RF
Robinson Cano 2B
Mark Teixeira 1B
Raul Ibaņez DH
Eric Chavez 3B
Russell Martin C
Brett Gardner CF
Eduardo Nuņez SS
LHP CC Sabathia
TIGERS (3-0)
Austin Jackson CF
Omar Infante 2B
Miguel Cabrera 3B
Prince Fielder 1B
Delmon Young DH
Jhonny Peralta SS
Andy Dirks LF
Avisail Garcia RF
Gerald Laird C
RHP Max Scherzer
Read The Full Article:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/SlidingIntoHome/~3/yU_3R8pEDgo/alcs-game-4-lineups
-rod-rides-pine-again.html
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This is the fourth installment of the Fall 2012 PuRPs list. As a reminder, 23 ballots were cast in this edition of the PuRPs poll, with 30 points being granted for a first place vote, 29 for second, etc. Until a player was named on 8 ballots, his vote totals were modified on a sliding scale to avoid an individual ballot having too much say over the community forecast -- but none of the above players had that problem, as all 30 players on the PuRPs list were named on at least 8 ballots.
For each player on the PuRPs list, I've included a link to their stats (via Baseball-Reference), their relevant "tool score indicators" compared to their league on a 1-100 scouting scale (which is explained here) per the wonderful Baseball Cube, their contract status (via Rockies Roster), their probable MLB ETA (assuming they do make the Show), and a note on their 2012 season to date. For what it's worth, I'll also include where I put them on my personal ballot.
Remember that neither the tool scores nor the statistics pages are the end-all be-all when evaluating these players. Context is hugely important (such as the player's age relative to the league's average or the league average offensive numbers), as is the fact that injuries to prospects can affect both their tools and their stats.
Here are PuRPs 15-11:
15. Tom Murphy (287 points, 20 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: NR -- High Ballot 9, Mode (most common when placed) Ballot 10
Murphy, a 21 year-old catcher who played at short season Tri City after being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, had a very successful year in the Northwest League. In a pitching-friendly environment, Murphy produced a .288/.349/.462 line while providing good defense at a premium defensive position, which is why he rates so highly on this list (and why he rated 15th on mine).
Of course, hitting like that as a 21 year-old in the NWL is one thing -- if Murphy is to make the leap, he'll have to prove himself against better competition, and he'll have to do it quicker because of his age.
Hit Tools
Contract Status: 2012 3rd Round, Not Rule 5 Eligible, 3 options remaining
MLB ETA: 2016
At this point in the list, there is a pretty big demarcation, with every player from here on out placing on almost every ballot -- and consistently placing in the top half of ballots as well.
14. Jayson Aquino (367 points, 23 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: 27 -- High Ballot 7, Mode Ballot 15
Aquino, a 19 year-old LHP who split time between the Dominican Summer League and Grand Junction, has been dominant every season he's pitched for the Rockies organization. He had a 1.02 ERA in his age 17 season and he followed it up with a 1.30 ERA the next year. This season he slipped all the way down to a 1.66 ERA over two levels, with a WHIP of 0.90. So far, Aquino has a career line of 22-6, 1.39 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and a 8.6 K/9 rate over 259.2 innings. In other words, his performance as a professional has been pretty ridiculous thus far.
Once you get over the crazy numbers, it's important to consider context. Aquino was pitching in the DSL for the 3rd straight year (who knows why at this point), which does suppress power particularly. It's an environment where pitchers with great control like Aquino can thrive by pitching to contact. Then again, while Aquino didn't strike out as many hitters in Grand Junction (7.5 K/9), he was still pretty darn effective in his cameo stateside (1.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 43 IP).
I've been putting Aquino on my ballot for the last 4 iterations of this poll (he was 19th on mine simply because he's still very far away), but he needed to come to the US to receive up-ballot consideration. A repeat at rookie or short season ball is probable, though I'd like to see him at Asheville by the end of next year.
