This Week In Ex-Twins

post from The WGOM on 17 December 2009 09:33:42 AM. © The WGOM

Recent transactions involving former Minnesota Twins players:

Arizona agrees to terms with Augie Ojeda on a one-year contract.Baltimore declines to offer a contract to Brian Bass.Baltimore signs Frank Mata.Baltimore signs Chad Moeller.Boston agrees to terms with Boof Bonser on a one-year contract.Boston signs Darnell McDonald.Cincinnati signs Alexander Smit.Cincinnati signs Kevin West.Houston signs Alex Romero.Kansas City agrees [...]

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Book Review, Astros Style: Evaluating Baseball's
Managers

post from The Crawfish Boxes on 17 December 2009 09:29:00 AM. © The Crawfish Boxes

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - ASSOCIATED PRESS

Garner is one of five managers of the Astros in Chris Jaffe's new book.

Browse more photos »

I have linked to his website before discussing a new way to analyze managers, but Chris Jaffe will soon publish a book based on years of work called Evaluating Baseball's Managers 1876-2008. Chris recently provided me with a couple of excerpts about Houston's five managers that fit the criteria for his book.

You might know Jaffe from his writings over at The Hardball Times. He's spent much of the past year and a half putting together the most comprehesive book on managers that I've ever seen. By our own admittedly shorter conversations about what is important about a manager, it's clear that there is definite interest about this topic around here.

After the jump, I'll give you my impressions on the book's content and conclusions about Leo Durocher, Bill Virdon, Jimy Williams, Art Howe and Phil Garner.

First off, Jaffe sets his book out in part as a reference and in part as pure analysis. Jaffe focuses on the manager as a mover of men, not on the strategy. His book is based on a database set up by SABR member Phil Birnbaum. The full explanation can be found at his blog's FAQ page, but suffice it to say, the database came up with which teams were 'lucky' and which were not. Jaffe took this and ran with it, thinking that the manager influenced luck more than anything. (sound familiar, Cecil Cooper fans?).

I was surprised how many questions this book tended to answer. Better yet, I'm surprised how many questions it answered that I didn't even know I had. For instance, in the section on Bill Virdon, Jaffe talks about how little value Virdon got out of his bullpens. In fact, Virdon got the least value out of his 'pen than any manager in the database. Why is this relevant? Not only is Virdon the Astros' winningest manager in history, it also explains why only three pitchers have more than 100 saves with Houston and how six of the team's top 10 career save leaders played after Virdon left the team.

Now, was this something I had thought about in the past 10 years? Not really. I do remember thinking about how odd it was that BIlly Wagner so easily passed franchise leader Dave Smith as the new leader back in the late 90's, but I didn't get past that wondering. That the Astros didn't have a real closer for most of the club's existence was more a product of the era, right?

Another great note on Phil Garner talked about his reliance on defense and for balls in play. Apparently, Garner scored high on both the offensive and defensive balls in play lists, using good defense to gobble up all those hits and wearing pitchers down with the same. Of course, the downside of this and Garner's eventual undoing is the home run.

Garner's home run differential was the fifth-worst in history. Again, answering questions I didn't even think about before I read this. Garner's tendencies also revealed just as much about the best parts of his time with the Astros as his failures. Good defensive team that put the ball in play (as Garner's did) means that over the course of a season their luck will balance out. This created the great situations with the 2004 and 2005 comebacks while also setting up those late inning home runs to guys like Pujols and Podsednik. Garner as manager isn't the only reason the Astros lost the World Series but after reading Jaffe's breakdown you can certainly see why he was part of the problem.

What Jaffe does with all these guys is highlight why they were good or why they weren't successful. He does an excellent job of it, providing stats to back it up in each manager's capsule, but also backing it up with solid analysis. Bullpen usage, hitting for power, walks, and more are shown as trends for each manager as Jaffe does a good job of describing what kind of team each guy oversaw. It's exactly what history buffs would want and provides the kind of source material that analysts will be using for years. We discussed what makes a good manager and how much influence they really have on a team. I think reading this book will give us a better understanding of how to view Brad Mills and all future Houston managers.

If you're still interested in the book, you can pre-order it here before its release next spring.

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http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/17/1199194/book-review-astros-style

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Trade Talk For Uggla Heating Up

post from The Giants Baseball Blog- A San Francisco Giants Blog and Fan Website on 17 December 2009 09:28:00 AM. © The Giants Baseball Blog- A San Francisco Giants Blog and Fan Website

According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, and MLB Trade Rumors, the Giants and the Marlins appear to be getting more serious in their discussions about Dan Uggla. There have been some names exchanged by each team and things could be getting closer to being completed.

