Yankees and Ichiro putting the finishing touches
on a 2-year, $12-$13 million deal

[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2012/12/yankees-and-ichiro-putting-the-finishing-to
uches-on-a-2-year-12-13-million-deal/

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Hall Of Fame Debate: Making The Case For Jack
Morris

Hall Of Fame Debate:  Making The Case For Jack Morris I will reserve my vote until the end of this post, but I thought that the best way to kick off this new series would be to take the guy … Continue reading →

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r-jack-morris/

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Josh Hamilton: Are the 2013 Angels better than
the 2012 Angels

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were a very good team in 2012.

In total, they were worth a 47.4 wins above replacement (FanGraphs), mainly because of their stellar offense and defense. Under FanGraphs' model, a replacement level team would win about ~43 games; thus, the Angels should have won about 90 games in 2012. They won 89.

For the rest of this piece, I'm going to have some fun with my less than accurate crystal ball and some running WAR totals.

Let's begin...

At the end of 2012, the Angels had a 90-win roster.

This off-season (or during last season) they lost:

• Dan Haren (1.8 fWAR)
• Zack Greinke (1.3 fWAR)
• Jordan Walden (0.5 fWAR)
• Hisanori Takahashi (0.2 fWAR)
• Ervin Santana (-0.9 fWAR)
• LaTroy Hawkins (-0.1 fWAR)
• Jason Isringhausen (-0.3 fWAR)
• Torii Hunter (5.3 fWAR)
• Bobby Abreu (-0.2 fWAR)
• Maicer Izturis (0.7 fWAR)

Those players were worth a total of 8.3 wins in 2012.

That is the number the Angels would need to make-up this off-season if they expect to get back to being a 90-win ballclub -- and to possibly miss out on the playoffs for the fourth straight season.

Running Tally: 82-win roster

Players they acquired:

• Ryan Madson (1.4 fWAR)*
• Sean Burnett (1.1 fWAR)
• Joe Blanton (2.4 fWAR)
• Tommy Hanson (1.0 fWAR)
• Josh Hamilton (4.4 fWAR)

*Madson's WAR total is a three year average of his value over 2009-11

In 2012 (sort of) these players combined to be worth 10.3 wins.

In theory, if 2013 was 2012 (which of course it is not) the Angels will be two wins better next season (91-92 win team) and most likely make the post-season.

Running Tally: 92-win roster.

The only problem is I'm making far too many assumptions with this analysis.

Critical Assumptions:

• All of players on the Angels roster will not improve or decline from their 2012 WAR totals
• The Angels will not trade Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo or Peter Bourjos before the season starts
• The Angels will be able to find 90 replacement-level innings to make-up for the loss of Greinke
• Hanson will be healthy enough to start 30+ games
• Madson will return to pitching at the same level he did before Tommy John surgery
• The addition of the Astros to the AL West and year-long interleague play won't affect the Angels at all

The first assumption is the largest and most ridiculous. Production from MLB players fluctuates all over the place year-to-year.

How many people possibly expect Mike Trout to be worth 10 wins, again in 2013?

Is Hamilton going to stay healthy enough to have 600+ plate appearances again?

Will C.J. Wilson find the strike zone and bounce back to his 2010-11 form?

Will Albert Pujols continue to decline, or will he bounce back after the worst season of his career?

Consider for a moment, a scenario where C.J. Wilson finds the zone and is worth 4.5 wins, while Pujols repeats his 2012 May-September production over a full season and is worth 6 wins. Hamilton keeps his health and duplicates his 2012 production, which allows Trout to "regress" to a 6-win player, while the variation in the rest of the roster's production (and health) evens out to be about the same.

Running Tally: 92-win roster.

The second, third and fourth assumptions work pretty well in tandem.

Los Angeles is in a similar scenario to where they were last season. They have seven OF/DH/1B type players, with only five starting spots to fill, making at least one of the players expendable. This is a good thing, because the Angels have a need for starting pitching.

Greinke threw 89.1 innings for the Angels in 2012 and was worth 1.8 wins, I assumed the Angels would be able to fill the gap in innings, but would only be able to do so by sacrificing the 1.8 wins.

