Mike Schmidt 2012 Topps Gold Standard 1,500 RBI
Club

Mike Schmidt 2012 Topps Gold Standard – 1,500 RBI Club Of the ‘Gold’ cards that are part of the 2012 Topps base and update sets, I think I prefer the ‘Gold Standard’ version sets the most. The ‘Gold Standard’ set acknowledges … Continue reading →

Read The Full Article:
http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/mike-schmidt-2012-topps-gold-standard-
500-home-runs-club/

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Beyond the Box Score Podcast Returns! Episode #26

In December of 2011, Beyond the Box Score but the podcast to rest after 25 episodes. Be afraid...we've brought it back from the dead! (Zombie Podcast!)

Today's version is hosted by yours truly and has Alex Kienholz, Spencer Schneier and Nathaniel Stoltz on as guests. Among other topics, we touch on the opening of MLB Free Agency, the starting pitching market and the top outfielder available.

I'm going to be completely honest...this is the first time I've done anything like this since some dorm room podcasts for fun back in '08. We'd like to make it a regular thing, but to do so we need to solicit feedback so PLEASE let us know in the comments, via email, via Twitter or whatever, let us know what you thought of it and where we can improve. In the future, we'll probably have only two or three people on, and we'll rotate it among the BtB writers and try to get some cool guests as well.

In the meantime, check it out (it runs a little over half an hour), give us your feedback, and enjoy!

The Lineup

Follow @BlakeMurphyODC

Follow @AKienholzBtb

Follow @BaseballSpencer

Follow @BtBScorePodcast

Follow @stoltz_baseball

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Pick Your Pitcher

Jon Heyman recently posted a list of projected free agent deals this off-season. He utilized an 'unnamed expert' and then also provided his own guesses. You can take each for what it is worth, but I thought the 'unnamed expert's' suggestions might prove for some interesting discussion as we work off our post election hangovers.

You might also want to check out SterlingRice's FanPost of several days ago that offers some additional speculation on the subject.

The Ervin Santana deal is in place and the Royals are stuck with it. Knowing that and taking the rather large leap that Heyman's expert is close on the projected price tag, how would you proceed if David Glass handed you the reigns to the Kansas City Royals?

Your options:

• Zack Greinke - 6 years/$147 million
• Anibal Sanchez - 4/$70
• Kyle Lohse - 4/$64
• Edwin Jackson - 3/$37
• Ryan Dempster - 3/$33
• Joe Saunders - 3/$25
• Brandon McCarthy - 2/$22
• Jeremy Guthrie - 2/$14
• Hiroki Kuroda - 1/$14
• Shaun Marcum - 1/$10.25
• Dan Haren - 1/$10
• Kevin Correia - 2/$10
• Scott Baker - 1/$6.5

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Wednesday Rockpile: Looking For Sunshine

It's a depressing time of year for baseball fans. Early November always brings with it the promise of a long hard winter with no baseball, but this year there's an especially empty feeling for Rockie fans. The 2012 team was so dreadful and injury plagued from the start that it basically stopped playing meaning games in May, leaving Colorado fans with almost a year to starve for something good. Now with the postseason officially over and Spring Training still months away, even the most die hard Rockie fans may have put baseball on the back burner of their mind to remain sane.

Personally, recent events have given me another excuse to put the Rockies on hold. For the last two weeks, hurricane Sandy has consumed me - Not just because I'm in awe of the pictures I've seen on TV, but also because I've seen the damage firsthand. Late last week, I went down to the Rhode Island coast to see the destruction in person. It was a moving experience to say the least. It's one thing to see post storm images from the media, it's a whole different ballgame when you walk down a street that you know is supposed to look a certain way and is instead reduced to mountains of debris.

While there, I met a man who owns a local restaurant on the coast, and I was struck by his optimism. His building was a total loss, he had every reason to be heartbroken, and yet he almost seemed excited about the future.

"You have to look through the debris" he told me as we stood along the water in front of the badly damaged structure. "All everybody sees is the damage, but if you can look through the wreckage, there's opportunity there. We're going to rebuild and make this place better than ever" He seemed sure of it.

As I drove home, I couldn't help but think of applying what the man said to the Rockies. After all, if he could be a little optimistic after a storm like Sandy, I could be a little optimistic after the 2012 season.

"If you look through the wreckage, there's opportunity there."

