Wandy Wandy

post from Disastros on 10 March 2010 11:36:01 PM. © Disastros

Wandy got rocked today.I was sad, but then I remembered that my last post – just yesterday – was titled, “Matsui Goes Yard Off Santana.”Smell it – it’s springtime!

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Danny Darwin

post from My First Cards on 10 March 2010 11:10:00 PM. © My First Cards

Danny Darwin was almost traded to Pittsburgh with Al Oliver before the season, for Dave Parker, but[...]

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Mike Aviles Makes Me Smile

post from Royals Review on 10 March 2010 11:04:13 PM. © Royals Review

Yea, yea, Zack was Zack again. But damn, Mike Aviles went 2-3 today. I had no idea he'd be playing this early. So that is very cool. Its nice to feel encouraged about something, especially when its unexpected.

There's a non-horrible infield waiting for the Royals, when and if Aviles can return to full health. They've got to take off their stupid glasses and actually see it, but its there.

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http://www.royalsreview.com/2010/3/10/1367415/mike-aviles-makes-me-smile

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Potential Major League Baseball Realignment Plan
For The Birds

post from The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on 10 March 2010 10:34:05 PM. © The Ghost of Moonlight Graham

When I first heard about Bud Selig’s “Study Group” back in December, I was all for it. I loved the idea of the some of the brightest minds in the game getting together trying to make on-field improvements to America’s Pastime.However, if this radical realignment plan is what they are coming up with, then they [...]

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ealignment-plan-for-the-birds/

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Damon On His Old Team and His New Team

post from Sliding Into Home: A Yankees Blog on 10 March 2010 09:19:00 PM. © Sliding Into Home: A Yankees Blog

(AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Just after signing with the Tigers, Johnny Damon was saying some things about how the Yankees handled their end of the deal and came off a little bit...uhhhh....douchey. Today, with the Yankees in Lakeland to face the Tigers, Damon spoke much more kindly about his former team. Here's the quotes from Chris Girandola and the AP:

"I got to see a whole bunch of them and, secretly, they all miss me,"...

"We definitely are on good terms; they're just doing things the way they want to and I have to do it my way. It's a little different for some people, but when it's all said and done, at least I can say I did it the right way also."

"Of course I would have loved to have helped to win another championship with them," Damon said of the Yankees. "New York is a great franchise, and I'm happy to have won a championship while there. I'm going to try to do everything I can now to help these guys win one."

Damon also spoke about how going to the Tigers was a smooth transition for him, and the difference between New York and Detroit.

"The pressure to win [in Detroit] is different, obviously," Damon said. "Going from Boston to New York, it was already ingrained. There was no way I was going to wear my ring [from winning a World Series with the Red Sox] while in New York. That would have been tough to do that."

Is he saying he's going to wear his Yankees championship ring in Detroit?

He did also mention once again that he knew he wanted to end up a Tiger. But we all know that what he's actually saying is since he couldn't get $8 million a year from the Yanks, his first choice became the Tigers.

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Nomar Garciaparra Retires

post from The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on 10 March 2010 09:13:15 PM. © The Ghost of Moonlight Graham

Okay, so I am fully prepared to date myself with this post. Anytime you can talk about a player who was a big part of your college years and that was in the mid-90’s, you are pretty much telling everyone how old you are.But in this case, I am more than happy to date myself [...]

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Just how improved will the Diamondbacks be in
2010

post from Purple Row on 10 March 2010 09:03:33 PM. © Purple Row

Chris Carlson - AP

There's a lot riding on that arm.

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The chic pick for most improved NL team in 2010 is almost unanimous - Arizona. After all, they practically lost their 2008 Ace and cleanup hitter to injury for the entirety of last season. They added depth to their rotation and bullpen and could get some notable turnarounds from young hitters.

In this article, I'll outline the roster locks, Spring Training Battles and after the jump, analyze each position in more detail, with a little different format than last time.

Roster Additions: Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Adam LaRoche, Kelly Johnson, Aaron Heilman, Bob Howry, Zach Kroenke

Roster Subtractions: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Eric Byrnes, Doug Davis, Yusmeiro Petit, Jon Rauch, Scott Schoeneweis

Roster Locks

Rotation: Dan Haren, Brandon Webb (if healthy), Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy

Bullpen: Chad Qualls, Aaron Heilman, Bob Howry, Clay Zavada, Juan Gutierrez

Infield: Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Roberts, Augie Ojeda, Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder

Outfield: Justin Upton, Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra

Roster Battles

Fifth Starter: Billy Buckner had the most experience starting of any candidates and is the favorite heading into Spring Training. Bryan Augenstein, Kevin Mulvey and Rodrigo Lopez will more than likely get a start sooner or later if they don't start the team there. Pick: Buckner

Two Bullpen Spots: Zach Kroenke is all but assured of being in the bullpen after being a Rule 5 draft choice (though the D-Backs scrapped that plan with James Skelton early last year). If Kroenke doesn't make the team, Zavada would be pushed into a LOOGY role. Blaine Boyer has the edge for long man, with Leo Rosales, Esmerling Vazquez and to lesser degrees the losers of the fifth starter battle in contention. Picks: Kroenke and Boyer

