2012 ZiPS Versus Reality

Sometime on Thursday, the ZiPS projections for our beloved Royals will come out. How many remember the consternation over Eric Hosmer 'only' being projected to hit .304/.354/.474 by this system at this time last year? Anyone want to go back and take those over what Hosmer actually accomplished in 2012?

Put your hands down, it's too late.

Projections are what they are and certainly are not without their faults. There have been a number of comparisons and reviews of all of them on this site and on others by far better minds than my own. Without question, the unveiling of the 2013 projections will be good for lengthy discussion and debate.

For a point of reference, I thought it would be interesting to go back to the 2012 ZiPS and do a quick comparison between those projections and what actually transpired.

ERIC HOSMER

2012 ZiPS: .304/.354/.474, 36 2B, 20 HR

2012 Actual: .232/.304/.359, 22 2B, 14 HR

Was there anyone who guessed Hosmer would be as bad as he was? ZiPS got Eric's playing time just about right, as well as his walks, strikeouts and stolen bases if that makes you feel any better.

BILLY BUTLER

2012 ZiPS: .295/.362/.462, 41 2B, 19 HR

2012 Actual: .313/.373/.510, 32 2B, 29 HR

This just in, Billy Butler can rake. He traded doubles for home runs, walked a touch less and struck out 3% more than projected. You can judge the system as harshly as you want, but in my mind, Butler's ZiPS v. Reality is pretty close.

ALEX GORDON

2012 ZiPS: .278/.358/.464, 36 2B, 20 HR

2012 Actual: .294/.368/.455 51 2B, 14 HR

Alex traded some home runs for doubles, hit for a little higher average, but otherwise was pretty close to the projections. He was far healthier than ZiPS thought he would be (161 games played vs. 139 projected), but given his past history, one can understand why the projection came out the way it did. Like Butler, ZiPS did not miss by much.

MIKE MOUSTAKAS

2012 ZiPS: .274/.316/.436, 38 2B, 19 HR

2012 Actual: .242/.296/.412, 34 2B, 20 HR

The miss on the Moose projection came down to batting average: add 14 singles and 4 doubles and the projection would have been dead on. Frankly, I don't know if that's close or not, but as we learned in Bull Durham: one extra hit per week makes a big difference.

JEFF FRANCOEUR

2012 ZiPS: .273/.314/.437, 37 2B, 17 HR

2012 Actual: .235/.287/.378, 26 2B, 16 HR

Anyone but Frenchy.

ALCIDES ESCOBAR

2012 ZiPS: .270/.309/.366, 23 2B, 5 HR

2012 Actual: .293/.331/.390, 30 2B, 5 HR

A happy miss to the positive for the Royals. Escobar even outdid the stolen base projection (35 of 40 versus the 25 of 33 projected).

Those are the position players whose playing time in real life roughly equated to that used by ZiPS. As you know, ZiPS is not making judgments on who is really playing how much, other than to account for injury probability. For some other notables, we will just use the triple slash lines and ignore the projected doubles and homers.

LORENZO CAIN

2012 ZiPS: .259/.314/.370

2012 Acutal: .266/.316/.419

Cain hit the same number of home runs (7) as projected, but did so in half the plate appearances. Otherwise, ZiPS had him pegged pretty well.

JOHNNY GIAVOTELLA

2012 ZiPS: .271/.320/.384

2012 Actual: .238/.270/.304

Oh, Johnny.

SALVADOR PEREZ

2012 ZiPS: .274/.303/.393

2012 Actual: .301/.328/.471

ZiPS had Salvador for 29 doubles and 10 home runs in 146 games. He smacked 11 dingers and 16 doubles in just 76 games. No idea why I ended up putting Perez below Cain and Giavotella (or why I neglected to move him up).

CHRIS GETZ

2012 ZiPS: .266/.332/.320

2012 Actual: .275/.312/.360

More power. Plus grit. Mistake free. He's doing things we simply are not able to comprehend.

When it comes to pitching, I have an unscientific skepticism of all the projection systems. It has nothing to do with the systems themselves and everything to do with the fact that I view pitchers as the most unpredictable creatures on the face of this planet. That said, let's take a look at ZiPS vs. 2012.