Garrett Richards threw 71 replacement-level innings (mainly out of the bullpen) in 2012, and I don't find it too hard to believe that he could throw 160 replacement-level innings next season.

If Richards fills these innings, then where is starting pitching need?

There's some serious evidence, namely a large dip in velocity, floating around that Hanson is not a healthy pitcher.

Hanson was worth one-win over 174.2 innings (30 starts), in 2012.

If Hanson is able to stay healthy for half of the season (15 starts), the Angels would then need to find 15 starts and replace half-a-win of production to continue their current pace as a 92-win team.

This is where their excess OF/DH/1B could come into play.

Below is the 2012 fWAR total for their most tradeable assets:

• Bourjos: 1.9
• Trumbo: 2.4
• Morales: 1.8

There is a pretty large discrepancy in plate appearances between the three players, but suffice it to say that they were all similar in value to the Angels last season.

If Los Angeles were able to move one of them, the return would need to be at least a 2.5-3 win pitcher, which is certainly possible, but not exactly easy.

For the moment, let's assume that they are able to acquire a 3-win pitcher

Running Tally: 92-win roster.

Ryan Madson missed all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. The former Phillies reliever could prove to be a great pick-up for the Angels, and I projected him to be worth 1.4 wins based on his 2009-11 seasons.

Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece that compared Madson to another reliever who recently came back from Tommy John: Joe Nathan. Sullivan makes an interesting case about how the Angels should not be surprised if Madson isn't his old self right away,as with any player coming back from injury there is a good deal of uncertainty.

Madson could return as an All-Star, but he also could have forgotten how to pitch.

If the Madson deal turns out to be a dud, it's possible that the addition of Houston in the Angels' division and playing a few more games against the National League could be enough to offset a potential failure with Madson.

However, there is too much uncertainty surrounding this assumption to really know how much the new rule changes will affect the Angels win total.

What does the addition of Hamilton really mean?

The Angels just invested $125 million into a 32 year-old veteran. They did so, because of their current World Series-or-bust attitude. They believe that the addition of Hamilton could be enough to make this a World Series team. If the Angels win a World Series, it doesn't matter if the contract turns out to be an albatross.

My only issue with that idea?

You have to make some seriously bold critical assumptions to even find a scenario where the 2013 Angels are marginally better than last year's team, which failed to even reach the post-season.

All statistics come courtesy of FanGraphs

You can follow Glenn on twitter @Glenn_DuPaul

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Fergie Jenkins And His Fantastic 1966 Topps
Rookie Baseball Card

Fergie Jenkins And His Fantastic1966 Topps Rookie Baseball Card Some of the hobby’s greatest rookie cards came out of sets issued in the 1960′s. And many of them featured more than one player, with some even featuring as many as … Continue reading →

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Baseball America and the 2016 Miami Marlins
Lineup (Hopefully)!

Baseball America released its annual top 10 Miami Marlins prospects list just recently, and the names listed at the top were among the most expected names there. Naturally, Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich headlined the list, with Andrew Heaney, Jake Marisnick, and Marcell Ozuna rounding out the top five. Justin Nicolino and Adeiny Hechavarria also made the list as trade acquisitions.

One of the most interesting games to play whenever Baseball America releases this sort of list is the "how likely is their future lineup?" game. Every year since before the 2007 season, Baseball America puts up a future lineup three years down the line, and it is typically a mix of the players perceived as top prospects along with the guys who are expected to remain on the team by that time, barring no trades or other acquisitions. Often times, the expectations come out wildly incorrect, if only because that is the way prospect mining often turns out. As a result, it is interesting to see if a future lineup that they put up now is even likely in a few years.

Here is this year's lineup, projected for 2016.