Bench: There was talk that Augie Ojeda would be traded with the acquisition of Kelly Johnson, but it appears he'll stick around. All AJ Hinch will need to decide is his 25th man. With Parra as the lone outfielder on the bench, that might lead to an outfielder, though Ryan Roberts' ability to play OF allows for an infielder or relief pitcher as well. Twenty-five year old outfielder Cole Gillespie would seem like a logical choice, though 31-year-old 1B/LF Jeff Bailey seems to have a chance as well. Pick: Gillespie

Offense

Below, I have attempted to quantify where Arizona will improve/decline. To do this, I took CHONE projections for the projected starters and distributed value from bench players across positions they would play. This ignores injuries and other players, but CHONE was chosen in part due to generosity in projected playing time to balance that out. There will still be more ABs than can be taken, but I chose to choose the most optimistic approach for Arizona to see what the damage is. To compare how they changed, I used the positional WAR I calculated this offseason.

First Base

Adam LaRoche was brought in this offseason to refurbish a completely broken first base position. No matter what he produces, he'll far outproduce the -0.90 WAR Arizona got last season. In fact, LaRoche projects to 2.0 WAR from CHONE, and with Ryan Roberts getting some of his ABs there, the D-Backs figure to get about 2.5 WAR from the first base position. ADDED value for 2010: +3.4 Wins

The rest follws after the jump.

Second Base

Despite not having a full-year starter in 2009, Arizona was actually very solid at second last year. Rusty Ryal, Ryan Roberts, Augie Ojeda and Felipe Lopez were all very strong contributors. Still, Josh Byrnes went out of the organization to bring in Kelly Johnson. The sum of Johnson's CHONE projection with partials from Roberts and Ojeda yields 3.7 WAR, far worse than the 5.97 WAR they got last season. LOST value for 2010: -2.25 Wins

Third Base

Mark Reynolds split some time between third and first base last year due to the black hole A.J. Hinch had at first, but with the arrival of LaRoche, Reynolds will be a constant starter at third this year. CHONE projects a small dip in value from Special K after his tremendous season in 2009. LOST value for 2010: -0.3 Wins

Shortstop

One of Arizona's more disappointing hitters last year was Stephen Drew, who was considered better than Troy Tulowitzki by some less than 12 months ago. Weird. Drew is one reason to suspect Arizona can turn around, especially if he can capture his 2008 second half. I calculated the shortstops from Phoenix to have about 2.5 WAR in value last year. With Drew's CHONE projection and partial value from Augie Ojeda, they project to 3.4 WAR in 2010. ADDED value for 2010: +0.9 Wins

Catcher

Miguel Montero will return as the starter and cleanup hitter after swiping Chris Snyder's job last season. The increased playing time in 2010 for the superior hitting Montero over Snyder figures to add a little bit of value. However, CHONE sees nearly a full WAR dip in production from Montero (due mostly to a nonsensical drop in playing time). Additionally, Snyder could be dealt at some point, meaning John Hester would be the backup. ADDED value for 2010: +0.0 Wins

Left Field

After nearly all of 2009 from Valley Fever, Conor Jackson is primed for a big return in 2010. He has not appeared rusty in Spring Training so far, but he does have only one MLB home run since the end of July 2008, but he's projected for 1.8 WAR in 2010. Adding in a little extra value from Cole Gillespie and Gerardo Parra, and CHONE's projections come out about 2.9 WAR, about 0.8 WAR more than Arizona got from Byrnes, Parra and Sons last year. ADDED value for 2010: +0.8 Wins

Center Field

Chris Young falls into Stephen Drew's category, but far more. The former leadoff hitter found himself in AAA last year after spending most of the season hitting under .200. Led by his apalling season, Arizona was over a win below replacement in 2009, but CHONE is buying a bit of a comeback from Young. Add in some AB's from Gillespie and Parra, and the projection looks good for Arizona. ADDED value for 2010: +3.0 WINS

Right Field

Justin Upton is 22 and just signed a contract for over $50million after a bit of a breakout year last season. Predictably, CHONE predicts some regression from Punkton. Even adding value from the bench, Arizona projects to lose a little off the their pace from last season. LOST value for 2010: -0.67 Wins

Total Value GAINED from offense: about 5.0 Wins over 2009

Pitching

CHONE does not have WAR projections posted for pitchers. Instead, I have compared pitchers' Fangraphs value in 2009 to "Fans" projections from Fangraphs. In some cases, the Fans projections (IP, FIP, etc) are more conservative than CHONE, sometimes more liberal. For this cursory look, I'm assuming that pretty much cancels out.