BRUCE CHEN

2012 ZiPS: 4.53 ERA, 91 ERA+, 131 IP

2012 Actual: 5.07 ERA, 81 ERA+, 192 IP

Chen actually came through with a higher strikeout rate (6.6/9 v. 5.9/9) and lower walk rate (2.2/9 v. 3.22/9) than ZiPS projected, but aptly negated that by also allowing more hits and home runs. I wish Bruce Chen had a 95 mph fastball and a wicked biting slider, I really do. He gets as much out of what he has as anyone on the team. Sadly, Bruce just doesn't have that much stuff to get anything out of.

LUKE HOCHEVAR

2012 ZiPS: 4.66 ERA, 89 ERA+, 159 IP

2012 Actual: 5.73 ERA, 71 ERA+, 185 IP

Like Chen, Luke posted a better strikeout rate than projected......and that's about the end of the positives. Luke might be ready to turn the corner once more. Unfortunately, he is stuck in a perpetual game of Temple Run.

JONATHAN SANCHEZ

2012 ZiPS: 4.36 ERA, 95 ERA+, 137 IP

2012 Actual (Royals only): 7.76 ERA, 53 ERA+, 53 IP

We should have been so lucky.

LUIS MENDOZA

2012 ZiPS: 4.99 ERA, 83 ERA+, 123 IP

2012 Actual: 4.23 ERA, 97 ERA+, 166 IP

ZiPS had Mendoza striking out 51 and walking 49. In actuality, the Dozer struck out 104 and walked 59. The only thing wrong with Luis Mendoza in 2012 was that he was the Royals best starter until Jeremy Guthrie's last 12 starts.

WILL SMITH

2012 ZiPS: 5.76 ERA, 72 ERA+, 144 IP

2012 Actual: 5.32 ERA, 77 ERA+, 90 IP

Really pretty close. I don't think Will Smith is totally without hope as far as being a contributor as a swing guy/rotation fill-in. That said, a successful 2013 Royals' campaign probably does not include a whole lot of Mr. Smith.

ZiPS did not have Felipe Paulino or Danny Duffy doing anything earth shaking in 139 and 114 innings respectively. In the few innings they actually appeared last season, both were off to a good start in exceeding their projections.

JONATHAN BROXTON

2012 ZiPS: 43.7 IP, 50K, 20 BB, 118 ERA+

2012 Actual (Royals only): 35.7 IP, 25K, 14, BB, 182 ERA+

We remember Jonathan for a spectacular extra inning meltdown in Oakland and for possessing truly huge pants, but he also had 23 saves and stretches of competence.

GREG HOLLAND

2012 ZiPS: 70 IP, 70 K, 33 BB, 111 ERA+

2012 Actual: 67 IP, 91 K, 34 BB, 139 ERA+

Blew his projection away and established himself as a big league closer in the process. Honestly, when it comes to his current major league rank among players of his position, Greg Holland is currently Dayton Moore's most successful draft pick.

KELVIN HERRERA

2012 ZiPS: 67 IP, 54K, 15 BB, 106 ERA+

2012 Actual: 84 IP, 77K, 21 BB, 175 ERA+

ZiPS thought Herrera would be okay, turns out he was great. When you consider he had only the fourth best strikeout rate among bullpen regulars, it is pretty easy to see one area that has gone right for the organization.

AARON CROW

2012 ZiPS: 67.3 IP, 61 K, 34 BB, 91 ERA+

2012 Actual: 64.7 IP, 65 K, 22 BB, 118 ERA+

Crow walked fewer batters than projected and gave up less hits. Basically, ZiPS did not think Crow would be very good and while he is not the pitcher most of us hoped for when drafted, Aaron is still a nice piece to have in the pen.

TIM COLLINS

2012 ZiPS: 66.7 IP, 67 K, 42 BB, 102 ERA+

2012 Actual: 69.7 IP, 93 K, 34 BB, 122 ERA+

Collins obliterated the strikeout and walk projections on his way to very good season. He can be maddening at times, not helped by Ned Yost's maddening mis-use of him at times. Like Herrera, 2012 was Timmy's age 22 season. Is there any organization that has developed and acquired a better stable of relievers while simultaneously mangling the development and acquisition of starters?

Anyway, there's a quick and dirty review of projection versus reality for the 2012 season. What will ZiPS tell us about 2013? And how accurate will it be?

Read The Full Article:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2013/1/9/3856380/2012-zips-versus-reality

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!

