TCB Top 20 Astros Prospect Review

We have one month left in the minor league season and promotions are starting to happen as prospects are challenged to see how they'll fare against higher competition. So, lets review how the top 20 prospects have fared this season and what it has meant to their prospect stock. This is not a new list, but a review of the list we put together in the off-season.
For players who have played in more than one level, I put their combined stats and discussed some differences from level in the write up for them. I also did not include their grade as our grade we assigned was a composite grade. Each of us put different value on different stats and reports so it's hard to really put a grade on them at this point. I did note my opinion on where their stock has gone, whether it's improved, dropped or holding. So, yes this is a lot like what John Sickels is currently doing. I love that guy!

1. Jonathan Singleton 1B AA .279/.392/.865-Singleton has spent the whole season in AA Corpus and has improved his stock overall. He's the seventh youngest in the Texas League but has still managed to improve his numbers over his combined numbers from last year. His power is beginning to show up and he gets on-base at a ridiculous rate.
2. Jarred Cosart SP AA/AAA 96 2/3 IP 3.82 ERA-Stuff is still electric but his BB% is up. He's continuing to induce a ton of outs by groundballs (56.6 GB%) but the strikeouts are still lower than you'd expect. He's struggled with blisters a lot this season and is currently on the shelf with them again after his second AAA start. Stock is holding.
3. George Springer CF A+ .322/.403/.567-Numbers are a little inflated by Lancaster, but he is still hitting away from Lancaster. We've learned a lot about Springer this year and one is we'll have to be patient. He has work still to do with his swing and he's aggressive at the plate, meaning he's going to be a high strikeout guy. But, the good news is that his defense is reportedly very good in CF. His stock is up and could go higher once he gets promoted.

4. Domingo Santana RF A+ .286/.362/.513-Another solid Lancaster hitter, but his stats aren't quite as good as Springer. Reports are similar with Springer as he is striking out too much. Apparently he looks very impressive and his stock is up as some prospect analysts are possibly favoring him over Springer. His canon of an arm is evident but defense is still very raw. As the youngest player in the California League, you can't help but take it and be excited about it.

5. Jonathan Villar SS AA .261/.336/.396-Very slow start with a surging mid-season. He was showing much better plate discipline and his power was coming around. He was actually starting to look like the player he ended last season as. Although, he was starting to slump a bit again with just a .211 average over his last ten games and he punched a door. He's now in the middle of DL stint due to a broken hand. Stock is holding because of upside and the talent he was beginning to show again.

6. Ariel Ovando OF Rk .297/.348/.448-He's improved in every facet of the game. In just four more plate appearances, he's drawn two more walks and struck out two fewer times. So, not a big improvement, but reports are he looks more comfortable at the plate. Still has a long way to go with handling the strikezone though. He has hit for more power and has improved his routes in the OF. Stock is holding primarily because he made improvements but is still a long way off. His stock is arguably slightly improved, but I'm sticking with holding.

7. Paul Clemens SP AA/AAA 113 1/3 IP/6.83 ERA-Great spring training and start to the season, but has been terrible since a back injury. His 6.73 ERA in Oklahoma City earned him a demotion to AA where he hasn't faired any better. He turns 25 in Febuary, so his days as a starting pitcher are starting to be counted. His stuff should play well in the pen. Stock: DOWN

8. Austin Wates OF AA .303/.366/.410-His numbers are oddly similar to his Lancaster numbers of .300/.366/.413! It's kinda creepy actually. What you see is what you are going to get. He's going to hit, draw some walks, hit an occasional bomb with an occasional stolen base. His hitting is his best tool. As a center-fielder, he'd be a high end prospect but he is consistently pushed to LF by better defenders in CF. He's a lot like J.B. Shuck with a little more power. Stock is down despite maintaining his hitting outside of Lancaster.

9. Adrian Houser SP Rk 49 IP/4.59 ERA-Small sample sizes be warned! Throwing out his last start and his ERA drops to 3.43. Houser is repeating a level but has already pitched more innings, increased his strikeout rate, lowered his walk rate, and made a huge jump in groundouts. Finishing out the season will tell us more, but I'm going to stay stock is up slightly but holding is understandable.