If you look through all the injuries, there's a chance for Tulo, Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin to be great comeback stories next season. If you look through all the terrible pitching in 2012, there's an opportunity young arms like Drew Pomeranz, Tyler Chatwood, and Juan Nicasio to make a name for themselves and an impact on this team - And if you look through everything that went wrong for the Rockies in 2012, there's a chance for things to go right for the Rockies in 2013. It won't be easy, and I'll concede that the chances are slim, but just like the New England coastline, a lot of hard work and a little bit of luck might get the Rockies shining again by the middle of next summer.

Links

Yesterday afternoon, the Rockies narrowed their search for a new manager down the Walt Weiss and Matt Williams.

Troy Renck goes into more detail about the Williams interview.

Thomas Harding has notes on Josh Outman, Jhoulys Chacin, Charlie Blackmon and more in this informative piece.

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2013 Miami Marlins Offseason Plan: Trade Assets

The Miami Marlins may have some trades on their mind in addition to considering smaller options out of free agency. The team could acquire a few players for a run next season, especially if they find free agency too weak to utilize or the options too limited. If the Marlins do that, we already considered a few trade targets earlier today on the site.

But recall that the Marlins may yet turn to another direction, especially if they do not feel that they can acquire players worthy of a contract past 2013. Rather than try and trade for another asset for 2013, the Marlins could also use trades much like they did at the midseason mark of 2012. The team could instead trade a few of their remaining large one-year deals to interested parties looking for a one-year rental and receive a prospect load or salary relief in return. This is an option in case the Marlins do not feel 2013 is a worthwhile endeavor or if the team cannot acquire the pieces required to improve the team for next season.

With that said, which players do the Marlins have who can be dealt for current or future parts to help the club? These are some of the names most likely to be traded if the team does look for a move.

Josh Johnson

The Marlins have a big decision to make involving Johnson, and it will hinge on whether the team wants to extend him beyond next season. If the Marlins think Johnson is a foundation piece for the next four or five seasons, the team should work hard to extend him to a long-term contract this season before risking losing him to free agency. Had the team considered themselves significantly interested in contending, it may have been worth keeping Johnson for one season with no desire to sign him long-term, but with the team's decreasing payroll, it seems unlikely that the Marlins can make enough moves, even with Johnson on board, to push the team into contention. As a result, one year of Johnson without possibility of extension is not particularly useful to the team.

Johnson would be the most realistic attractive "seller" trade option on the Marlins, as the team has no other major players of interest whom the team is interested in trading. If the Marlins make a move, there is a strong likelihood that Johnson could net them one top-100 prospect in return in a one-for-one trade. It is less likely that, even after a healthy season, Johnson will net the Marlins someone like Mike Olt, who was involved in trade rumors with Johnson earlier in the year. But like the deal for Hanley Ramirez, it is very possible the Marlins can come up with a good prospect who is close to major league-ready without much effort or any salary returning from the Marlins.

Ricky Nolasco

The Marlins are more willing to trade Nolasco, who is entering his final year with the team for $11.5 million, but teams are a lot less willing to acquire the righty starter after three straight seasons of struggles despite good peripherals. At this stage, it would not be surprising if he was more of a salary dump to open up a rotation spot and financial flexibility for free agency in 2013 than a trade option who could net the team assets. Still, a team looking for a fifth starter with some upside could look to the Marlins provided they would be willing to take most of Nolasco's salary off of their hands.

Christian Yelich / Jose Fernandez

These two players are the Marlins' absolute best prospects, and the likelihood is that the team would not trade either of them unless the club can find an elite return. But if the Fish want to pursue one of the bigger names in the trade market such as Chase Headley, David Wright, and Justin Upton. If those players, all of whom are immediate and major upgrades to the current roster's options, become available in a trade involving one of the two major prospects on the team, it would be hard-pressed for the Marlins to not consider the move fair. Both Yelich and Fernandez hold similar trade value close to $15 million, so trading one makes definitely makes sense for any one of the three players listed there.

The only question is whether the Marlins are interested in acquiring a more expensive asset with known qualities for 2014 and on versus keeping one of their young prospects who could develop into a star at reduced prices fairly soon. There is no way to tell whether Fernandez will turn into the next Josh Beckett or Yelich into someone like Giancarlo Stanton, so the Marlins would not be blamed for chasing after the more "sure thing" option. At the same time, Yelich and Fernandez are the best non-Stanton prospects the Marlins have had in years, and both seem like they have the best chances to pan out starting as early as 2014. Should the Marlins consider trading one of their potential future centerpieces for a more guaranteed 2014 option?