PROJECTED 2016
LINEUPCatcherJ.T. Realmuto
First BaseLogan Morrison
Second BaseAvery Romero
Third BaseDerek Dietrich
ShortstopAdeiny Hechavarria
Left FieldChristian Yelich
Center FieldJake Marisnick
Right FieldGiancarlo Stanton
No. 1 StarterJose Fernandez
No. 2 StarterAndrew Heaney
No. 3 StarterJustin Nicolino
No. 4 StarterNathan Eovaldi
No. 5 StarterJacob Turner
CloserA.J. Ramos

This lineup actually would not surprise Marlins fans all that much, given the talent the team currently has and how obviously replaceable almost all of the players on the 2012 roster are. The Marlins traded a number of players with the distinct purpose of building this sort of roster in the future, and it would not surprise anyone if this is what the team ended up with in a few years' time.

How Likely?

On the question of how likely this roster is, we should look back to see how likely the roster post-fire sale was the last time the team sold off the major league squad. We recall how similar the 2012 fire sale was to the 2005 version, and given the situation from last time, how similar is the future 2009 lineup projected then to the 2016 lineup now?

Well, at the time, Baseball America had not begun the practice of making future projected lineups, but we can take a guess at what it might look like after the Marlins' various trades.

PROJECTED 2009
LINEUPCatcherBrett HayesFirst BaseMike JacobsSecond BaseRobert AndinoThird BaseMiguel CabreraShortstopHanley RamirezLeft FieldJosh WillinghamCenter FieldJeremy HermidaRight FieldKris HarveyNo. 1 StarterDontrelle WillisNo. 2 StarterScott OlsenNo. 3 StarterAnibal SanchezNo. 4 StarterJosh JohnsonNo. 5 StarterChris VolstadCloserTaylor Tankersley

This list is not all that different from what was listed in the 2010 future lineup from the 2007 top ten list. There are some liberties with this list, particularly in listing Hermida as a future center fielder, but it is not a far stretch to imagine that this combination of players would have been considered the future of the Marlins in 2009.

How would this lineup have actually fared versus what truly happened with the 2009 Fish? Well, the Marlins found players with which to plug the holes in the outfield, particularly in center field, where the team ran Cody Ross for a number of seasons. The Marlins opened up 2009 with Cameron Maybin in that spot as well, pushing Ross to left field following the trade of Josh Willingham. The Fish also traded Cabrera a year before, not unlike what is likely to happen to Giancarlo Stanton in a few seasons' time. But the positions of first base, shortstop, one of the outfield spots, and most of the rotation would have basically been spot on; Olsen, Sanchez, Johnson, and Volstad all made the Opening Day roster as starting pitchers, with Ricky Nolasco filling the final position.

How do the 2016 projected Marlins stack up given what is already here? Just like our imaginary projected 2009 lineup, many of the players on the list are new to the Fish or to the majors, or in many cases new to both. In the 2009 list, only Willis and Cabrera had decent major league service time; in the 2016 list, only Stanton and Logan Morrison do. The difference is that the players on the 2016 list are more likely to start in the majors in 2014 or 2015, while the players on the Marlins' 2009 list started in that 2006 season, mostly because the team had a deep minor league system and no other choice. This makes the 2016 crew a little less likely to make the majors as a group, if only because any number of them could bust having not yet been deemed major-league ready.

Still, both lists look fairly similar, and the results from 2006 make it likely that most of the projected lineup should make it all the way to 2016. The risky players are Stanton, who will almost certainly be traded, and Avery Romero and Andrew Heaney, who have yet to spend significant time in full-season ball. Due to a lack of choices, the Marlins are likely to fill their roster up with these players in the future.

How Good Is It?

How effective this 2016 lineup will be is a bigger question mark. The Marlins have to be confident in Fernandez and Yelich, as those two are highly regarded. The team feels strongly enough about Hechavarria to start him now, and his defense is already at a level good enough to keep him around as an Alex Gonzalez-type of shortstop. Beyond those guys, however, there are still question marks. Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob Turner have problems to fix in the majors. Marisnick remains a mystery as to whether he can solve his issues at the plate with his vast tools.

If I had to guess, Hechavarria, Yelich, Fernandez, Nicolino, and Turner are the best bets for relative success by 2016, just on the basis of their high floors. Turner and Nicolino were considered as high-floor control pitchers with decent, but still questionable stuff. Hechavarria has his defense on which to fall back. Yelich and Fernandez appear at the moment to be ready for stardom. Those six players have the best shot at being quality major leaguers, but the others are both unproven now and have major questions going forward.