10. Brett Oberholtzer SP AA/AAA 131 IP/5.02 ERA-Obie was showing improvement but hasn't adjusted well to his promotion to AAA. His walk rate is lower in AAA, but so is his strikeout rate and groundball rate. It's a hitters league and it's difficult for lower velocity lefty's. He's giving up a lot of home runs, and until he puts a stop to that, problems will continue. Stock is slightly down.

11. Delino DeShields Jr. 2B Low-A .294/.396/.430-I don't even know how he wasn't in the top 10! He has improved across the board and is now in top 100 territory. He's hitting the ball more, walking more, striking out less, hitting for more power, and stealing bases at an insane rate. He still has work to do on defense, but it is very exciting to see his turn around. Stock: WAY UP!

12. Jiovanni Mier SS High-A .309/.414/.447-Jio was performing much better in his return to Lancaster. He was hitting and drawing walks while striking out a decent rate. Defense was great as well. But, just after 26 games he pulled a hamstring and has been on the shelf since. He's finally back on the field after a few setbacks and played five games with the GCL team. He should be heading back to Lancaster now and hope he can play as well as he did pre-injury because short-stop depth is getting cut-throat. Stock is realistically down, but I'm holding...call be stubborn.

13. Mike Foltynewicz SP Low-A 132 IP/2.93 ERA-Despite making three fewer starts, he is two innings short of last year's total and his ERA is two full runs lower. His groundout rate is up as well as his strikeout rate. His walk is up by a minuscule amount as well, but its bearable. He's repeating the level but is still age appropriate. He still has lots of work to do in refining command and his pitches, but things are looking up. Stock slightly up.

14. Jake Goebbert OF AA/AAA .264/.369/.404-His stint in AAA was only a few weeks but is notable, and not in a good way. Goebbert seems to be topping out a bit. His playing time has diminished and despite playing hard, reports are that he makes poor decisions in the field. He'll be 25 next month and currently plays in AA. Things aren't looking up. Stock is down.

15. Nick Tropeano SP Low-A/High-A 126 1/3 IP/3.35 ERA-The ERA of 2.78 in Lexington earned him a jump to Lancaster where his 4.62 ERA still looks quite nice, given the environment. Since the promotion, he has increased his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate, but is still over a 9 K/9 (barely). He's actually done well adapting as he's worked on groundballs more. The numbers in Lexington speak for themselves and are amazing. His stock is up quite a bit.

16. Jack Armstrong P-Despite being drafted in 2011, he has yet to pitch for the Astros in an official game. He pitched in Extended Spring Training against other teams, but we know nothing about that. He has been shelved with Tommy John surgery. Stock is down.

17. Kyle Hallock SP Low-A 18 IP/11.50 ERA-I can't make those numbers up. There were a lot of expectations placed on Hallock going into the season after he pitched very well in the NYPL, but he could not capitalize. He lost his command and he couldn't strike anyone out, and to make things worse, he couldn't keep the ball in the park. Just bad all around. He was demoted after just five starts and quickly went under the knife. He apparently had been struggling with some injuries which easily could have led to his disastrous season. Stock is down, especially since he just turned 24,

18. Chris Wallace C .265/.353/.423-The man behind the mask had every fan pumped after he destroyed Lexington last season but immediately tampered our expectations when he was promoted to Corpus. This season, expectations were lowered with an inkling of hope that the Lexington bat would catch up to him. It hasn't really. He was hitting more doubles in his return to C.C., but the home run power still isn't there. He earned a call-up to OkC, where his numbers have improved in a small sample. His ability to throw out base stealers is still suspect but he could still provide some value as a back-up catcher. Stock declining slowly in his age 24 season.

19. Vincent Velasquez SP 45 2/3 IP/3.35 ERA-His ERA is inflated from his start last night that was poor overall. But, his strikeout rate is very nice and his walk rate doesn't make you run and hide. He missed all of last season after Tommy John in his first season after being drafted and expectations were low. Velasquez has answered a lot of questions and fans are excited. His progress will be slow as the front office is going to careful with his arm, but his stock is climbing since he is just 20 in what is really his second season.