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Starters for five

A recent post looked at the combined WAR for Phillie starting pitchers over the past five years. This post willRead the Rest...

Read The Full Article:
http://www.philliesflow.com/2012/11/07/starters-for-five/

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The Wilmington Braves Will Have To Wait

The Atlanta Braves attempt to move their Class High-A affiliate from Lynchburg, Virginia, to Wilmington, North Carolina, hit a major hurdle Tuesday night. A referendum on the local ballot in Wilmington that would have provided $37 million in funding for the new stadium was crushed by voters, with a reported 70% opposing the new spending.

The referendum would have paid for the bonds by raising property taxes 2.5 cents on every $100 in home value, or $50 a year for a $200,000 home.

The Braves and their partner, Mandalay Baseball, issued a statement saying they are disappointing the ballpark referendum was defeated, but did not specify any plans to either move forward with an alternate form of financing in Wilmington. For now it looks like the Braves High-A affiliate will be staying in Lynchburg.

Here is a quote from the Wilmington Mayor regarding the future of baseball in the city:

"There have been other groups that have come in that talked about doing a private consortium that never materialized," said Mayor Saffo. "I'll never say never and where there is a will there is usually a way, but at this point from the City's perspective, City Council's perspective, it's done."

Up until now the Braves have had great success getting local jurisdictions to pay for their minor league stadiums, beginning with Rome, then Pearl, Mississippi, and most recently the debacle in Gwinnett. If they wish to have any more new stadiums for their minor league teams, they may have to find a new avenue to fund such ventures.

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A Detailed Look at J.D. Martinez

At age 24, Hunter Pence broke into the big leagues. In 2011, J.D. Martinez made his major league debut, a full year younger than Pence was in his Rookie season. By age 24, Martinez was one of the most tenured members of the club and was expected to build on early success with a breakout season. Unfortunately, fans have begun to turn on him after a struggle-laden performance that saw him demoted to the minors for a month in mid-2012.

Lest we forget, Martinez had defied the scouts and slugged his way into the Astros’ attention by hitting .302/.357/.407 at AA Corpus Christi in 2010, followed by a blistering .338/.414/.546 performance at the same level in 2011. Once he reached the majors that season, he batted a modest .274/.319/.423, but that was at the tender age of 23. In 2012, the training wheels came off, but Martinez hit only .241/.311/.375, which included two months in which his average dropped below .200.

Is J.D. Martinez the promising slugger whose dynamic performance in the minor leagues indicated that he was a diamond in the tar pits of the Astros’ farm clubs? Or will he continue to slip on the ice of the major leagues to land unceremoniously on his rear?

Initial Thoughts:

Positives: Certain stats stand out when comparing Martinez’ major league seasons. His Strikeout Rate has stayed constant between 21 and 22 percent, an acceptable figure for a major leaguer. His walk rate has increased from 5.8% to 9.1%. On the surface, this indicates a more patient approach than he showed in 2011. Likewise, his contact rate has also risen, to 78.2%. A decrease in his Swing Rate (by 6 points!) shows that Martinez learned to wait for the pitch he wanted this season. On pitches outside the zone, he lowered his swing rate by 6% (29.3%), while increasing his contact rate against those pitches he did decide to chase. Finally, Martinez was much more "clutchy", increasing his Fangraph’s Clutch score from .11 to .71; he hit .306 in high leverage situations in 2012.

Negatives: For some reason, Martinez’ patient approach in 2012 just did not work. His ISO (Isolated Power = Total Bases per At-Bat minus singles per At Bat) dropped even though his Home Run per Fly Ball rate increased. This drop in power is partially because he hit the same number of doubles in twice the number of Plate Appearances, but mostly because his Fly Ball and Line Drive Rates drastically decreased while his Ground Ball rate increased by 15%. Over half of the balls Martinez put into play in 2012 were ground balls, up from about 37% in 2011. Lastly, Martinez may be suffering from a decreased Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Though his 2011 BABIP (.325) isn’t unsustainably high, 2012’s lower .290 certainly helped suppress his counting stats.

Pitcher Approach:

MLB Gameday’s Pitch F/X system indicates that pitchers varied little in the selection of pitch types they hurled to Martinez in 2012 compared to 2011

Left Handed Pitchers (LHPs) are still pounding him with changeups and two-seam fastballs about 50% of the time. As a right handed batter, the two-seamers will tail away from Martinez to create weak contact or a swing-and-miss. Right Handed Pitchers (RHPs) have not varied their approach to Martinez except for a slight uptick in the number of pitches that Pitch F/X classifies as sinkers. Either Martinez faced more sinkerball pitchers this season or else Pitch F/X confused the pitches with other downward-driving pitches like sliders and well-aimed fastballs.

