Ever since Theo Epstein has taken over as the head of the Cubs baseball operations he's had one goal and that's to build the team properly, from the ground up. His first order of business was landing Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod, two extremely[...]
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Add to myYahoo!Dave Parker 1982 Donruss Diamond Kings You all know that I am not a really big fan of the Diamond Kings cards that Donruss issued. Yes, I agree that the artist is talented, it is just not the kind of … Continue reading →![]()
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Add to myYahoo!The Braves announced the following minor league players as the best at each level of the minor league system:
The biggest breakout player this year for the Braves -- besides Andrelton Simmons, who I suppose spent too much time in the Majors to qualify for this honor -- was Todd Cunningham. He hit .309/.364/.403 for Mississippi, in his first fully healthy season since joining the organization in the same draft as Simmons in 2010. Cunningham started off slow, especially in the extra-base department, but came on strong in the second half and quieted those who were skeptical of his ability. He will still need a year of triple-A, but sometime next season we could see him roaming the outfield for Atlanta.
J.R. Graham performed up to the high expectations that were set for him this year by the organization and prospect watchers all over baseball. He is arguably the Braves best pitching prospect after Julio Teheran. Graham will get the chance to conquer triple-A next year and could be ready in a hurry if he finds success at Gwinnett. He's a hard thrower, but he also has a feel for pitching that could be a valuable top of the rotation asset if all goes well.
The rest of the list reads like a top prospect list for Atlanta. Gilmartin and Cabrera will be in the top-10 prospects this year, and Schlosser and Moore should be in the top-20. Merejo is a young up-and-comer, while Gearrin seems to be cementing a role in the Atlanta bullpen.
Ahmed and Peraza and not far behind Simmons on the shortstop depth chart, and should be among the Braves top-10 prospects. After several years of the Braves system not producing any shortstops of note, they are now flush with talent at that position. Beckwith and Leonard represent decent power prospects in the Atlanta system while Franco and Camargo spearhead the next round of talented Latin players flowing through the system. Maybe one day Ernesto Mejia will find someone willing to give him a shot in the Majors.
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Add to myYahoo!ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) — Texas center fielder Josh Hamilton and third baseman Adrian Beltre are not in the starting lineup because of injuries.
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Earlier today, we talked about how the Miami Marlins were considering promoting Jose Fernandez in 2013 if he had a dominant campaign in Double-A next season. This mirrored the sort of promotion schedule that elite Marlins prospects like Josh Beckett and Giancarlo Stanton also received when they tore through the Double-A level.
But it also got me thinking about just how the Marlins have treated other pitching prospects in the past. The Fish have had only a few household, in-house draftees on the pitching side make it to the major leagues and stick for an extended period of time this decade. How have those players been treated, and how are they different from Fernandez in their performance?
To discuss this, let's look back at three prominent pitching prospects who were originally drafted by the Marlins and made their debuts with the organization.
Josh Johnson
Johnson is perhaps the most successful Marlins pitching prospect in team history, having gone on to pitch the third most number of innings among pitchers in Marlins history and having accrued the most Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in method of measure among pitchers in team history. Yet ironically, Johnson was the weakest of these three pitching prospects who will be mentioned, as he was only ranked once in Baseball America's Top 100 prospects and only once mentioned among the team's top ten prospects. Despite all of his major league success, Johnson was ranked as the 80th best prospect in baseball heading into 2006.
The reason for Johnson's lack of name recognition as a prospect was that he simply was never that good in the minors.As you can see from those numbers, Johnson never impressed statistically enough to justify a high ranking in terms of prospect lists. Unlike Fernandez, who romped through Low- and High-A with impressive, otherworldly figures, Johnson merely got by as around a league average pitcher at each level. Now granted, being league average when you are two years younger on average than the league is pretty good. However, combine that with his scouting report of mediocre stuff and you can see why there was never a whole lot of buzz behind the fourth-round draft pick of the 2002 draft.
Johnson's stock did go up following his Double-A season, and that is logical because his velocity had apparently increased and his slightly above-average performance in Double-A led to better reviews. Still, the Marlins watched Johnson finish out the season in Double-A rather than aggressively bring him up, instead only handing a cup of coffee in September after A.J. Burnett was kicked off the team. Johnson's stock rose, but it never went up high enough like Fernandez's has that it would warrant a midseson call-up.
Of the pitchers drafted highly in the 2002 draft, Olsen was always considered the better prospect. He was drafted in the second round and immediately got on the top 100 prospect lists with impressive numbers coming from a lefty starter.