Rotation

Ace - Dan Haren

Dan Haren posted 6.1 WAR in 2009, even with a small stumble from his ridiculous first half. The 29-year-old is certainly capable of more as his 2008 can attest, but Fans have predicted a 6.0 WAR. It should be noted that CHONE predicts a higher FIP and less IP, so CHONE's WAR would actually be less than 6.0. LOST value for 2010: -0.25 Wins

#2 - Brandon Webb

Webb is reason #1 cited for a D-Backs turnaround, but he may not even be healthy enough to be in the Opening Day rotation. Fans on Fangraphs were optimistic for Webb, predicting 179 IP, far more than CHONE's 128 IP. If he's in the upper area of that range, he's about a 4.0 WAR pitcher. If he's in the lower, he's about 3.0 WAR. As we have discussed here on PR, Arizona needs Webb to be a #2 pitcher even more than Colorado needs Jeff Francis to be a four. Replacing Webb with Kevin Mulvey is a bigger drop than Francis to Greg Smith. In the 2-spot of the rotation in 2009, Max Scherzer posted a 3.2 WAR, so Webb could be anything but a -0.2 to +0.8 improvement over last season. Let's be nice to the Snakes and assume the worst for the NL West. ADDED value for 2010: +0.8 Wins

#3 - Edwin Jackson

Jackson is getting some perhaps overly optimistic love in some channels too after a breakout season in 2009 and move to the NL. Fangraphs readers have predicted about a 2.4 WAR season from Jackson in 2010, right about in line with CHONE but over a win less than his value in 2009. Still, that's better than the 1.7 WAR season Doug Davis provided in the same role last year. ADDED value for 2010: +0.7 Wins

#4 - Ian Kennedy

Kennedy has never had more than nine starts in a MLB season, but he is being counted on at the back end of the rotation, especially if Webb is down for significant time. Fangraphs readers predict 1.6 WAR and just 117 IP. That jumps to about 2.4 WAR with a full season of innings, which is about as optimistic as I would be comfortable projecting, even if he's capable of more. Jon Garland's season in 2009? 2.4 WAR. ADDED value for 2010: +0.0 Wins

#5 - Billy Buckner/Bryan Augenstein/Kevin Mulvey

The position in the rotation was held mostly by Buckner and Yusmeiro Petit last season, worth about 1.0 WAR. Using Fan projections, the above trio is worth about 1.5 WAR in 2010. ADDED value for 2010: +0.5 Wins

Total Value GAINED from rotation: about 1.75 Wins over 2009

Bullpen

There are no readily available projections for relief pitchers, but even if there were, the volatility of a MLB bullpen's personnel makes it impossible to project. They were middle of the pack last year, so there's not any grounds to superficially assume regression in either direction. They essentially will swap out Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vazquez and Leo Rosales in favor of Bob Howry, Aaron Heilman and Zach Kroenke, which appears on paper to be an improvement.

Conclusion

Okay, I know this is doing open heart surgery with a butter knife if ever there was such a thing. There is certainly room for improvement above projections from some, but I think these predictions are certainly on the optimistic side of things. It assumes no injures, no personnel flux, at times includes more ABs than are possible for a given position, and assumes Kennedy and Webb stick to their workload potential.

Assuming marginal improvement from the bullpen, this roster looks to be about 7.0 wins better than they were in 2009. That equates to 77 wins. Or - if you utilize their 2009 Pythagorean, an 82-80 record. So - are you scared of the Diamondbacks?

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http://www.purplerow.com/2010/3/10/1365471/just-how-improved-will-the

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Nady Might Not Be at Full Strength Until June

Xavier Nady made his spring debut on Wednesday as the Cubs' DH. Nady finished the game 1-for-2 with a walk. The Cubs' projected fourth outfielder can hit but might not be able to throw at full strength until June. Nady is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery.

According to a report from ESPN Chicago, Xavier Nady "will still be able to play with his arm at less than 100 percent." Nady is currently throwing at 120 feet.

The Cubs will "simply have to make some defensive adjustments, moving the cutoff men back to compensate" according to a report from Cubs.com.

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Zambrano Zlammed in Second Spring Start - Cubs 1
Giants 5

Game Six - Cubs 1 Giants 5
WP - Jonathan Sanchez (1-0) LP - Carlos Zambrano (0-1) Save - None

Lou Piniella's crew lost their second game in a row after a bad third inning from Carlos Zambrano on Wednesday afternoon. Zambrano breezed through his first two innings of work. He retired all six of the seven batters he faced on just 14 pitches, 11 for strikes ... then the third inning happened.

Zambrano allowed the first three Giants hitters to reach in the third. Aaron Rowand loaded the bases with a bloop single to right on the ninth pitch of the at bat. Zambrano then hit Eugenio Velez to force in the first run of the game.

With the bases loaded and no outs, Pablo Sandoval hit a 2-0 pitch from Zambrano over the wall in right. Sandoval's grand slam capped the five-run third inning.

The Giants batted around against Zambrano in the third but Z was able to induce a 6-4-3 double play off the bat of Juan Uribe to end the inning.

In three innings, Carlos Zambrano allowed five runs on six hits with a walk, a strikeout and a hit a batter.

The Cubs' pen did not allow the Giants to tack on over the final six innings.

The Cubs out-hit the Giants, 9-7, but managed just one run. Aramis Ramirez drove in pinch runner Micah Hoffpauir with a double in the fourth.

With the loss the Cubs slipped to .500 on the spring with three wins and three losses.