Sunday Rockpile: Debunking some of the four man
rotation myths

post from Purple Row on 09 September 2012 11:01:36 AM. © Purple Row

Sep 07, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Colorado Rockies pitcher Carlos Torres (59) delivers to the plate during the seventh inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Rockies 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE

Troy Renck goes after the four man rotation again in a story today. Leaving aside the fact that the Rockies haven't really had a four man rotation for a couple of weeks now, I do want to quibble with a few of the points he brings up. I think that there are some valid concerns that have been expressed about the system, I just don't think that a lot of what Renck brings up here qualifies.

First, I do like that he distinguishes that the period we'd be talking about doesn't include the post-roster expansion month of September, sometimes the complaints have been that this can't work over baseball's full 162 game schedule, but it's really the 130 or so games that come during the 25 man roster period that are at issue. After that, there will be enough reserves on hand to make almost any pitcher use experiment feasible.

At any rate, let me tackle some of Renck's other concerns:

However, their appearances get locked in, meaning that Josh Roenicke gets burned on a night when the team doesn't have a great chance to win.

Renck's now speaking of the piggyback relievers in the same hallowed way some baseball people talk about closers. I don't know when Josh Roenicke became Mariano Rivera, or at least Rafael Betancourt, but this argument seems silly. The answer would be tough cookies. Suck it up and deal. If you have eight strong bullpen arms, which is what you want ideally, then there are going to be some times when good pitchers get burned in losing causes. The issue in this case wouldn't be the bullpen use or "wasting" Roenicke at all, but the quality of the starter going before him, and that remains the Rockies biggest question mark heading into the off season, not whether this four man piggyback system will work or not.

Piggybackers are left to bat..,

The assertion here would be that a piggyback reliever is a worse hitter than the starter who'd presumably be batting instead. Jeff Francis has one hit in 32 plate appearances and -61 OPS+ in 2012. For his career he's at a -18 and he's easily the worst hitter on the team to get more than 20 PA's this year. Anything to take the bat out of his hands, even if it's a piggyback reliever, is a considerable improvement. With the other starters it's a wash, which would be the general point, pitchers don't hit well whether they're relievers or starters.

I think, though, that Renck might be going with a somewhat false impression that this system cuts back on pinch hit appearances, and so far that hasn't been the case. The Rockies are actually on a pace to have 259 plate appearances by pinch hitters, which is within range of what they've usually had, and would actually be the most since 2006 which also had 259, but I think that's another sign that the quality of the starting pitching just hasn't been good this season, particularly early in the year.

What if, for instance, the Rockies go extra innings? It has happened twice since the Rockies went to the four-man. It's a dangerous spot because the piggybackers aren't available, leaving the Rockies facing the real possibility of running out of pitchers or throwing the next day's starter.

For some context, the two extra inning games mentioned were against Washington on June 28 and San Diego on July 21, and Colorado won both games. Including those two extra inning wins, the Rockies went 7-9 overall in the spans between the extra inning game and the team's following off day. That's a losing record, but remember that this is a losing team we're talking about, so my point here would be that there doesn't seem to be as much bullpen damage from the somewhat rare event of an extra inning game as there is benefit to be had with having starters go through a lineup only twice. Worrying about the 1 in 20 occurrence over the 19 in 20 occurrence makes for bad policy decisions in general. If there is a fatigue concern in these situations, that's what the Rockies extended depth at AAA should be used for.

A New York Times Q and A with Raiders running back Darren McFadden found in a Rockies Google search revealed something that I didn't know about Carlos Gonzalez, that he's part of a joint venture with McFadden, skier Lindsay Vonn and basketball player Kevin Love in something called Playmaker Nutrition, which makes sugar-free chewable vitamin supplements. Pro athletes sometimes make some very unwise investment decisions, sometimes they make very lucrative decisions, and sometimes, as is the case with Jason Giambi, they make some decisions which seem bound for legal trouble from the start, but this one seems like a pretty decent risk for Cargo to take with a portion of his money as long as he's got more security elsewhere in his portfolio. I'll be curious how the venture turns out.