One look at Olsen's numbers versus Johnson's and you can see why he was so highly touted. Those kind of strikeout rates from a left-handed starter are almost unheard of, and he kept it up consistently and indeed improved upon his strikeout marks as he climbed in levels. Aside from his stint in Greensboro in 2003, he never displayed major control concerns in terms of walk rate either.
If there was one clear example of dominant performance in the minors akin to Fernandez among these three pitchers, it would have been Olsen's. Olsen also received a 2005 cup of coffee in September, but he only pitched 80 2/3 innings in Double-A before presumably getting hurt. Entering 2006, he was the 34th ranked prospect in baseball, so he was about as well-respected as Jacob Turner is now. So he was never quite at Fernandez's level of recognition, but had the Marlins needed a starting pitcher, I would not have been surprised to see Olsen make the midseason jump in 2005.
Volstad was the highest pick among these three pitchers, having been drafted in the first round in 2005. Like the other two, he was a prep pitcher who had to work his way up the minors, but unlike those two, he actually did receive a midseason promotion.
Like Olsen before him, Volstad spent time in the Gulf Coast League before he began his first full season of professional baseball in Greensboro in Low-A. Unlike Olsen, he got an early promotion to Double-A. Also unlike Olsen, he never dominated statistically at any level despite showing great ERA numbers. While Johnson toiled as something of a league average pitcher in all categories, Volstad disguised himself by preventing runs via being stingy on homers while at the same time refusing to walk or strike out a hitter.
In retrospect, the signs had to be on the wall for a guy like Volstad. Again, he was young for each level, but he was never able to beat hitters with his stuff at any level other than short-season ball. Sure, there are always pitchers in the majors who get away with good control and few strikeouts, but those guys are usually decent or only a little below the average in terms of strikeouts when they are in the minors. In his last two seasons in Double-A, Volstad was not whiffing hitters at even a 15 percent rate, which had to raise alarms even as his control looked solid.
Nevertheless, the Marlins were impressed enough to bring him up to the big leagues, and he had a successful first season since his midseason jump. Of course, from there you know the rest of his horrid career in Florida. But unlike the case of Fernandez, Volstad never dominated at any time and yet still received a midseason promotion.
Availability the Determining Factor
Ultimately, the Marlins followed more or less a typical promotion progression for a pitching prospect considered among the best in baseball. In each case, the Fish allowed the pitcher to work through Low and High-A and some time in Double-A. In each case, no pitcher earned a true abbreviated stint in Double-A; even Volstad's promotion in 2008 came following a repeat season at the level after he had been brought up to Carolina in the middle of 2007. Each pitcher received at least 80 innings of work at the level before getting a call up to the majors.
The difference between the situation for Johnson and Olsen, who appeared more ready for big league action than Volstad? During their Double-A season in 2005, the Marlins had all five rotation spots filled, as the club was making their Wild Card run with A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, Jason Vargas, and Brian Moehler. Sure, a case could have been made to replace the eminently replaceable Moehler, but Olsen would have been the preferred choice and he was hurt. In 2008, on the other hand, Volstad entered a rotation anchored previously by Ricky Nolasco, Olsen, and a cavalcade of journeymen biding time for the returns of Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson. There was a spot available for Volstad, who had already done his time.
What about in 2013? Well, neither Wade LeBlanc nor Nathan Eovaldi have really stood out as firm choices at the back end of the rotation, and if they continue to struggle next season and the Marlins do not opt for a free agent option, there is a chance Fernandez may just take the role. But keep in mind that the Marlins have never done this to any one pitcher, as even Volstad received a full slate of Double-A games split into two season. If Fernandez has a season closer to par for Double-A, do not expect him to show up in the majors until September, as the Marlins did with Johnson and Olsen. Only if Fernandez dominates will he get a chance at the big show by age 21.
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Add to myYahoo!Monday we briefly looked at how close the playoff race was getting and I wrote that we[...]
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Add to myYahoo!DENVER (AP) — New York Mets pitcher R.A. Dickey is the winner of the 2012 Branch Rickey Award in recognition of his work distributing baseball equipment and medical supplies in Central and South America.
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Add to myYahoo!1993 HEADLINE: Paul Molitor Becomes Oldest MLB Player To Collect 100 RBI In Single Season On this day in 1993, future Hall of Famer Paul Molitor set a major league record by being the oldest player to reach the 100 … Continue reading →![]()
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