20. Kody Hinze 1B .214/.302/.370-He's a product of high expectations from when older hitters dominate low levels and then hit in Lancaster. Hinze, despite hitting 11 home runs this season, just hasn't done anything. He's now 25 and there's not much more to hope for. He was ranked this high in hopes he would regains some of his previous power and plate discipline after and adjustment period, but that hasn't happened. His stock is bottoming out.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/8/8/3227195/tcb-top-20-astros-prospect-review

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Fish Cap: Marlins 4, Mets 2

Source: FanGraphs

Attendance: 28,968

Hero of the Game: John Buck (1.36 WPA)

Goat of the Game: Donovan Solano(-.114 WPA)

Play of the Game: In the forth inning, Carlos Lee singled to left. Justin Ruggiano scored. While Jose Reyes advances to third base. (.147 WPA)

The Marlins win game one of this series behind their good relief pitching, and timely hitting from Carlos Lee and John Buck. The game was not exciting after the fifth inning. And the return of Giancarlo Stanton did not necessarily make it to the highlight shows (zero for three with two strikeouts). However, Jose Reyes was able to extend his hitting streak to 25 games with an infield single in the forth. And so the longest hitting streak in the majors this season lives on.

The Offense Does Enough

The Marlins offense produced nine hits on this day. Specifically, two hits each for Buck, Justin Ruggiano, and Austin Kearns. Two runs batted in for John Buck, while Carlos Lee and Giancarlo each get one. And even more incredible, John Buck's two runs batted in were with two outs in the inning (where was that earlier in the season?). Again, the Marlins did enough on offense to win this game. They got four runs in the forth, and that's it.

The Relief Pitched Great

Carlos Zambrano, Mike Dunn, Heath Bell, and Steve Cishek pitched the last four innings of this game and give up no runs. In fact, they don't even give up a hit. They were dominant. They used their strikeout pitch (they recorded five punch outs between the four relievers), and only walked one batter. It was nice to see these guys step up with Wade LeBlanc observing a strict pitch limit (85).

Read The Full Article:
http://www.fishstripes.com/2012/8/8/3227709/fish-cap-marlins-4-mets-2

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Strikeout total leading Granderson to struggle

[...]

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http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2012/08/strikeout-total-leading-granderson-to-strug
gle/

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HAPPY BIRTHDAY To 30-Year Old Cardboard!!!!!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY To ’30-Year Old Cardboard’!!!!! That’s right, the blog turns four years old today.  And it has been one hell of a ride.  Four years ago today, I took the plunge and created this side project that was originally … Continue reading →

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http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2012/08/08/happy-birthday-to-30-year-old-cardboar
d/

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One day turnaround

The Phillies looked as good in game two of their set with the Braves as they had looked bad inRead the Rest...

Read The Full Article:
http://www.philliesflow.com/2012/08/08/one-day-turnaround/

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Royal Rumblings - Aikens, Smith, Mendoza, Cain

I am going to take the lead from Craig on Monday and go over a variety of subjects after taking last week off.

Disappointed with Safe at Home

I have finally finished reading "Safe at Home: Willie Mays Aikens" by Gregory Jordan. I am not sure what to think about it. The book started out great, but the last 1/3 of it just didn't seem to work. It was all over the place. If there was a message I just didn't get it. People can get over struggles? Crack cocaine penalties were too hard? He still likes other women other than my wife? Fried chicken is good? It is tough to adjust to family life after being in jail? Baseball is cool? George Brett is even cooler? It seemed that there need to be a few more words to help bring together some ideas started earlier in the book to a good conclusion.

It is kinda disappointing that the end was such a mishmash of ideas, because the first 2/3rds was well written.

• Aikens' history getting to baseball.
• His time getting high in KC.
• Moving on to play in Mexico and fathering several different children from several different women.
• Getting set up for drug and gun charges
• The time he spent in jail.

All these themes ran smoothly and then just died at the end. No final thoughts. No tying it together. Just a little disappointing, kinda like Aikens' baseball career.