Troy Tulowitzki will be returning to the Rockies this week, but he's got an elimination game to play today in his Tulsa rehab as the Drillers forced a game five by winning last night. That initial link this paragraph about Tulo's return also indicates that Adam Ottavino and Jhoulys Chacin may be in line to be part of next Spring's WBC as well as Cargo and Tulo. I would assume Rafael Betancourt would be part of that impressive Venezuelan squad too, but I haven't seen anything for certain on that yet.

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our-man-rotation-myths

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The Stretch Edition

post from Love My Team on 09 September 2012 10:48:04 AM. © Love My Team

So Stephen Strasburg has been shut down, one start earlier than expected. Strasburg isn’t[...]

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1988 HEADLINE: Bruce Sutter Notches Career Save
#300

post from 30-Year Old Cardboard on 09 September 2012 10:23:01 AM. © 30-Year Old Cardboard

1988 HEADLINE: Bruce Sutter Notches Career Save #300 On this day in 1988, Bruce Sutter recorded the 300th and final save of his career. With a career that spanned just 12 big league seasons, Sutter was the master of the … Continue reading →

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eer-save-300/

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Harper: CC Comes Up Small, Again

post from Sliding Into Home: A Yankees Blog on 09 September 2012 10:01:45 AM. © Sliding Into Home: A Yankees Blog

From John Harper:

The Yankees have had worse nights during this stretch in which their 10-game lead, not to mention their aura of superiority, has disappeared. But this was surely the most ominous night of them all.

And not because they got jobbed by first base umpire Jerry Meals. Yes, replays showed that Mark Teixeira was easily safe diving into first base to beat a double-play throw on the final play of the game, and, yes, the game should have been tied.

...

Yet down deep the Yankees have to know even a call like that wasn?t as significant, in terms of where they?re headed, as the inability of CC Sabathia to deliver on a night when they badly needed a gem.

But it wasn?t just that he failed to pitch like an ace. The truth is that from a Yankee perspective, Sabathia was painfully ordinary. And that sure feels ominous.

With a fastball that has clearly lost some explosiveness, Sabathia is vulnerable these days, relying on his changeup and slider more than ever. That makes his margin for error considerably smaller, and so when he made mistakes on Saturday night, the Orioles made him pay dearly.

Three home runs later, the concerns about Sabathia linger. He gave up five runs in 6 1 ? 3 innings, as his ERA rose to 3.56, and he just hasn?t been dominant since dealing with a groin pull and some elbow soreness, injuries that twice landed him on the disabled list.

Even Joe Girardi, who protects his players at all costs, admitted Sabathia hasn?t been the pitcher the Yankees expect him to be.

?He?s struggled a little bit this year,?? he said. ?He hasn?t gotten on the roll we?re used to seeing him get on.??

And let?s face it, the Yankees aren?t going anywhere if this is all Sabathia has to offer the rest of this season.

I completely agree, and if you're are an honest fan I don't see how you can't. The Yankees need CC to be the ace he's supposed to be and he just hasn't been that guy. The Yankees have now lost 5 of the last 8 games CC has started.

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Yankees lose to umpire

post from Lady Loves Pinstripes on 09 September 2012 09:37:41 AM. © Lady Loves Pinstripes

The New York Yankees started last night?s game in sole possession of first-place in the AL East at Camden Yard. But instead of getting a chance to win the game, the Yankees got cheated, literally. Instead the door got slammed in the Yankees face and the[...]

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Make a new plan, Stan!

post from LADodgerTalk.com - Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Vin Scully, Andre Ethier and the Dodgers on 09 September 2012 09:01:55 AM. © LADodgerTalk.com - Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Vin Scully, Andre Ethier and the Dodgers

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Super Sunday Astro Links September 9, 2012

post from The Crawfish Boxes on 09 September 2012 08:01:26 AM. © The Crawfish Boxes

MONTEREY, CA - SEPTEMBER 07: A pack of GT cars races up a hill during practice for the Continental Tire Sports Car Festival at Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca on September 7, 2012 in Monterey, California. (Photo by Brian Cleary/Getty Images)

While Chris was creating music out of an Astros game I was putting together these delightfully links.

