Tom Meagher On The New McMansion

post from 6-4-2 ? an Angels/Dodgers double play blog on 08 January 2009 04:16:00 AM. © 6-4-2 ? an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Tom Meagher, presciently commenting (though I'm certain he didn't know it at the time) on yesterday's news of a new $46M McCourt double-wide beachside mansion in Malibu:

The Dodgers simply must fund a top-caliber team. McCourt is trading the franchise's capital for gains in the balance sheet (in essence, gains for his personal supply of capital); the burden is on him to return what has been taken from the fans by emptying those coffers.

I'm not saying that at this point that hasn't been done, but all along, I was in the position that if the Dodgers traded for Manny (and especially Casey Blake) that they then had to re-sign those players, or deal adequately with the holes their free agency departures would create. Whether the Dodgers' situation precludes them from re-upping Manny or not, we know that Frank is certainly paying himself well.

David Pinto reminds us this is the value of the offer to Manny, roughly; the deal was worth $45M.

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http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2009/01/tom-meagher-on-new-mcmansion.html

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The Smoltz Era Coming To An End in Atlanta

post from Oriole Post - Baltimore Orioles Analysis & News; The World of Baseball and Beyond on 08 January 2009 03:59:00 AM. © Oriole Post - Baltimore Orioles Analysis & News; The World of Baseball and Beyond

If someone told me last month that John Smoltz would ever leave Atlanta and consider the possibility of playing in another uniform, I would have laughed at you.

Now it looks like one of the mainstays of those great Braves teams is now moving north to Boston. The Braves have seemingly given up on John Smoltz, due to his injuries and recovery from shoulder surgery. It looks like he will be joining the Red Sox in 2009.

>> Read More

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http://oriolepost.blogspot.com/2009/01/smoltz-era-coming-to-end-in-atlanta.html

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What Does "Lose Out" Mean When The Subject Is
Trevor Hoffman

post from 6-4-2 ? an Angels/Dodgers double play blog on 08 January 2009 03:57:00 AM. © 6-4-2 ? an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Whatever, the Times reports that Trevor Hoffman is near a deal with Milwaukee.

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http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2009/01/what-does-lose-out-mean-when-subject-is.html

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Yankees Revive Rivalry

post from BASEBALL HOT CORNER on 08 January 2009 01:18:00 AM. © BASEBALL HOT CORNER

Yankees' headlines have dominated the hot stove as a $423 million investment has revitalized the[...]

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http://baseballhotcorner.blogspot.com/2009/01/yankees-revive-rivalry.html

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Sign of a Trade

post from Baseball Musings on 08 January 2009 12:31:00 AM. © Baseball Musings

Nico at Athletics Nation wonders if the signing of Jason Giambi will lead to Oakland trading an outfielder for a shortstop....

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http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/030612.php

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Line Drives, BABIP, and Minute Maid Park

post from The Crawfish Boxes on 08 January 2009 12:21:00 AM. © The Crawfish Boxes

Here is an interesting article at Fangraphs which touches on all of the subjects in the title of this post. The author demonstrates that line drive rates and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) vary by ballpark. The article questions the validity of comparing the "Line Drive % + .12" rule of thumb to BABIP rates. However, in the course of doing so, the article identifies significant differences in line drive rates by ballpark.

This, in itself, is intriguing. And Minute Maid Park is at ground zero of this phenomona. As stated in the article:

Four of the lowest six LD rates belong to Michael Bourn, Geoff Blum, Ty Wigginton and Hunter Pence, and Minute Maid Park has the second lowest LD park factor at 0.82. This is not saying that Houston batters hit fewer line drives - it’s that Houston and it opponents both have 18% fewer balls scored as liners in Houston than they do on the road.

Why? Well that is the intrigue I mentioned. Could this amount to human bias in the coding of batted balls as line drive, flyball, etc. ? Are factors like the batting background, atmospheric conditions, foul territory, and the like causing differences among ballparks?

In some previous posts regarding Hunter Pence, I expressed concern about his seemingly depressed line drive rate this year. Now I see that maybe this has as much to do with the ballpark as it does Pence's skill.

The article derives a simple linear equation using line drive, flyball, and groundball rates as variables which proves to be very accurate at predicting hitters' BABIP. However, when the formula is turned around to predict pitchers' BABIP, he finds that certain pitchers consistently beat the prediction:

Even so, some pitchers consistently defy the estimates. Roger Clemens, Brian Bannister, Chien-Ming Wang, Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Chris Young and Greg Maddux all do at least .020 better than estimated. On the other end, Zach Duke, Sidney Ponson and Glendon Rusch all under perform by at least .020. Is it the ballpark? Is it their defense? The batters they faced? Or is it their own skill or lack of it?

The author of this article seems to be finding that the normally accepted precepts of DIPS are more nuanced than it is often presented. He hopes to present more detailed research in the future which disaggregates batted ball types and fielding conditons by ballpark in more detail.

This may or may not totally bore you. The article is somewat dense to read. But I have to say that this article seems to be challenging accepted views on BABIP and DIPS in an interesting way.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/1/7/713575/line-drives-babip-and-minu

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Bill James on the BCS

Bill James on the BCSH/T LoneStarBall[...]

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http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/1/8/713598/bill-james-on-the-bcs

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12 Autograph Requests Have Been Mailed!!!

I am very eager to see how this goes. This morning I dropped off 12 envelopes for 11 baseball players and 1 Olympic hero. I’m sending these autograph requests to Hall of Famers, All-stars, Sentimental favorites, and heroes of my childhood.The guys - Mike Lowell, Mike Mussina, Pete Rose, Duke Snider, Stan Musial, Bruce Jenner, [...]

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http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2009/01/08/12-autograph-requests-have-been-mailed
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