Pitch Tools
Contract Status: 2010 Amateur Free Agent (DR), Not Rule 5 Eligible, 3 options remaining
MLB ETA: 2017
13. Eddie Butler (420 points, 22 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: NR -- High Ballot 5, Mode Ballot 5
Butler, a 21 year-old RHP at Grand Junction, was probably the best pitcher in the rookie-level Pioneer League, putting up a 7-1 record with a 2.13 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The bigger question was why Butler, Colorado's supplemental first round pick int 2012, was pitching in that league and not in short season Tri-City. The answer is complicated, but I'm sure that the desire to launch the new affiliate location with a winning team played into the decision somewhat.
In any case, while Butler did rank as high as 5th on 4 separate ballots, the reason he's down at 13 on this list (he was 16th on mine) are likely tied to his merely okay strikeout rate (7.5 K/9) and his advanced age for the league. Continued success at higher levels will help to assuage these concerns.
Pitch Tools
Contract Status: 2012 Supplemental 1st Round, Not Rule 5 eligible, 3 options remaining
MLB ETA: 2016
12. Tim Wheeler (428 points, 23 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: 9 -- High Ballot 3, Mode Ballot 11
Wheeler, a 24 year-old lefty outfielder in AAA Colorado Springs, seemed to be very affected by injuries in 2012. After all, in 2011 Wheeler hit 33 homers and in 2012 he hit just 2 after sustaining a hamate bone injury. Wheeler managed to hit pretty well (.303/.352/.412), but if he's ever going to be anything more than a 4th outfielder, he's going to need to hit for power at the major league level.
Wheeler has played center field throughout his minor league career (though he split time at all 3 positions in 2012), which has set him apart somewhat from prospects like Corey Dickerson and Kyle Parker, but there are doubts about whether he will stick there in MLB. Another knock on the left-handed outfielder is that he hasn't demonstrated the ability to hit left-handed pitching consistently. That combined with his lack of power in every year except 2011 makes me a little leery of Wheeler's MLB prospects.
Then again, even without a ton of power, Wheeler is still a speedy outfielder with a (supplemental) first round pedigree who is on the verge of the major league level. If his power returns and he can become more than a platoon player offensively, he could be a league average outfielder, which is why I placed him 13th on my list. If not...well forget I said anything.
Hit Tools
Contract Status: 2009 Supplemental 1st Round, Rule 5 eligible, 3 options remaining
MLB ETA: 2013
11. Edwar Cabrera (442 points, 23 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: 11 -- High Ballot 6, Mode Ballot 12
Cabrera, a 24 year-old (he turns 25 on Saturday) pitcher who bounced between AA Tulsa, AAA Colorado Springs, and the Rockies this year, has been an enigma for a couple of years now. After all, he's dominated almost everywhere he's pitched (Coors Field excepted) and has sported a career 11.1 K/9 rate, 3.13 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP over 7 minor league levels and 501 innings.
And yet, all of that is clouded by the fact that Cabrera has been old at every level he's pitched, he's given up a LOT of homers in the upper minors (21 last year in 129 minor league innings), and that he's more of a finesse pitcher with great control whose stuff might not strike out a bunch of major league hitters. Putting him 11th on this list (12th on my ballot) seems like a good settling place for Cabrera given the fact that his flaws/age keep him from the truly elite, while his performance at the upper levels pushes him above the second tier of prospects.
Pitch Tools
Contract Status: 2008 FA (DR), 40 Man Roster, 2 options remaining
MLB ETA: 2016
Stay tuned for more installments of the 2012 Fall PuRPs List in the coming days!
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It's time for the Fall 2012 PuRPs list, the Purple Row community's list of the top 30 Rockies prospects.
It's time for the Fall 2012 PuRPs list, the Purple Row community's list of the top 30 Rockies prospects. I will reveal these prospects five at a time to give people who aren't in the know a little bit more of information on them.