Will Smith in the Majors

I am not sure what to make of Will Smith. He seems to be pitching OK, but just not good enough to really make any long term difference. His 5.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 are somewhat inline with his minor league values of 7.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. To see what kind of pitcher he is like I collected some comps to compare him to:

Name: K/9, BB/9, ERA
Will Smith: 5.5, 3.2, 5.34
Barry Zito: 5.2, 4.0, 4.27
Tim Hudson: 5.5, 2.4, 3.45
Jason Vargas: 5.7, 2.4, 3.69
Clay Buchholz: 5.9, 3.1, 4.48
Picky Nolasco: 5.9, 2.8, 4.95
Jeremy Hellickson: 5.9, 3.4, 3.43

Not a horrible group of pitchers. The key that has kept these pitchers in the league is their ability to not allow HRs. Here are their HR/9

Name: HR/9
Will Smith: 1.6
Barry Zito: 1.1
Tim Hudson: 0.5
Jason Vargas: 1.4
Clay Buchholz: 1.2
Picky Nolasco: 1.0
Jeremy Hellickson: 1.4

The key for Smith to make with his K and BB numbers is have is HR/9 south of 1.0. It was 0.9 in the minors, with in the increase in talent at the ML level, it will be tough for him to make it.

One good aspect of Smith is that is efficient with his pitches. Looking at all Royals pitchers with over 35 IP, he has the 3rd lowest P/IP value.

NameP/IPKelvin Herrera15.0Luis Mendoza15.2Will Smith15.3Aaron Crow15.4Jonathan Broxton15.7Luke Hochevar16.1Tim Collins16.9Felipe Paulino16.9Bruce Chen17.0Everett Teaford17.1Jose Mijares17.5Greg Holland18.0Jonathan Sanchez20.8

Keep it Down Mendoza

Two nights ago, Mendoza gave up 2 home runs to right-handed hitters. Here is a plot of the pitches that were put into play.

Pitches in the lower part of the plate turned into ground outs (or a Frenchy ball chasing triple). Up and inside, home runs. Keep the ball down.

Cain - First Pitch Hacking

It was mentioned by Super Rex, or whatever he is calling himself now a days, and some of our commentors that Cain swings at a ton at first pitches. Statisically he is not that bad compared to other Royals and the rest of the American League. Here are some 1st pitch swinging percentages:

Francoeur: 33%
Escobar: 25%
League Average: 25%
Hosmer: 24%
Perez: 24%
Moose: 20%
Cain: 19%
Dyson: 19%
Butler: 18%
Gordon: 18%
Getz: 13%

All of the hitters have learned from the Greatest Hitting Coach Ever not to go first pitching hacking. Well, all except Frenchy.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/8/8/3225793/royal-rumblings-aikens-smith-mendoza
-cain

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Scouting Video and Notes: Triple-A New Orleans

video details and more

{Sorry for the crummy video, I thought my iPhone would have better quality.}

I recently had the chance to watch some Marlins' prospects play at Triple-A New Orleans. While I missed Jacob Turner's start by one day, I did get a chance to see Rob Brantly behind the plate. Overall, I came away not very impressed. However, one lesser-known player raised the eyebrows of me and scouts in the audience. Anyways, here are some scouting notes on five of the New Orleans' players.

Rob Brantly, C: Brantly, of course, was the second biggest name in the Marlins/Tigers trade that sent Anibal Sanchez to Detroit. I came to the ballpark hearing mixed things about Brantly. Some people in the industry see him as an average everyday catcher who could hit 10-12 homers a year, and see some see him as nothing more than a backup. By the time I left the ballpark, I tended to lean towards the backup catcher projection.

Physically, Brantly reminded me a lot of Rob Johnson except Brantly is a little less pudgy. He's not of the prototypical catcher build, as he appears to be much more lean. As a left-handed hitter, Brantly actually hit the lefties he faced pretty well. He hit two line drives that probably should have been hits, but he still managed to go 2 for 5. Behind the plate, Brantly let a few balls get passed and he appeared to have some trouble communicating with Omar Poveda, but other than that he looked solid. Unfortunately, I didn't get a pop time on Brantly's release and throw to second, but his arm looked like his best defensive feature.

