Mike Schmidt 1982 Fleer

Mike Schmidt 1982 Fleer For the most part, this card is just plain awful. I will give credit to Fleer for at least matching the frame of the card to Schmidt’s uniform color.  But beyond that, this card is a … Continue reading →

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Five Reasons Dickey Makes Sense for the Jays

I am a Blue Jays fan, so you are welcome to call this article homerism at its finest if you’d like, but I firmly believe that the R.A. Dickey acquisition, in conjunction with the earlier offseason moves the team has made, make the Jays the AL East favorite.

I believe in most circles, the deal is being called a "win-win" once you work under the assumption that the Mets were resigned to trading Dickey. (Obviously, keeping a stud pitcher at a quarter of his value is preferable to almost any package.) The Jays improve now for certain, while the Mets improve later, probably. It’s the type of deal that makes sense when one team is "close" and another is rebuilding or retooling.

Still, there has been some tepid reaction to the Jays giving up two highly regarded prospects and tacking on two years and a reported $25M to Dickey’s existing one-year, $5M deal. The deal also includes a $12M option for 2016, making his current contract essentially a three-year, $30M one or a four-year, $42M one.

Here are some reasons I like the deal for the Jays.

Reason #1 – This Isn’t Stock-Brokering

The goal in baseball is not to cultivate value forever. The goal is to maximize value as much as possible at a single time. Some people or teams may disagree, but I firmly believe that. As Drew Fairservice of Getting Blanked’s new Twitter name reveals, flags do, indeed, fly forever.

Listen, I’d love to root for a team that will always be great. But for most fans in most markets, that’s not realistic. Is it better, then, to have a team go for broke over a shorter window, hoping to grab a championship banner? Fans of the ’92 and ’93 Jays would probably say yes, considering the recent outpouring of early-90’s memories when Tom Cheek was deservedly given the Ford C. Frick Award.

If the goal is to peak ("be excellent") over maintain ("be good for longer") than this is the right move for the Jays.

Reason #2 – The Window Isn’t Really Shortened

Yes, the Jays have given up a few prospects this offseason, and it’s likely enough to knock them from a top-five farm system to the teen-range. But they haven’t emptied out the farm by any means, and many of their core players are still young or still in their prime.

Anthony Gose is probably their only high-level hitting prospect now, and he is flawed. But he’s also a potential plus in center field with plus-plus baserunning, making him a capable replacement for Colby Rasmus if he has another down year and becomes a non-tender or trade candidate. He’s also still a trade chip if another move is warranted down the line.

Beyond that, yes, they’ve given up a lot of pitching, but they’re still pretty stacked. Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins may not figure things out, but Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, Daniel Norris, Arodys Cardona and more are around. They also have top picks in Matt Smoral and Marcus Stroman, the latter who could impact the bullpen this year.

The Jays gave up future value for present value. But it’s impossible not to without overspending on the free agent market. Their system isn’t bare, and on the mound there is still a ready pipeline available to supplement the rotation in 2014 and beyond.

Reason #3 – The Marginal Value of Wins

What does this mean, without getting too economics-y? Basically, improving from 78 to 81 wins doesn’t mean much, but improving from 88 to 91 wins is huge. That is, "marginal wins" (extra wins you add or lose) are more valuable the higher you go on the win spectrum, because they improve your chances of winning a division or wild card spot by far more.

"Adding three wins" is not the same for, say, the Royals as it is the Jays – even though they won a similar number of games last year, the Jays’ earlier moves made them more of an 85-win team, while the Royals were maybe a 75-win team. Thus, if both teams add three wins, it means much more to the Jays than the Royals, pushing them to 88 wins and a near-playoff spot compared to 78 wins and a playoff whiff.

(Three is a random number I chose to illustrate the point, not my estimate of Shields/Dickey value. Ditto for the win totals.)

Based on this article on the economics of winning, in 2006, the Jays’ 90th win would have had a marginal revenue gain of $2.9M, slightly above the league average (that is, Jays’ fans or the Jays’ financial structure is slightly more elastic with respect to team success). The same study showed that for the Jays, the value of jumping from 78 to 83 wins was $4.3M but the value of jumping from 86 to 91 wins was $12.5M, again both slightly above league average.

Basically, for all teams, but a tiny bit more for the Jays, moving from "also-ran" to "legitimate contender" can have huge financial implications. Given the Jays cost and revenue structure has changed since 2006, as they have for probably every team, these numbers might not hold exactly true any longer, but the idea certainly does – both in financial terms and in terms of a potential playoff berth, these "extra" wins in 2013 are far more valuable than they would have been at the start of the offseason.