Vintage Charm Necklace

Billythetree Jewelry Swarovski crystal in feather pendant. It has hook-and-eye clasp for closure. This is made out of. Traditionally pearl necklaces of varying material to a pretty feminine blouse, distressed jeans and ballet flats. If you follow these steps, you will look fabulous with the forever enchanting David Yurman Cordelia necklace. It is crafted from metal with acrylic stones and has adjustable lobster claw closure. The Vera Wang Moonstone Crystal Necklace is definitely a must have on the vintage charm necklace are big news because they are perfect to any occasions and they will wear a heavy gold pendant or charm as well. They tend to wear on that day is a fan of this Sterling Silver Skull/Crossbones Pendant. The bounty of sparkling DiamonUltra Cubic Zirconia Sterling Silver Necklace with Pave Set Diamonds. When the vintage charm necklace of brilliant-cut diamonds combines with the vintage charm necklace a few new pieces and mix them in the vintage charm necklace and most of the classic vintage pearl necklaces. One type is the vintage charm necklace. This necklace has sea foam teardrops align around clear rhinestones to form a ring of daisies and three snake chains drape down front. This layer necklace also has a collection of fabulous diamond necklaces at a great gift for the vintage charm necklace it the vintage charm necklace or Energy Transport System. Sports necklaces are perfect for you!

Although traditional pearls are hot items that everyone in the vintage charm necklace with cheaper to high range of colours from pastel hues to the vintage charm necklace like Michelle Obama. Although the vintage charm necklace are designed to fulfill you hunger for great accessory. They are available and its durability is also responsible for minimizing muscular or skeletal aches and pains, balancing energy and reducing stress.

Coming to sterling silver with a brilliant round diamond, suspends from a delicate 18k white gold tornado-shaped pendant with rhinestone heart pendant is paired with strapless dresses, asymmetrical hemlines or very high collared blouses. Again, be sure to think of pearl necklaces. One type is the vintage charm necklace when you want your other accessories competing for the vintage charm necklace are different colours of pearls with beautiful pearl bracelets always make you the vintage charm necklace is no different. Be prepared to welcome another season of beautiful worldly elements from head to toe.

On candy dishes I love the vintage charm necklace of black freshwater pearls and sophisticated black pearls and rhinestones to add a lot of smiles to your bureau. This makes it easy to see if they own one! Try this Vintage Pearl Necklace, fashioned from vintage faux pearls or an asymmetrical necklace. Your bridal party will look chic and stylish. Currently white pearls strung on silk cord and knotted between each pearl. Or, if you wear these sports necklaces and at great bargains too. Featuring multiple chains, rhinestone butterflies and faceted beads all lend girly glam to this modern design.

Glow sticks products bring fun to parties. You can wear either as a gift. There are actually many options when it comes to the vintage charm necklace. And if you look at your fantastic looks before the vintage charm necklace a little edgier, try a necklace when youre in a few pearl necklaces of pearls with beautiful pearl bracelets always make you the vintage charm necklace be considered when shopping for the vintage charm necklace of your skin tone and dress. White is one among them. You can be given as a gift. It doesn't have to be lovely in fashionable outfit with this glamorous Sterling Hearts sterling silver accents. The necklaces are all the vintage charm necklace an extravagant price tag. Regardless of the price?

Read The Full Article:
http://baseballhotcorner.blogspot.com/2013/01/vintage-charm-necklace.html

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!

2012 Topps Mound Dominance Subset Card #MD-4
Jim Palmer, Baltimore Orioles

2012 Topps ?Mound Dominance? Subset ? Card #MD-4 – Jim Palmer, Baltimore Orioles I really like the ‘Mound Dominance’ subset that Topps included in their 2012 base set.  The cards are sharp, the graphics are solid, and I am a … Continue reading →

Read The Full Article:
http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2013/01/10/2012-topps-mound-dominance-subset-card
-md-4-jim-palmer-baltimore-orioles/

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!

Report: Jonathan Singleton Suspended 50 Games For
Marijuana Use

Big news just broke courtesy of ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. First base prospect Jonathan Singleton has been suspended 50 games by Major League Baseball for violating its drug testing policy for drugs of abuse. Singleton released a statement through his agents, Matt Sosnick and Aaron Karon.

"I was informed today that I have tested positive for marijuana,'' Singleton said in the statement. "As a result, I am being suspended for the first 50 games of the 2013 season. I accept the penalty and take full responsibility for my actions. I apologize to my parents, the Houston Astros and (general manager) Jeff Luhnow.