Brantly is probably going to be a backup catcher long-term or a second-division starter behind the plate.

Jose Duarte, CF: Jose Duarte will be lucky if he develops into a fourth outfielder at the major league level. However, that doesn't mean he's not fun to watch. Signed by the Marlins as a minor-league free agent in 2010, Duarte is known for his speed and defense. Duarte is no longer as fast as he was last year and when he was younger, but he still covers a lot of ground in center field. I found Duarte intriguing because he's not even six feet tall, and well under 180 pounds, yet he still has a huge uppercut in his swing. He's not a player that you'll see in Miami for a while, if ever, but Duarte is an exciting player to watch.

Omar Poveda, RHP: Omar Poveda was the Zephyrs starting pitcher. He has split time between Double-A Jacksonville and New Orleans this year, and generated some interest mainly due to his large frame. For such a big guy, Poveda throws a fastball at 87-88 MPH, and topped out at 90 MPH. He left it up in the zone, and it looked very straight and hittable. Poveda has two things going for him; his workhorse frame, and his plus curveball. Poveda is built sort of like Francisco Liriano. He looks like he could throw two hundred innings a year pretty easily. Poveda's curveball is pretty awesome. It has a lot of downward movement, and he feels comfortable throwing it early in the count. Poveda generates much more swinging strikes with his curveball than his fastball. He had Tacoma hitters such as Justin Smoak and Carlos Peguero looking silly. There has been a tiny bit of hype surrounding Poveda this year. Unfortunately, I don't see how he can turn into a major league pitcher unless he learns how to throw his fastball and changeup for strikes.

Luke Montz, C/DH/1B: Montz, a journeyman catcher who hasn't seen time in the majors since he played ten games for the Nationals in 2008, played first base at the game I was at. Montz has split time between catcher, first, and designated hitter this year. He is only hitting .243 but he does have twenty-four homers. Montz, along with Chase Lambin and Jeff Dominguez, help provide a veteran presence to the Zephyrs lineup. At the game I was at, Montz hit two home runs off very soft-tossing pitchers. He probably is going to be a Quad-A player for the remainder of his career, assuming John Buck and Brett Hayes stay healthy. However, if one of those players were to get hurt, the Marlins might choose to bring up Montz instead of Brantly.

Jon Link, RHP: Coming up with the White Sox as a prospect, Linke was throwing 93-94 MPH and was viewed as a future middle reliever in the Chicago bullpen. However, after a trade to the Dodgers, Link never got a real chance in the majors other than a quick stint in 2010. The Marlins signed Link as a minor-league free agent when the Orioles Triple-A club released him earlier this year. So far, in just 3.1 innings for New Orleans, Link has yet to give up a run and he's already struck six batters out. When I saw Link on Monday, he was touching 95 MPH, and he recorded the save for New Orleans. Link looked like a man among boys. It is reasonable to think that if Jon Link can keep pitching like this, he could get some innings in the majors by the end of the year. He's not going to make a huge impact, but it's fair to consider Link a sleeper prospect.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.fishstripes.com/2012/8/8/3225955/scouting-video-and-notes-triple-a-new
-orleans

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Two Different Approaches from Ownership

Joe Capozzi shares Marlins President David Samson’s view point on the Marlins season, with[...]

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http://blog.lovemyteam.com/2012/08/08/two-different-approaches-from-ownership/

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Miami Marlins Should Not Lament 2012 Offseason
Efforts

It was only eight months, but the Miami Marlins aborted their immediate 2012 to 2014 gameplan for a changed approach based on a struggling 2012 season. Gone are Hanley Ramirez and Omar Infante, two parts who figured to stick around for a good deal of that time period, and in come a slew of young players to replace them. It is a fire sale all over again.

Wait, what?

No, the Marlins did not sell off the team in the sort of over-the-top, spectacular fashion they did in 1997 and in 2006. The trades of Infante, Anibal Sanchez, and Ramirez were reasonable moves. Dealing relievers like Edward Mujica and Randy Choate were the sort of plays a non-competing team would make. Trading Gaby Sanchez was an attempt to get any value from him without triggering his Super Two status. This was, by no means, a fire sale.