(In that same vein, it’s unlikely the Jays do this deal without the Marlins deal or a similar trade, as it wouldn’t make as much sense to swap future gains for present ones if they were "lower" on the win curve.)

Reason #4 – R.A. Dickey is Very Good

Rany Jazayerli of Grantland summed up Dickey pretty nicely today, explaining basically the following points:

• He’s very good
• Knuckleballers age well
• Knuckleballers tend to get injured less, and he has no UCL anyway
• Thus, he’s likely to remain very good, or close to it

As a quick comparison, here are some other pitchers and what they signed for in terms of Average Annual Value:

• Zack Greinke - $24.5M, 14.2WAR 2010-12
• Anibal Sanchez - $16M, 12WAR 2010-12
• Hiroki Kuroda - $15M, 10.1WAR 2010-12
• Ryan Dempster - $13.25M, 9.2WAR 2010-12
• Dan Haren - $13M, 12.3WAR 2010-12
• Andy Pettite - $12M, 4WAR 2010-12 (*excludes 2011)
• R.A. Dickey - $10M, 9.9WAR 2010-12
• Jeremy Guthrie - $8.33M, 5.6WAR 2010-12
• Brandon McCarthy - $7.75M, 6.6WAR 2010-12 (*excludes 2010)
• Joe Blanton - $7.5M, 4.8WAR 2010-12
• Hisashi Iwakuma - $7M, 0.8WAR 2010-12 (*excludes 2010-11)

It’s pretty clear that Dickey is a bargain for the Jays if he retains even most of his 2010-12 performance, which, again, as Rany pointed out, is pretty damn likely. Please note, too, that I used fWAR rather than WAR based on RA9, which would favor Dickey even further since knuckleballers tend to outperform their FIP and thus an RA9-based WAR would give Dickey a boost (his RA9 WAR from 2010-12 is a robust 14.8).

Reason #5 – It's Probably Enough

It’s mostly just repeating the points but the lineup and rotation now stack up like so:

1 – Jose Reyes, SS

2 – Melky Cabrera, LF

3 – Jose Bautista, RF

4 – Edwin Encarnacion, DH

5 – Adam Lind, 1B

6 – Brett Lawrie, 3B

7 – Colby Rasmus, CF

8 – JP Arencibia, C

9 – Maicer Izturis, 2B

BN – Emilio Bonifacio, super-sub

Sure, you'd like to upgrade Lind, but one hole in the lineup isn't going to kill the team. They have three switch-hitters, and only really lack a lefty power bat to split up the heart (and send Lind to the bench). You can pick apart the bottom three spots, but they're all capable players given their role on the team. The Jays are probably tapped out, so get used to some iteration of these 10 guys.

1 – Josh Johnson

2 – Brandon Morrow

3 – R.A. Dickey

4 – Ricky Romero

5 – Mark Buehrle

6/Swing – J.A. Happ

Looks good to me.

Follow @BlakeMurphyODC

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Tuesday Rockpile: Rockies Need Road Weapons

These issues are very difficult to separate for any team, but particularly for the Rockies. Colorado spends 3-12 games at the unique environment in LoDo, then play their game of inches in a completely different physical environment for an roughly equal amount of time. The rapid adjustment is something Colorado hitters have failed to conquer for decades, so it should not be surprising that most Rockies rank poorly in Bill Petti's batter volatility ratings from yesterday.

From day to day, Rockies hitters are very inconsistent. Carlos Gonzalez was roughly average, Jordan Pacheco was the 25th most consistent, and Tyler Colvin was the 11th least consistent. Only Gonzalez and Pacheco (among qualified hitters) came up on the positive side of the ledger. This partially captures the difficulty of going from Coors Field to the road, where Colorado was particularly bad on offense in 2012.

The only area where Colorado was respectable was BABIP, which actually makes the rest of their offensive numbers look worse. And yes, the entire team had a worse on base percentage than BABIP. They had no punch, no made little contact and rarely took a free pass.

The whole "dominating at home and playing .500 on the road breeds a winner" canard still requires winning on the road half the time. While capturing magic at Coors Field would be a plus, there will still be 81 games on the road that Dante Bichette needs to prep his hitters for. Or maybe they should use players whose approach is clipped the least by the transition from Coors to the road. Jordan Pacheco comes to mind, but while Pacheco scored well in Petti's volatility rating, it wasn't due to consistency between home and road: Pacheco had a 125 home wRC+ and a 63 road wRC+.