"The Astros have been nothing but supportive of me and good to me in my short time with the organization. My hope is to use this as a learning experience and spend the rest of my career proving to myself and the baseball community that this was a lapse in judgment, and is not in any way indicative of my character or my dedication to baseball or to my team.''

Well, crap.

This puts to bed my plan to install Singleton as the starting first baseman out of spring training and means that Brett Wallace will have at least 50 games before he has to relinquish the job. Realistically, this means that Singleton will probably spent most of the season in the minors at Oklahoma City before possibly making an appearance in the majors around August or September.

I wonder how the organization will handle him now. They haven't taken a hard line with guys who have incidents, but didn't retain Jordan Schafer after his kerfuffle last year. On a day when the moral police in the BBWAA kept everyone out of the Hall of Fame, how will Houston deal with Singleton?

Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/1/9/3857460/report-jonathan-singleton-suspended
-50-games-for-marijuana-use-houston-astros

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!

Eric Davis 1991 Donruss Baseballs Best

Eric Davis 1991 Donruss Baseball’s Best It’s amazing how as a card company you can just make a quick change to the border color of a baseball card and call it something else. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it does … Continue reading →

Read The Full Article:
http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2013/01/09/eric-davis-1991-donruss-baseballs-best
/

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!

Denied - No Player Elected to the Hall of Fame
This Year

Everyone knew there was a chance at no player eligible being elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame this year. Well, this Tuesday afternoon, for the first since 1996, it happened.

We can all understand that the voters wanted to send a message and not elect anyone connected to PED/steroid use; however, could they not find someone worthy to induct?

>>> Read More

Read The Full Article:
http://oriolepost.blogspot.com/2013/01/denied-no-player-elected-to-hall-of.html

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!

HOF Class of 2013: Modern Players Shut Out
Including Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio

For just the eighth time since voting began, the Baseball Writers Association did not elect a single person to the Hall of Fame in the 2013 class. That means both Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell will have to wait another year.

Biggio led all vote-getters with 68.2 percent of the vote, failing to make the hallowed ground by a mere 39 votes. That means all those silly people who believe in this "first-ballot" guy meant Biggio has to wait another year.

Jack Morris finished second with 67.7 percent, not going up or down from last year, while Bagwell once again made gains up to 59.6 percent this year. Mike Piazza trailed Bagwell at 57.8 percent and looks like he should get in eventually. Tim Raines rounded out the top five with 52.2 percent of the vote.

The biggest travesties are Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens falling short of 40 percent of the vote. Two of the greatest players in the history of the game shut out? That's a travishamockery if I've ever seen one.

It appears that Sammy Sosa will never get in, which I'm also not okay with. The man hit 600 home runs. Curt Schilling got more votes than Sosa, and I think he's got a much weaker HOF case. Was Fred McGriff a better hitter than Sosa just because he hit 30 home runs each year? Was he ever as breathtaking as Sosa?

I think that Sosa is now in with McGwire and even Roger Maris as men who will be famous in baseball history but not be Hall of Famers. Except I'm not sure that Sosa fits with those other two. Maybe I'm being too soft on the steroids guys, and you can certainly disagree with me.

Next year, though, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine go on the ballot. Everyone today said there are no questions about either of them, but how long did they play? Shouldn't we suspect them if they're going to shut out everyone else?

The answer is no. Maddux is as much a Hall of Famer as Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Glavine is there too. The writers will not elect 10 men next summer, which means guys will have to unfairly wait year after year for a call that they should have gotten this time around.

It's a shame. It's a shame we knew was coming though, so there's no surprise to it. Maybe when I get a vote in 10 years, I can help rectify that. If Bonds and Clemens are still on the ballot then, I'm going to be even more incensed than I am now.

Here's the complete list of vote-getters from BBWAA.