But the Marlins have struggled in 2012, and it seems the front office is lamenting some of its so-called mistakes of the offseason. At least that is the sentiment David Samson is sharing.

"We set ourselves up for it,’’ acknowledged Marlins president David Samson of a grand makeover that failed miserably. "We paraded around Dallas. We signed those guys. We opened a new ballpark. We said we’re ‘all in.’ ’’

The team’s biggest mistake, Samson said: overestimating the team’s talent level and believing it to be a playoff contender that would lead to the Marlins’ first postseason appearance in nine years. Instead, the Marlins struggled simply to stay afloat.

But as Grant Brisbee asks, did the Marlins really overestimate their talent, or did the team simply not play up to what our expectations were?

Seems like Samson's arguing with himself, but the overall point isn't wrong: The Marlins looked to be a helluva lot better going into the season. The disappointment wasn't isolated to an overly optimistic intern in the front office. Everyone was giddy about the Marlins.

But there's something to be said about Samson fighting for that point. I'm not sure if the fire sale was made with a unanimous consensus, or if it came at the behest of Jeffrey Loria in a fit of regret and second-guessing. The problem wasn't that the Marlins didn't have talent. The problem is that so much of their talented players underperformed expectations.

You see, a lot of parties thought the Marlins were going to be pretty good. It was not just me who predicted the team would make the Wild Card. Twenty-nine of the "experts" ESPN asked to do preseason predictions guessed that the Marlins would make the playoffs. And it was not just the John Kruks of the world. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs thought the team would make the playoffs. Dan Szymborski, who runs the ZiPS projection system, guessed that too. So did Jonah Keri of Grantland. A lot of people, smart people, thought this team would be good.

You know why? Because it should have been good, based on what we knew before the season. And that's why I cannot blame the front office for doing what they did this offseason in going "all-in." Because as far as they knew heading into 2012, they were right.

Hindsight is 20/20

Marlins fans and media need to lose the 20/20 vision known as hindsight. It is easy now, after the Fish struggled through another ugly June, to say that the team obviously was not going anywhere. It is easy to point at a 50-60 team and say "that team clearly isn't any good, what were they thinking?"

But the lens of the preseason said different things. With so many parties expecting a potential Marlins playoff berth, you had to believe that there were legitimate reasons for expecting good performance. Going into the 2012 season, the Marlins had talent that was projected to be good. The Fish boasted maybe two below-average players in their starting lineup. At worst, two of their starting pitchers were slightly below average, but still at the level one would expect from a fourth or fifth starter. This team had a good number of things going for it in terms of projections. Here is what we projected for the team before the season began:

Total Projection (Position Players): 26.5 WAR
Total Projection (Pitchers): 18.0 WAR
Total Projection: 44.5 WAR
Estimated W-L Record: 87-75

This is not out of line with what the so-called experts also said. In fact, this guess lined up fairly nicely in the "Marlins contend for Wild Card" storyline that many people in baseball probably expected.

"Non-Performance"

Obviously the Marlins did not hit their projections. But as we have been saying all season long, they did not just miss their projections by a little. It is not as if a player or two missed their reasonable pre-season estimates. Everyone missed their projections. Five out of the team's eight regular hitters hit below expectations, with a few of them costing us ten or more runs from their expected preseason marks. When you are losing up to 10 or 15 runs on three players and losing runs on two more, it is no wonder your offense is among the worst in baseball.

But the fact that we expected them to be better means the front office could not blame themselves entirely on their failures. Going into the season, they saw a group that could contend with the better offenses in baseball, and that should have happened. The fact that it did not puts the onus on the underachieving players as much as the front office that put them together.

Yes, Larry Beinfest, Michael Hill, David Samson, Jeffrey Loria, and the entire cast of decision makers on the Marlins should not be absolved for assembling a team that did this poorly. But it is not as though they had reason to believe it would do this poorly, because the expectations were rightfully high based on the numbers. The players, it turns out, underachieved and were probably a bit less talented than we thought they were going into the year, but there was no way any front office could have foreseen the staggering number of on-field failures this Marlins team has undergone in 2012.