I present to only hitter (other than Troy Tulowitzki) who was above league average for the Rockies on the road last season:

Now, if only the Rockies can figure out how to use him.

.

Links

Baseball Prospectus | Western Front: An Almost Defense of Kevin Towers - Geoff Young has been a Padres fan for decades, which means he witnessed a lot of Kevin Towers. Young does not so much defend the Bauer trade at all - he simply recounts certain trades of Padres past that had him livid....only to see the Padres come out on the better end.

Baseball Prospectus | Scouting the Draft: College Left-Handed Pitchers - Sean Manaea, Boras client and likely top ten pick, is one of five profiled here (subscription required).

The Art Of The Knuckleball - sportsnet.ca - Alan Nathan, professor emeritus of physics (and @pobguy), talks about the knuckler in light of the final consummation of the Dickey trade.

Remember this ridiculous video from last year? That hero of Rockies lore appealed his suspension, citing his Constitutional rights were violated, and won.

Aneury Rodriguez signs in Korea - the last time the Rockies acquired a starting pitcher from a different team and came out looking brilliant was almost four years ago, right before the 2009 season. That was when Dan O'Dowd took Jason Hammel from Tampa Bay in exchange for AA pitcher Aneury Rodriguez, who has now pitched through the minors, gone to Houston in Rule 5, and is now out of the league. He will pitch for the Samsung Lions.

OFF TOPIC

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TCB Astros Podcast: Ending The Year With A Bang
Astros-Style

Sponsored by Leiturgia Communications

TCB Podcast ready and willing to invade your thoughts and tickle your ear drums regarding everything Houston Astros baseball.

The Astros did it again, right after recording a regular podcast with Astros prospect Brady Rodgers the Astros decided to go out and sign Carlos Pena to a one year deal.

The regular podcast (episode 66) includes myself and David interviewing Brady Rodgers on everything from being selected by the Astros, to pitching for the Astros, to being a fan of the Astros. The interview with Brady Rodgers is a director's cut, I've added some audio that wasn't on-air so be sure to check it out if you've only listened to the live podcast recording.

The second podcast is our Astros Afterburners podcast with David, Sean and myself discussing the Astros recent signing of Carlos Pena, the expandability of Brett Wallace and the trade market for Jed Lowrie and Bud Norris.

Needless to say, for the year 2012 we sent off any regular listeners and subscribers to the podcast out with a bang. We were really excited to have Brady Rodgers on, who is a huge Astros fan by the way, and the Astros Afterburners podcast was one the best of its kind yet. Both podcast are easily one of the best podcasts we've done yet.

We hope to continue that excellence in 2013!

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[Direct] - TCB Podcast Episode 66

[Direct] - Astros Afterburners Podcast - Carlos Pena Signs With Houston

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If you have any comments or questions in regards to the podcast you can email the show at SBN.crawfishboxes@gmail.com. If you have a question please be sure to include your name and where you're from. Also big thanks to those of you that have rated us on iTunes we really appreciate the feedback.

TCBP 66: Brady Rodgers Interview

Astros Afterburners podcast - Carlos Pena signs with Houston

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Miami Marlins Rumors: Marlins "Not Real
Interested" In Los Angeles Angels' Peter Bourjos

The Miami Marlins do not have a lot of options available in terms of acquiring players, so if the team is looking to improve on the 2013 roster, it cannot be too picky or choosy. When it comes to available players for upgrades in the outfield, one name that has come up fairly often is Los Angeles Angels center fielder Peter Bourjos, who is available in part because of the signing of Josh Hamilton.

At first blush, this seems like a great match for the Marlins, who have not had a talented defender in center field since Juan Pierre's better days. With an expansive outfield in Marlins Park, one would think that the Fish would prioritize a defensive talent like Bourjos's, especially since he also has some speed to play with the Marlins' plan to "force the issue" on offense in 2013. In that respect, Bourjos would fit right in next to players like the returning Pierre and Donovan Solano.

But, as with all possible transactions, the issue is the price. MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says that the Marlins may be interested if the price is right.

The Angels are looking for an established starting pitcher. Miami's Ricky Nolasco is set to make $11.5 million in the final year of his contract.

But the chances of the Marlins trading Nolasco before the start of Spring Training are slim. Still, there is growing speculation that the right-hander could be on the move close to the July Trade Deadline if Miami is not in contention.

For Bourjos, the Marlins may not have to part with Nolasco. The team might be able to put together a package of prospects. From an organizational standpoint, there is more Minor League pitching depth through recent trades and First-Year Player Draft picks.