As expected, it is a crapshoot to try and project three years down the line. Baseball America gives a valiant effort, but questions still linger about the Marlins of the distant future.

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Andres Torres Returns

After doing most of their heavy lifting this offseason by re-signing Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, the Giants made the first move towards filling out their roster by bringing Andres Torres back on a one-year deal.

This is a solid move to add some depth to the bench and get more speed onto the roster, and it's one I saw coming from a mile away. Torres was non-tendered by New York last month and became a free agent at a time when the Giants had only Hunter Pence and Gregor Blanco assured to return, so I'm sure the discussions with Torres have been ongoing for a while now. He really hasn't done much since his breakout year in 2010 when he was a catalyst during the Giants' first World Series run, but he also hasn't been fully healthy for much of the past two seasons. I was hoping the Giants would find that right-handed, power hitting corner outfielder they were looking for, but apparently in this market, even guys like Scott Hairston are out of their price range. That being said, Torres is not a bad fallback option at all and should be more than capable as the fourth outfielder and may even give Blanco a run for playing time in left field if he gets hot. The Giants like Torres' switch hitting abilities, his solid defense and his speed on the base paths, so if they aren't able to add another outfielder for depth between now and February, they have to feel pretty good with their depth chart heading into 2013.

After the signing of Torres, it does fill out another spot on the prospective 25-man roster the Giants will head into next season with, but there are still three spots that are are still up in the air. They have an opening in the bullpen still with Guillermo Mota's exit, and also have to be looking into backup infielders. Heck, they could even take on another outfielder if they found the right fit. If the season started tomorrow, the only guys assured a bench spot would be Hector Sanchez, Joaquin Arias and Torres. Assuming they carry a 12-man pitching staff into the season, that leaves two openings. Those two spots could come down to in-house candidates like Roger Kieschnick and Francisco Peguero, or if they want to dip into free agency to find some veteran help, that could still be an option. You also have to figure that Buster Posey will continue to see more and more time at first base as the Giants try to keep him fresh and in the lineup, which means Brandon Belt could start seeing some more of the outfield in 2013. You can definitely start to see things fall into place for the Giants, who didn't want to shake things up too much from their 2012 squad, and have succeeded in doing so. Again, in a perfect world, I'd like to see another right-handed bopper added, either a first basemen or corner outfielder, and I don't think Sabean is quite done yet.

As far as the Brian Wilson saga, there really isn't much new on that front, although the deeper Wilson goes into the offseason without finding a new home, makes me believe he will indeed be back with the Giants in 2013. He wants to close, but no team will sign him to be their main closer for next season, it's just not logical. His best bet is to take a one-year deal with a team like the Giants who know what he can do and would have no problem inserting him back into that role if he proves he's ready. If you thought last years bullpen was tough, just imagine all those guys, plus a healthy Wilson pitching in! It makes too much sense for both parties for him to return.

Read The Full Article:
http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/andres-torres-returns.html

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Fergie Jenkins Has One Of The Best Signatures In
Baseball!!!

Fergie Jenkins Has One Of The Best Signatures In Baseball!!! I am an autograph collector.  And while still not an expert on the topic, I would hope that people value my opinion on the matter since they know what I … Continue reading →

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XX 1090am Intangibles Interview

Last night, I was a guest on Coach John Kentera’s talk show on XX 1090 am, San Diego’s Sports Talk leader.  Coach Kentera has coached baseball at the high school and college level and he’s been passionate about covering amateur sports in San Diego for as long as I can remember.  I was impressed with [...]

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Fergie Jenkins And The Hall Of Fame Class Of 1991

Fergie Jenkins And The Hall Of Fame Class Of 1991 Fergie Jenkins was elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1991.  Sitting alongside Rod Carew and Gaylord Perry, Jenkins was a very proud man as he was the first … Continue reading →

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Yankees sign catcher Bobby Wilson

[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2012/12/yankees-sign-catcher-bobby-wilson/

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