It Had To Be Done

There is another argument that is just as important as the argument that the Marlins, on paper and after crunching the numbers, had assembled a playoff contender that in the end did not play like one. The Marlins had to do this to drum up interest. It was the right move from a public relations standpoint as well as a baseball standpoint. Did the Marlins front office honestly have a choice with all of their discussion that the new stadium would bring revenue that would allow the Marlins to spend more money and be legitimate free agent market players? Could the team really have gone by the 2013 offseason without making a few splash signings?

No, even the most diehard Marlins fans (and there a select few) would not have embraced years of promises that a new stadium would bring legitimate changes to how this team was run, only to see the team run in a similar cheapskate fashion. The fans already felt shafted by the new stadium deal; a sign of "the more things change, more they stay the same" would have been disastrous publicly for a Marlins team that wanted to re-brand and identify itself with Miami. In order to do that, the Marlins had to make a splash, and they did so and did it (for the most part) responsibly and intelligently.

No Regrets (Or Some Regrets?)

Did the Marlins do everything right in the offseason? Clearly not, and it does not take more than a cursory glance at this blog's offseason posts to see that the team's moves were not all well-received. But was the general plan correct? Absolutely. The team's plan was to fill three holes with appropriate free agent signings and hope that regression to the mean would give the Marlins more wins from Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson. The team expected its veterans to stay mostly on course and its young players to improve a little. If these things happened, the Marlins would be in contention.

When all of your plan goes down the drain, some of that eventually has to be your fault for perhaps overestimating the talent on the team. But for this much to go catastrophically wrong, it takes more than just misjudgment from the front office; the players did their share of failing to achieve what was reasonably expected of them. But because the plan was right and the idea was sound, the Marlins should not regret what they did. Their reasoning was right. Their calculations were right. When they got on the field, all hell broke loose. They shoulder some of the blame, but to say they made grievous errors in judgment for actions that they basically had to make both for baseball and publicity would be wrong.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.fishstripes.com/2012/8/8/3227008/miami-marlins-should-not-lament-2012-
offseason-efforts

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Astros History: Juan Agosto And Relievers In The
'Dome

Now that Minute Maid Park has been open for 12 years, still with its reputation for being a band box (even though it hasn't been for about six or seven years now), it's hard to remember what the environment was like for pitchers in the Astrodome.

Certainly, the stadium didn't seem like it was super pitcher friendly. Center field was a lot closer than it is in MMP and balls in those alleys could scoot. But, for the most part, the Astrodome played like a pitcher's playground.

There's not a better illustration for that than looking at some of the relievers to pass through there in team history. Since Houston moved into MMP, they've had some successful relievers, but they've been high strikeout guys. In the 'Dome? Didn't matter.

For example, let's take a look at Juan Agosto, a reliever for Houston that played for five years. He had an ERA+ of 112, which is very good. It also takes into account his environment, which was very pitcher friendly, so even after adjustment, he's still an above-average pitcher.

But, man, was he the antithesis of what you think of with a dominant reliever. Agosto ended up with just 138 strikeouts in 300 innings in Houston. He also had 111 walks, which is a lot. He had a fairly tiny home run rate for his career, so it wasn't the spacious, dead-ball nature of the 'Dome that helped him. But, that park did contribute to his success.

In his best season, Agosto was 10-2 with four saves in 75 games. Only three guys in team history have won 10 or more games while losing 2 or less, Randy Johnson and Charlie Kerfeld. Both are probably more fondly remembered Astros players.

I think with the volatility of relievers, it was easier to pitch in a place like the Dome, because they didn't have to worry as much about the errant longball. Sure, they gave them up, but taking even a little bit of pressure off a reliever can work wonders.

Maybe I'm reaching here, but after writing up two straight relievers who seemed pretty pedestrian, yet put up great numbers in the 'Dome, something had to be up. Anyone care to speculate on this?

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http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/8/8/3227121/astros-history-juan-agosto-and-reli
evers-in-the-dome

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