What makes me think that trade talks are actually making progress is that someone from Miami is reporting it, rather then just speculation from baseball writers on the Internet. Still, it doesn't mean that the Giants are going to end up with Dan Uggla, but it does mean that it's becoming more of a possibility. Apparently the Marlins and Giants have discussed Jonathan Sanchez, Clayton Tanner and one other mid-level pitching prospect, but I have a hard time seeing the Giants part with Jonathan Sanchez, who's still under team control for 3 more years and is only getting better each season (4.24 era, 177 k's, 1.37 WHIP, .221 BAA in 163 IP). Sanchez really came into his own last year after throwing his no-hitter in mid-July. After the all-star break, he went 5-4 with a 3.83 era and 98 k's in 84 innings. All signs are pointing towards Sanchez really breaking out in 2010, and I think a 15-win, sub-4 era season is very realistic and I think he'll finally make it to the 200 inning plateau, which would mean big strikeout numbers. Uggla is a very nice, middle of the order presence, but he hit .242 last year and is hitting just .249 over his last 3 seasons. Not to mention, acquiring Uggla would force someone out of position, weakening the offense. As bad as the Giants need the 30 home run potential, I'd hate to see them deal away from their strength for a second basemen right now.

I would, however, be throwing packages at Florida that aren't headlined with Jonathan Sanchez. It looks like the Marlins have some interest in Clayton Tanner, and maybe the Giants could add Kevin Pucetas, who's major league ready now, and a guy like Kevin Frandsen, who could go in and start at second base for the Marlins and be under their control for a while on the cheap. There have been so many reports about the Marlins needing to get out from under Uggla's 7+ million dollar contract for 2010. Everyone knows the Marlins want to get rid of him, and because of it, they aren't going to get top value in return. And if that is indeed the case, I would think the Giants could pry him away from Florida without giving up too much. If they do figure out a reasonable deal for him, I would immediately look into other positional possibilities for Uggla. First base would be one position that might be an option. He has familiarity with the right side of the infield after all, and I think first base would be an easier transition for him than third base or out to left field. It would also allow Pablo Sandoval to stay at third, where he has more value to the Giants. I don't think Uggla is the savior the Giants are looking for on offense though, and although he'd be a big help, they'd still need another bat or two to really complete their offense. If the Giants can't get Uggla for a reasonable deal, then I'd turn my focus to Adam LaRoche, who I've kind of been pulling for Sabean to sign as the teams first basemen. His power and run production numbers are very similar to Uggla's, plus he plays a very good defensive first base and hits for more average than the sought-after second basemen.

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http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/2009/12/trade-talk-for-uggla-heating-up.ht
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A Very Special Festivus You Choose

post from The WGOM on 17 December 2009 09:12:53 AM. © The WGOM

With Festivus fast approaching, I wanted to find out who your favorite character from Seinfeld was (of the four main characters).

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

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http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/12/17/a-very-special-festivus-you-choose/

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Worth the Money

post from Beyond the Box Score on 17 December 2009 09:07:00 AM. © Beyond the Box Score

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP Matt Holliday promises to buy Ryan Franklin a razor if the Cardinals pay him $128M. (AP Photo/Tom[...]

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http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/12/17/1202544/worth-the-money

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Rookies to Look For: Wade Davis

post from The Baseball Opinion on 17 December 2009 09:05:47 AM. © The Baseball Opinion

This past fall Tampa fans were able to catch a glimpse of one of their better pitching prosects as Wade Davis toe'd the rubber in the majors for six starts. The righty went 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 36.1 innings for the Rays, striking out 36 hitters while[...]

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The doctor is in

post from Philliesflow.com on 17 December 2009 09:05:15 AM. © Philliesflow.com

Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are among the elite pitchers in baseball, but there’s no question that Halladay has had the better career to this point. Halladay is less than a year and a half older than Lee, but has thrown 850 more innings than Lee. His innings have been better, too, as [...]

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http://www.philliesflow.com/2009/12/17/the-doctor-is-in/

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Hal Says Yanks Ain't Done Yet

From Pete Caldera:

After the press conference to welcome Curtis Granderson to the Bronx, which featured appearances by Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia, Yankees co-owner Hal Steinbrenner suggested there?s more to come. ?I don?t believe we?re done yet,?? Steinbrenner said.

I certainly hope they're not done, especially with what Boston has done and it trying to do (Adrian Gonzalez). As I've said many times, the Yankees need a DH/left field, starting pitcher, and maybe a reliever.

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-done-yet.html

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Some People Just Love Misery

post from LADodgerTalk.com - Get Your Daily Dodger Juice, Dodger News and Dodger Rumors on 17 December 2009 08:40:00 AM. © LADodgerTalk.com - Get Your Daily Dodger Juice, Dodger News and Dodger Rumors

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http://www.ladodgertalk.com/2009/12/some-people-just-love-misery/

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Want to help me plan my baseball class Topics
and Links needed.

I teach at a small university, and this spring I'm going to be teaching a class on baseball. Here's the description I submitted this fall:Course Title: The Science of BaseballDescription: Perhaps no other sport relies as much on tradition, hearsay,[...]

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http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/12/17/1200459/want-to-help-me-plan-my-baseb
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