Pitchers are showing an increased effort to generate ground balls through location against Martinez. The percentage of pitches thrown "down and away" has increased slightly but not alarmingly. However, the number of pitches thrown directly below the zone has increased to 37%. In 2012, Almost four out of every ten pitches thrown to Martinez in 2012 were over the plate, but below the strike zone.

Graphing each pitch shows that this approach of throwing as many pitches as possible around the bottom of the strike zone is generating negative results for Martinez. The following graphs show the "Negative Outcomes" that Martinez incurred on pitches for 2011 and 2012, to display how pitchers have attacked him to achieve their success.

In both graphs, there is a normal-looking distribution for a young hitter; which is to say that his whiffs trend toward the "down and away" pitches, while his called strikes are dispersed all around with a very slight favoring of the "down and away" zone. The interesting thing is when the out-generating pitches are compared. In 2011, the "In Play, Out" pitches are distributed evenly (more or less) around the strike zone. But in 2012, out pitches trend a bit towards the "down and away" zone, which indicates pitchers have had more success getting Martinez to hit into an out through location of their arsenals.

The Strike Zone

The most interesting data from Pitch F/X is the strike zone itself. Pitch F/X uses video to measure the top and bottom of the strike zone, where the top is four inches above the belt and the bottom is the hollow of the knee. Assuming the method for calculating a player’s strike zone on each pitch is consistent between 2011 and 2012, Martinez’ strike zone actually expanded vertically by 1.34", or half the width of a baseball. This is significant because a larger strike zone gives the pitcher the advantage—they have more area in which to locate their pitches and perhaps get away with more borderline calls. Martinez’ expanded strike zone could be the result of a more upright, but wider stance, though the difference is so relatively minor (to his height) that it is hard to suggest the change is intentional. In fact, one wonders if the change is due to favoring weak knees, as he has been known to struggle with knee issues in the past. Regardless, if Pitch F/X is not making a mistake, then Martinez’ stance change has helped to tip the scales in the pitchers’ favor.

2011 SZ Top = 3.58 ft.
2011 SZ Bot = 1.75 ft.

2012 SZ Top = 3.65 ft.
2012 SZ Bot = 1.70 ft.

Hit Track

The hit tracker shows that there has been little difference in the directions of balls Martinez puts into play. He is a slight pull hitter, though less so in 2012 (52% of balls in play to the left side of the field in 2012 versus 57% in 2011). This is primarily due to--believe it or not--a lower tendency to pull pitches thrown by LHP’s. One would think that just because of physics, a right-handed hitter would be more likely to bonk a LHP’s pitch to the opposite field, but in 2011, Martinez was a 60% pull hitter. That may be a small sample error though, as he only put 40 balls in play against LHP’s in 2011.

\

Actually looking at the locations of the hits and outs is illustrative:

In one sense, the graphics above reinforce the point that Martinez has been better at using all fields in 2012 in 2011. In the long-term this will benefit him. However, the 2012 chart shows that an increasing percentage of outs have been ground ball outs. This also agrees with the hit data above that reports a whopping 10% increase in the number of groundball outs. Almost 40% of the balls Martinez puts into play turn into ground ball outs, a figure that is incompatible with major league success.

BABIP

So what about BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls in Play? The gist of BABIP is "how many of the balls the player puts into the field of play (i.e. those he makes contact with that are not fouled into the stands) actually fall for hits?"

In the minors, Martinez has never posted a BABIP below .353 (excluding a short stint in 2012), and his average is actually around .380. This is an astronomically high figure and won’t translate to the major leagues, but the takeaway here is that Martinez is a guy who should be able to sustain a BABIP in the majors that is above league-average. His .325 in 2011 does not seem unreasonable with that backdrop.

However, for whatever reason (more ground balls, better defensive opponents, bad luck), Martinez’ dropped to a BABIP of .290. .290 is close to league average but low for Martinez.

Martinez’ 2012 HR/FB rate was about the same as 2011, his K% is about the same, and the sac fly number is so small it hardly counts. So the only thing that can significantly impact his BABIP is the number of walks he’s taking (decreasing his At Bats with respect to Plate Appearances) and the number of hits that fall.