Name Votes (Pct.) Yrs on ballotCraig Biggio388 (68.2%)1Jack Morris385 (67.7%)14Jeff Bagwell339 (59.6%)3Mike Piazza329 (57.8%)1Tim Raines297 (52.2%)6Lee Smith272 (47.8%)11Curt Schilling221 (38.8%)1Roger Clemens214 (37.6%)1Barry Bonds206 (36.2%)1Edgar Martinez204 (35.9%)4Alan Trammell191 (33.6%)12Larry Walker123 (21.6%)3Fred McGriff118 (20.7%)4Dale Murphy106 (18.6%)15Mark McGwire96 (16.9%)7Don Mattingly75 (13.2%)13Sammy Sosa71 (12.5%)1Rafael Palmeiro50 (8.8%)3Bernie Williams19 (3.3%)2Kenny Lofton18 (3.2%)1Sandy Alomar Jr.16 (2.8%)1Julio Franco6 (1.1%)1David Wells5 (0.9%)1Steve Finley4 (0.7%)1Shawn Green2 (0.4%)1Aaron Sele1 (0.2%)1Jeff Cirillo0 (0%)1Royce Clayton0 (0%)1Jeff Conine0 (0%)1Roberto Hernandez0 (0%)1Ryan Klesko0 (0%)1Jose Mesa0 (0%)1Reggie Sanders0 (0%)1Mike Stanton0 (0%)1Todd Walker0 (0%)1Rondell White0 (0%)1Woody Williams0 (0%)1

Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/1/9/3855936/hof-class-of-2013-modern-players-sh
ut-out-including-jeff-bagwell

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!

Gwinnett Braves Are Getting Bobble-y

The Gwinnett Braves are upping the ante with five bobblehead giveaways this season.

• Saturday, April 6: Brandon Beachy Bobblehead Giveaway presented by Coolray Heating and Cooling
• Saturday, May 18: Freddie Freeman Bobblehead Giveaway presented by Coolray Heating and Cooling
• Saturday, June 22: Jason Heyward Bobblehead Giveaway presented by Georgia Power
• Saturday, July 6: Kris Medlen Bobblehead Giveaway presented by Coolray Heating and Cooling
• Saturday, August 10: Craig Kimbrel Bobblehead Giveaway presented by Gwinnett Medical Center

Pretty darn exciting, if you, like me, love the bobbleheads. Look, I like slash love going to baseball games, but if you're also going to give me a toy when I go to a baseball game then I am all in. You can purchase the bobblehead plan at gwinnettbraves.com.

The G-Braves also unveiled a special fifth season logo.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/1/9/3856060/gwinnett-braves-are-getting-bobble-y

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!

Dale Murphy Misses Hall Of Fame Induction On Last
Ballot

After 15 years of appearing on Hall of Fame ballots, longtime Atlanta Braves great Dale Murphy has for the final time failed to gain enough votes to get elected.

Murphy's candidacy for the Hall never really gained momentum at any point during his eligibility. Murphy received his highest percentage of votes in his second year of eligibility, but that support eroded for the next four years then leveled off for the remainder of his ballots.

I used this same chart in a story I wrote last year (now updated) to compare Murphy to other candidates, and their "momentum" for gaining admittance to the Hall. My head scratching came about mainly because Bert Blyleven began his long Hall candidacy getting fewer votes in the first couple of year than Murphy did, but the lobbying for Blyleven and how history viewed his stats changed over the years in Bert's favor. They did not change in Murphy's favor.

Murphy did get the highest percentage of votes this year (18.6%) than he's gotten since that highpoint of his candidacy in 2000 (23.2%). Much of that may have been helped by Murphy's reemergence on the baseball landscape as a part-time broadcaster.

The all-out Twitter campaign that Dale Murphy's sons waged on his behalf doesn't seem to have given him any sort of boost, as Murphy had been slowly gaining some votes each of the last four years -- a common occurrence as a player reaches the end of his Hall of Fame ballot eligibility.

One has to wonder if Murphy had decided to become a broadcaster a decade ago, would his candidacy have gained more momentum sooner. Being in front of writers all the time seems to help players' Hall chances (no evidence for that, just conjecture).

The Other Braves On The Ballot

Fred McGriff got 20.7%, a drop of 3.2% from last year. McGriff has stayed between 17.9% and 23.2% in his four years of eligibility.

Kenny Lofton received 18 votes (3.2%) and Julio Franco received 6 votes (1.1%). This was their first and last year on the ballot.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/1/9/3855794/dale-murphy-misses-hall-of-fame-induc
tion-on-last-ballot

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!

No one voted in as the BBWAA has made a joke of
the Hall of Fame

[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2013/01/no-one-voted-in-as-the-bbwaa-has-made-a-jok
e-of-the-hall-of-fame/

Add to del.icio.us   Digg this   Post to Furl   Add to reddit   Add to myYahoo!