23 ballots were cast in this edition of the PuRPs poll, with 30 points being granted for a first place vote, 29 for second, etc. Until a player was named on 8 ballots, his vote totals were modified on a sliding scale to avoid an individual ballot having too much say over the community forecast -- but none of the above players had that problem, as all 30 players on the PuRPs list were named on at least 8 ballots. The first tiebreaker goes to the player who was ranked on the most ballots, then to the one who was ranked highest on an individual PuRPs ballot, and the 3rd is the mode ballot (we needed that one on this list).
In all, 64 players received at least one vote for this PuRPs list, 52 got mentioned on multiple ballots, 35 were named on at least 8 ballots (and therefore were unmodified), and 17 were named on at least 20 ballots, showing that the top 50% of the list was more or less agreed upon by the community, if not necessarily the order. Here is a link to the polling thread.
All prospects who retained their Rookie of the Year eligibility (less than 130 ABs, 50 IP, and 45 days on the active roster) were eligible for selection on this list. Among last spring's list, Drew Pomeranz (2), Christian Friedrich (6), Josh Rutledge (7), Charlie Blackmon (15), and DJ LeMahieu (18) exhausted their eligibility.
More discussion on the voting will be included in the final installment of this series, but here are the five players who came closest to inclusion on the Fall 2012 PuRPs List:
35. Ryan Warner (40 points, 9 ballots), 2012 3rd round, RHP at Grand Junction (18)
34. Kent Matthes (48.1 points, 7 ballots), 2009 4th round, OF at Tulsa (25)
33. Miguel Dilone (51 points, 12 ballots), 2011 FA (DR), 2B at DSL (19)
32. David Kandilas (68 points, 9 ballots), 2009 FA (AU), OF at Asheville (22)
31. Max White (70 points, 13 ballots), 2012 2nd round, OF at Grand Junction (19)
Most of the five listed above are years away from contributing to a Rockies team. The names I'd watch in particular would be White (who had an abysmal pro debut, but has a 2nd round pedigree) and Dilone (who slugged very well in a league where that doesn't happen very often and who has MLB bloodlines). I ranked White 28th and Dilone 24th on my personal list.
For each player on the PuRPs list, I've included a link to their stats (via Baseball-Reference), their relevant "tool score indicators" compared to their league on a 1-100 scouting scale (which is explained here) per the wonderful Baseball Cube, their contract status (via Rockies Roster), their probable MLB ETA (assuming they do make the Show), and a note on their 2012 season to date. For what it's worth, I'll also include where I put them on my personal ballot.
Remember that neither the tool scores nor the statistics pages are the end-all be-all when evaluating these players. Context is hugely important (such as the player's age relative to the league's average or the league average offensive numbers), as is the fact that injuries to prospects can affect both their tools and their stats.
Here are the first members of the Fall 2012 PuRPs List:
30. Ryan Garvey (74 points, 10 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: NR -- High Ballot 15, Mode (most common when placed) Ballot 24
Garvey, a 19 year-old outfielder who played for Grand Junction, was notable this year for more than the fact that he is the son of former Dodger great Steve Garvey. He hit .304/.397/.559 this year as an age-appropriate player in the Pioneer league, good enough for me to rank him 27th on my list. Then again, it's important to note that this is just a 121 PA sample and that he was only a 33rd round pick. We'll get a much better idea of his ability next year at a higher level.
Hit Tools
Contract Status: 2012 33rd Round, Not Rule 5 eligible, 3 options remaining
MLB ETA: 2017
29. Parker Frazier (84 points, 10 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: 29 -- High Ballot 15, Mode Ballot 22
Frazier, a 23 year-old RHP at Tulsa, is another prospect known more for his famous father than his on-field exploits. Though Frazier's AA line was decent (3.88 ERA, 2.2 BB/9), he's a finesse pitcher (posting only a 5.0 K/9 ratio) who has a pretty low ceiling, which is why I didn't place Frazier on my list. Frazier could have a MLB future as a spot starter a year or two down the line, but it will be interesting to see if the Rockies protect him from the Rule 5 draft this year given his limited ceiling. I'm guessing that they won't.