So there are more pieces now than in recent years to make moves that could immediately help the big league club.

The Marlins have a few assets with which to trade, but it seems the most attractive trade option for the Marlins' side is also ironically the one the team does not want to send away. Despite the fact that it seems Ricky Nolasco wants a trade out of Miami, the Marlins seem adamant in not dealing the team's lone remaining member of the 2006 era. It is a nonsensical position for a team that has clearly punted on the 2013 season to keep a player who will not yield anything except via trade.

Still, there is no guarantee that the Angels would do a trade for just Nolasco, even if the Marlins include a significant portion of his remaining salary. Even with the logjam in the outfield, the Angels have to know a little about Bourjos's exceptional value on defense, so it is unlikely they will trade four years of team control of a league average player for one season of Nolasco. If the Marlins have to add any more players to the deal, it would be in the form of prospects, and then the price of such a trade becomes more questionable. The Marlins have outfield depth in the minors and would continue to have future depth at the position if they acquire Bourjos, so look for the Marlins to dangle an additional outfielder for Bourjos's services, if they were so inclined.

But Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald says that the Fish are indeed less inclined to pursue Bourjos.

Source: #marlins "not real interested" in Bourjos. Preference would be better-hitting OF.

— clarkspencer (@clarkspencer) December 18, 2012

The Marlins are apparently still looking for that so-called power bat to slot with Giancarlo Stanton, and thus they are less interested in the meek-hitting Bourjos, who is a career .247/.301/.402 (.308 wOBA) hitter. To a degree, this is understandable, as the Marlins are likely better at evaluating offense than defense. But the idea that the Marlins are, once again, preferring to emphasize offense and hitting over fielding is frustrating and indicative of the hypocrisy of their yearly "pitching and defense" talk during the offseason. Not targeting Bourjos and instead chasing a tougher, better-hitting target like Mark Trumbo would show just how little the Fish care about defense, even if their spacious park actually necessitates good defenders.

This is still something of a developing situation, and I have no doubt that the Marlins and Angels will likely discuss this a few more times before the offseason ends or one of the three extraneous outfielders the Angels have are sent away. But I maintain my stance that pursuing Bourjos, if a trade involves Nolasco and perhaps one of the team's numerous B-prospects, would be worth the price.

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Expansion Trivia

Today’s Trivia contest is brought to you by the Lil’ Teammates- very cool little[...]

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http://blog.lovemyteam.com/2012/12/18/expansion-trivia/

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Did You Know

Cecil Fielder is the only player in the majors since Babe Ruth to lead the sport in RBI for three consecutive seasons.  From 1990-1992, Fielder was the King.  In 1990, he collected 132, in 1991 he had 133, and in 1992 … Continue reading →

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http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2012/12/18/did-you-know-369/

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Listen: I join IIATMSs podcast On The Money to
talk Dickey, the Yankees and the AL East

[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2012/12/listen-i-join-iiatmss-podcast-on-the-money-
to-talk-dickey-the-yankees-and-the-al-east/

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Podcast: TCB Astros Afterburners Podcast - Carlos
Pena Signs With The Astros

Podcast Starts at 8:05 PM CT

Hosts: Tim De Block, David Coleman and Sean Feist

Houston Astros Discussion: Carlos Pena signed to be the Astros designated hitter/first basemen

The Astros on Monday signed Carlos Pena to a $2.9 million plus $1.4 million in performance based incentives. From the comments earlier today it looks as if there is a wide range of fan reaction from boo to yay and some mehs in between.

Let us know what you think in the comments below and as always ask us your questions and we'll try to get them answered on air.

The archived show can be found at: http://www.mixlr.com/crawfishboxes/showreel

Intro music by Alan Read.

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[RSS Feed]

If you have any comments or questions in regards to the podcast you can email the show at SBN.crawfishboxes@gmail.com. If you have a question please be sure to include your name and where you're from. Also big thanks to those of you that have rated us on iTunes we really appreciate the feedback.

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And not just that Vance Worley never mistook
Chase Utley and Ryan Howard for his own personal pinata

It appears that the Phillies have reorganized their rotation in recent weeks, outing 25-year-old-righty Vance Worley and inning 28-year-old leftyRead the Rest...

Read The Full Article:
http://www.philliesflow.com/2012/12/18/and-not-just-that-vance-worley-never-misto
ok-chase-utley-and-ryan-howard-for-his-own-personal-pinata/

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