Your Projections Will Be Wrong (But Make Them
Anyway)

post from Talking Chop on 16 February 2011 10:02:47 PM. © Talking Chop

More photos » David J. Phillip - AP

Tommy Hanson didn't live up to TC's expectations in 2010... but maybe we were just a year early.

Since we at Talking Chop have now started projecting the 2011 performance of the Braves' rotation, I thought it would be enlightening to look back at the starting pitcher projections that the TC community made last year.

I encourage all of you to go to that link and review the comments quickly, especially if you are one of the people who made a projection. It's a bit scarring to see just how comically wrong some of us were--including me. Sure, I pegged Derek Lowe's final ERA exactly and came very close to predicting both Lowe's and Tim Hudson's final W-L records; I also came pretty close to nailing the strikeout totals for Tommy Hanson and Hudson... but boy, did I miss on a few other projections.

For instance, I had Hanson's W-L mark at 18-10, Kawakami's at 12-10, and Jurrjens' at 15-9; that's 45-29 combined. They actually went 18-27. Sure, wins and losses are a crapshoot. In fact, the only person who even came close to the top 5 starters' actual combined W-L record (51-48) was PWHjort, who used a random number generator to guess a combined 54-52. I was nearly as bad at projecting ERA, though, which should be a relatively straightforward task: I had JJ's era at 3.30 and KK's at 3.80 (they ended up at 4.64 and 4.85, respectively).

And here's the really crazy thing: by the standards of the TC populace, my projections were fairly conservative.

Now, some of you may be expecting me, after all of that, to bemoan the pointlessness of projections and the rose-tinted optimism of home-team fans. I won't do that, though. Projections will inevitably be wrong, but they aren't pointless--even when they're incredibly misguided. Similarly, fervent optimism can be useful, as long as the person wielding it is aware that he or she isn't fully objective.

Projections, first of all, are a fun exercise; fun has real value. Secondly, they get us thinking in a concrete way about what we expect for the future. For some of us, making these projections will lead to more in-depth thinking about these or other players, which can in turn lead to all sorts of interesting discoveries.

The most valuable part of projections comes not from projection itself, but from retrospection. By looking back at last year's projections, we can identify certain trends, and then attempt to explain why these trends exist. For instance, everyone vastly overestimated the Braves' initial rotation... but you know what? They were still one of the better rotations in the league for much of the year, and were good enough to get us to the playoffs. In other words, even when things don't go according to plan, they can still work out just as well if the people in charge know what they are doing. That should be comforting to all of us when the Braves hit their first rough patch of 2011 (which is inevitable).

Something else to keep in mind is when to bring out the rose-tinted glasses and when to leave them in the drawer. Every season brings with it overachievers and breakout stars (last year these included Hudson, Omar Infante, Jonny Venters, and Martin Prado) as well as underachievers and catastrophic failures (Jurrjens, Kawakami, Nate McLouth, Melky Cabrera). I think it would behoove all of us to pick a few breakout/rebound candidates each year; for these guys, don't be afraid to let your homerism hold sway. Sometimes, home team fans actually do see something in a player that impartial fans don't. Familiarity can lead to bias, but it can also lead to insight. The trick, of course, is to figure out which is which--but we'll never solve that problem if we don't try.

The flip side of this coin is that it would be a good idea for all of us to pick a few downside candidates as well. You will probably be wrong, but it's a good idea to at least think about what might make players have down years. It won't make you a bad fan or a hater (at least, as long as you have some reason why you pick a player other than "I hate the way he wears his hat" or something like that). Something--many things, really--will go wrong in 2011, even if the Braves win the World Series. Just think of a low projection as the obstacle that you think the Braves will overcome on the way to a glorious end.

What do you guys think?

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http://www.talkingchop.com/2011/2/16/1998214/your-projections-will-be-wrong-but-m
ake-them-anyway

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Working on a Semi-Irregular Post

post from Royalscentricity on 16 February 2011 09:03:33 PM. © Royalscentricity

but I swear I'm working on it. I got sidetracked writing this. The Royalscentricity entry should be finished tomorrow evening and up on Friday. Until then...

At AL Central In Focus, Corey Ettinger lays out the payroll situation in an easy-to-read format for the Royals going forward. As we all know the only money the Royals have guaranteed
The Royals are apparently interested in signing John Maine to a minor-league contract. I have to say there would be very little to complain about if they did, as it is low-risk, non-guaranteed contract that gives them a guy who has been a legitimate back-end-of-the-rotation starter at the Major League level if things go to hell in a hand-basket.
Keep an eye on Drunk Jays Fans tonight as their initial reaction to the 5-year, $65MM deal sums it up pretty well--"Holy shit, that's way too much." Add that to the prospect of having to look at Scott Podsednik, who was signed to a minor-league deal today, and it's a huge news day for Toronto. The Bautista post has been growing as I type this.
...And Jason Kendall has Craig Brown at Royals Authority (and everyone else, really) scared. Goddamn him (Kendall, not Brown).