Pitch Tools
Contract Status: 2007 8th round, Rule 5 draft eligible, 3 options remaining
MLB ETA: 2014
28. Zach Putnam (86 points, 8 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: 19 -- High Ballot 14, Mode Ballot (none)
Putnam, a 24 year-old right-handed relief pitcher for AAA Colorado Springs was acquired in the Kevin Slowey trade during the off-season (we had Slowey for like 2 months) as a live relief arm profiling as a set-up reliever with the ability to get the ball up in the low-mid 90s with a quality sinking fastball.
He already has some MLB experience -- in fact, it's probably a bit of a misnomer to call him a prospect given his near certainty of throwing out of the bullpen at the next level. Then again, he didn't make more than a cameo appearance for Colorado last year despite this and struggled a little in AAA (a 4.0 BB/9 mitigated his 7.3 K/9), which is why he fell out of consideration for my list. Ultimately though, this is a player that Rockies fans can have some confidence of seeing for the big club next year.
Pitch Tools
Contract Status: 2012 Trade, 40 Man Roster, 2 options remaining
MLB ETA: Now
27. Sam Mende (101 points, 12 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: 23 -- High Ballot 15, Mode Ballot 25
The 22 year-old Mende, a right-handed 3B who played for Low A Asheville in 2012, is a 31st round draft pick in 2011 that crushed the ball in Casper and played fairly well in Low A (.281/.340/.467 with 53 XBHs), though he was a little old for the level and he cooled off considerably after a hot start.
Given his lack of prospect pedigree, age, and lack of distinctive defensive skill, Mende will have to follow the Corey Dickerson path (keep hitting everywhere you go) to notoriety. Mende was under consideration for my list, but I'd like to see him hit well at High A next season.
Hit Tools
Contract Status: 2011 31st Round, Not Rule 5 eligible, 3 options remaining
MLB ETA: Late 2015
26. Julian Yan (129 points, 12 ballots) -- Spring 2012 Ranking: NR -- High Ballot 16, Mode Ballot 18
The 20 year-old Yan is a right-handed OF who repeated at rookie level in 2012. On a team that Colorado had stacked with its top 2012 draftees, they made sure to include Yan in their everyday lineup, which certainly caught my eye. Yan hit .282/.357/.529 with 16 HRs in 66 games -- exhibiting his prodigious power. Scouts were impressed enough to rank Yan the 14th best prospect in the Pioneer League.
Since I'm a sucker for power and the scouts saw something there, I was willing to overlook his lack of track record and his poor plate discipline and ranked him 23rd on my ballot. It's about when I got to Yan that I truly realized how lacking in depth this system is.
Hit Tools
Contract Status: 2009 FA (DR), Not Rule 5 eligible, 3 options remaining
MLB ETA: 2016
Stay tuned for more installments of the 2012 Fall PuRPs List in the near future!
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Add to myYahoo!DETROIT (AP) — Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson were still out of New York’s starting lineup for Game 4 of the AL championship series on Thursday, a day after the game was postponed by rain.
Read The Full Article:
http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2012/10/18/a-rod-granderson-still-out-of-lineup-for-ga
me-4-yahoo-sports/
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Add to myYahoo!I was busy at work all day yesterday so I was unable to post, but if you missed it, there was a ton of talk about Miami being a possible destination for Alex Rodriguez if the Yankees do try an unload his contract this offseason. Well, today we have this report from Bob Nightengale that says if the situation was right, Alex, who has a full no-trade clause, may accept the deal:
Take a good, long hard look at him.First, let me say that A-Rod has been awful this October. However, so has 90% of the starting lineup so really, why are we still blaming everyone's favorite scapegoat?
This will be the last time you'll ever see Alex Rodriguez in a New York Yankees uniform.
We might have already seen him play his last game for the Bronx Bombers.
The Yankees, desperate for offense, and set to play in an elimination game Wednesday night, benched their greatest and most expensive star for the second consecutive game.