September 9, 2012

September 9, 2012 - Dodgers legend Sandy Koufax pitches his fourth and final career no-hitter, a[...]

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Screw You, Jerry Meals

Your browser does not support iframes.
OK, we've all seen the play, and if not, you can above. To make matters worse, here's what crew chief Mike Winters said after the game:

?We looked at a replay. The replay we had, honestly, was not a very good angle and inconclusive. That was just a very, very close play. Until I see a definite replay, I really can?t give you any more than that.?

?We saw a replay and from where I?m sitting, it?s inconclusive. It?s very close. That?s a very close play.?

No, moron it was not very close, not at all. Like John Sterling said, "he was safe by a lot".

Here's what Tex and Girardi had to say about the play:

Mark Teixeira

?Pretty sure the game was televised so everyone saw what it was. It was just a terrible call. It happens.?

?Very frustrating. It started in the eighth inning. We could have had a big inning there and a questionable call on me as well. And in the ninth, sometimes you wonder if the umpires are just trying to get out of there. They don?t want you to make a comeback, they want to go home, because those are terrible calls. It is what it is, but we?re out there fighting, I?m out there playing on one leg and I wish it would have gone my way.?

?It wasn?t even that close, that?s what?s disappointing. We?re out here battling, we?re scratching and clawing for every win, and it wasn?t close. I?m not one to complain about calls, but that was bad.?

?I?m probably going to get fined, but I don?t care, really, because I?m out there fighting. We?re out there fighting. When you?re battling like we?re battling and I?m out there on one leg and they can?t get a call right, that pisses you off. It really does.?

Joe Girardi

?It?s not a bang-bang play. He?s safe. He?s clearly safe. Jerry missed it. You hate to lose a game that way, but he missed it.?

?It?s extremely frustrating. The way we battled back, down in the seventh, get a run in the eighth and you have a chance to tie the ballgame, it?s frustrating. It?s a shame.?

?They?re going to watch it and they?re going to know they missed it.?

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Injury Updates: Tex, Pettitte, Nova

- To make that blown call on the final play of last night's game worse, Mark Teixeira re-injured his left calf and will likely miss Sunday's series finale against the O's.

- In better news, Andy Pettitte threw a simulated game on Saturday and apparently everything went smoothly. Here's a little more on Pettitte from Dan Martin:

?I felt good, it was a good day,? Pettitte said after the session. ?It was another step in the right direction. I am trying to push it as far as I can with feeling a chance of injury.?

Pettitte is expected to have the ankle examined tomorrow in New York and could be cleared to run, which is one of the final hurdles he must clear before he rejoins a beaten-up rotation.

Barring a setback, the lefty would be able to field bunts and cover first base the next time he takes the mound, which should be in Boston this week. That session should last roughly 60 pitches and may be his final rehab appearance

- Ivan Nova came off the DL last night and instead of being inserted into the rotation the Yankees decided to to put him in the bullpen.

?He is in the bullpen for now. Our bullpen has been used a lot,?? said Joe Girardi, who as of Friday had not made a decision on who would start today. ?We will put him down there for now and then we will make some decisions.??

Asked if Nova was a candidate to take David Phelps? start Wednesday in Boston, Girardi danced.

?We are not that far ahead,?? Girardi said. ?With these tricky weather conditions, I am not sure what we are going to need.??

But at some point, Nova is going to start.

?We have always considered him a rotation guy,?? Girardi said. ?He is not a guy who has pitched out of the bullpen a lot. Our concern was to get him back healthy.? I had the rotation set ? that?s Freddy. We didn?t know what we were going to have in Nova.?

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