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http://www.royalscentricity.com/2011/02/working-on-semi-irregular-post.html

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Pujols, Cardinals Fail To Come To An Agreement

post from The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on 16 February 2011 08:59:00 PM. © The Ghost of Moonlight Graham

Albertgeddon is officially underway in St. Louis. The St. Louis Cardinals and star 1B Albert Pujols failed to come to an agreement by 11:00 cst on Wednesday, which was the “deadline” set by Pujols. “While we are disappointed that we did not reach an agreement, we remain hopeful that Albert will finish his career in [...]

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http://theghostofmoonlightgraham.com/2011/02/17/pujols-cardinals-fail-to-come-to-
an-agreement/

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Latos signs baseballs with I hate SF (AP)

post from MLB News Blog on 16 February 2011 08:42:26 PM. © MLB News Blog

San Diego Padres pitcher Mat Latos is making it clear he’s no fan of San Francisco. A San Diego-area memorabilia store advertised three baseballs with Latos’ signature and the words “I hate SF” below. The balls sold for $1,100, with half going to the Major League Baseball Players Alumni Association.

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http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2011/02/17/latos-signs-baseballs-with-i-hate-sf-ap/

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"Is Pujols Worth $300 Million" Is the Wrong
Question

post from Beyond the Box Score on 16 February 2011 07:03:51 PM. © Beyond the Box Score

"Is Pujols Worth $300 Million?" Is the Wrong QuestionThis Neyer piece, which references a Dave Cameron piece, is one of many investigating how much Pujols is worth and how much his contract should/will be (and with whom).But I fear we're asking the[...]

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http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/2/16/1997890/is-pujols-worth-300-million-is
-the-wrong-question

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Milestone Time The 75th Game-Used Andre Dawson
Card Of My Collection!!!

post from 30-Year Old Cardboard on 16 February 2011 06:30:29 PM. © 30-Year Old Cardboard

Milestone Time – The 75th Game-Used Andre Dawson Card Of My Collection!!! I am on pace to reach a lot of collecting milestones within my Andre Dawson collection this year. Not only am I past the 800-different card mark, but … Continue reading →

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e-dawson-card-of-my-collection/

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Dodgers Dodge A Bullet As Scott Podsednik Sends
Himself To The Minors

post from 6-4-2 ? an Angels/Dodgers double play blog on 16 February 2011 06:03:49 PM. © 6-4-2 ? an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Aaron Gleeman reports that Scott Podsednik, who turned down a $2M/1-year deal with the Dodgers, has signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays. Oops.

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http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2011/02/dodgers-dodge-bullet-as-scott-podsednik.html

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Best Mike Francesa segment Ive ever heard

post from lenNY's Yankees - A Bronx Bombers Blog on 16 February 2011 06:03:16 PM. © lenNY's Yankees - A Bronx Bombers Blog

Rich in Hackensack is a Mets lover and he had a problem with Mike Francesa. This is how it went down. See below for my two favorite excerpts transcribed. Only 327 views at time of posting. What a shame. 2:22 Francesa: ?In what way, I?m giving[...]

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http://www.lennysyankees.com/2011/02/best-mike-francesa-segment-ive-ever.html

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Cashman on Joba: He's Heavier

From the AP:

The New York Yankees reliever reported for spring training visibly larger than last year. Cashman wouldn't give a direct answer when asked whether Chamberlain is in shape.

"He's heavier, I'll leave it at that," the general manager said Wednesday. "He works hard. He's a good kid. He's heavy."

...

Cashman declined to say whether Chamberlain arrived at camp above the team-suggested weight.

"What I'm concerned about is his performance," Girardi said. "Obviously, you want guys to be in the best shape they can be, but we'll make those calls as we move along. The bottom line is, he is going to be judged on how he pitches. Some guys can carry more weight and be successful."

...

"I thought he had a better year than his numbers indicated," Cashman said. "I know he's throwing good bullpens. I think we'll have a tremendous bullpen. He's one of the reasons for it."

Here's some visual evidence via Michael G. Baron:

And some more:

He claims it's just muscle from a jacked-up workout routine and that he feels great, but to me it just looks like he's fat.

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/SlidingIntoHome/~3/vWOxwM4MKEo/cashman-on-joba-hes
-little-fat.html

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The 50 Greatest Angels (21-30)

We are now at the point in the Orange County Register?s (OCR) 50 greatest Angels where there[...]

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http://truegrich.blogspot.com/2011/02/50-greatest-angels-21-30.html

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