Though Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against the Detroit Tigers was postponed by rain, the Yankees already tipped their hand and had him on the bench, leaving A-Rod humiliated.
The Yankees are making it loud and clear they want Rodriguez out as quickly as possible.
Rodriguez, his pride and ego damaged beyond repair, is now telling close friends that he won't stand in the way.
Rodriguez, who has a full no-trade clause, won't ask to be traded, a person familiar with Rodriguez's thinking told USA TODAY Sports. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation.
...
He will welcome a trade, the person says, but it must to be to another big-market club. Hint: He won't be going to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The most likely choices would be the Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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Earlier today, we summarized the relative success of Jose Reyes's first year with the Miami Marlins. Reyes was clearly one of the few bright spots of the 2012 season for the Fish, and he was a consistent one, both in terms of month-to-month production and in consistent appearances, as Reyes started all but two games in 2012.
So one would immediately think that, based on the fact that Reyes's play was a relative success this season, Reyes started off playing ot the level of his six-year, $104 million contract. The Marlins' largest splash this past offseason was clearly the signing of Reyes, who was coming off of a career year at the plate. But as we mentioned at the time of the signing, the contract Reyes received was not "paying for a career year" as many outsiders thought, but rather it was a mostly fair deal that, at worst, was an overpay of about $15 million over the life of the deal.
But since then, Reyes has actually played a full season with the Fish already. Has his performance thus far met the expectations of his contract?
Let us review his statistics again, but this time with an average of the three Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metrics commonly cited on this site (FanGraphs fWAR, Baseball-Reference's rWAR, and Baseball Prospectus's WARP) after adjusting them to the same baseline as outlined in this Beyond the Box Score article.
Reyes's season seems reasonably measured as a year worth between three and 3.5 wins in 2012. Given that we have been using a mark of $4.5 to 4.8 million per win as a dollar value for contracts, Reyes likely produced somewhere between $13.5 million to $16.8 million in value in 2012.
Was that worth the value of his contract? One could argue that, given the structure of the deal, Reyes clearly met his expectations. Recall that the Marlins are paying Reyes just $10 million this season as part of their backloading of his contract. Reyes will only be paid $10 million in 2013 as well before his salary escalates to $16 million in 2014 and $22 million in each of the final three seasons. With regards to how much the Fish are actually paying him, clearly the Fish have gotten their money's worth in the first year.
The problem with this evaluation is that the Marlins are clearly paying less now because they will be owing Reyes more money in future seasons. And of course, because Reyes will be owed upwards of $22 million in future seasons, the team needs to get as much surplus value out of these cheaper years to make up for the expensive years later on. This season, Reyes only provided around $3.5 million to $6.8 million in surplus value in 2012 season. Consider, however, what he needed to do to match his average annual value of his contract of $17.3 million. Reyes needed to produce 3.6 to 3.8 WAR in 2012 to match his average annual contract value, and he fell just short of that mark.
This does not even consider the likely decline of Reyes as the years progress. The Marlins signed Reyes at age 29, when he should theoretical be at his prime. The Marlins signed Reyes with a deal accounting for Reyes's prime and decline in future seasons. My guess is that the Fish only have two more seasons, 2013 and 2014, with Reyes at or around his prime before he will suffer his decline. Given our preseason projection, it seemed like Reyes would at worst be a bit of an overpay had he begun the 2012 season as a four- to 4.5-win player. Now he has fallen short of not only his average annual contract value, but also well below his 2012 expectations necessary to match his contract.
Yes, Jose Reyes was a success in a vacuum for the Fish in 2012. But when you consider his projections, he still missed his expectations and, when you look forward into the future of his contract, his lowered expectations make it less likely that he will be worth the value of his deal. The Marlins will be hoping for a bounceback season with a better overall performance at the plate from their speedy, committed shortstop.
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Read The Full Article:
http://www.ladodgertalk.com/2012/10/the-dodgers-need-another-outfielder/
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