If Martinez had the same BABIP in 2012 as he had in 2011, and everything stayed constant except for the number of hits (a not unreasonable qualifier to put on this experiment), Martinez would have logged 105 hits instead of 95. His .266 batting average would have looked more acceptable, and it’s reasonable to expect that a few of those would have gone for extra bases. Given that, wouldn't Astros fans be happier with a .266/.330/.410 slash line from their 24-year-old Left Fielder in 2012?

Conclusions

With the information above, I conclude that Martinez should be given another legitimate shot at holding down the full-time Left Field job for the 2013 Astros. His statistics improved in many places, namely contact rate and walk rate, and some of the numbers indicate that he perhaps should have been more successful than he actually was last season.

His struggles in 2012 appear to be the result of pitch location by opponents compounded by a slightly taller strike zone, plus a BABIP that is well below his career values. All of these issues have resulted in a sky-high groundball rate that led to a lower rate of successful outcomes overall.

The issues are correctable by examining a ton of video to see if his stance has changed to increase the strike zone size, by laying off of more pitches down and away in the zone in situations where there are not two strikes, working fouling off pitches in that quadrant of the strike zone, and by a return to normalcy of his BABIP.

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Tommy John Surgery and Pitch Frequency, Part I

The other day, I introduced what we believe to be the most complete list of baseball players that have undergone the UCL reconstruction procedure that has come to be commonly known as Tommy John surgery.

With a relatively large sample of major league pitchers on the list, there is ample opportunity for many different studies relating to the surgery. One area of interest for me is the mix of pitches that pitchers use in the years leading up to the surgery, as well as potential changes in pitch selection after the surgery has been performed. Today we will focus on just the first part of that topic: the pitch mix in the years immediately preceding Tommy John surgery.

Method

For this study, I will use the Baseball Info Solutions data that has been available since 2002. By restricting my view to the pre-surgery years, it allows me to include any pitcher from the list that pitched in the major leagues leading up to their surgery since 2002, regardless of whether or not they successfully returned to pitching after the surgery and lengthy rehabilitation period.

The idea will be to compare the average pitcher that received Tommy John surgery to the league average pitcher with respect to pitch frequency. In order to attempt to make this comparison fairly, I will control for two factors that can significantly affect pitch selection.

1. Pitching role: Starting pitchers tend to use a more varied pitch mix than relief pitchers. This tends to be one of the reasons that they become starters, as more pitches are required to neutralize hitters from both sides of the plate as well give hitters different looks when faced multiple times in the same game.
2. Age: As pitchers age, certain pitch types become more prominent. The pitch that I am thinking about in particular is the cut fastball, which often is developed or increased in use as pitchers age and their fastballs decline in velocity.

The following two graphs show the breakdown of average pitch frequency by age for starting pitchers and relief pitchers. They serve to highlight the importance of controlling for these two factors in this comparison process. Note that cut fastball usage does tend to increase on average as pitchers age, while fastball and curveball usage tends to decline.

Data: Baseball Info Solutions, 2002-2012, via Fangraphs

The comparison then will be to contrast the pitch frequency of each Tommy John recipient that meets the requirements for this study to the league average pitcher of the same age that performs the same pitching role. I will perform this comparison for two years prior to the surgery, the year before the surgery and the year of the surgery. For example, if a relief pitcher underwent Tommy John surgery at age 28, I will compare his pitch frequency in his age 26 season to the league average pitch frequency of all relief pitchers from 2002-2012 in their age 26 seasons. I will compare his age 27 season pitch mix to the league average pitch mix of all 27-year old relief pitchers.

Finally, I will compare his age 28 Tommy John surgery season pitch mix to that of the league average relief pitcher of the same age. I will then take the average of all of these differences to form a pitch frequency profile of the average Tommy John pitcher in the three seasons leading up to his surgery as compared to the league average pitcher. Since each pitcher's pitch frequency delta is controlled for pitching role and age, I feel that I can take the average of the deltas of all Tommy John pitchers at this point without any further weighting. For the purposes of this study, I used every pitcher that appeared as a pitcher in the major leagues between 2002 and 2012. I defined a starting pitcher as any pitcher that started at least one game in a given season.

Results

Here are the results of this comparison process:

The table indicates that the average pitcher headed toward Tommy John surgery tended to throw slightly more fastballs and sliders that his league average peer, at the expense of slightly less curveballs and changeups. In effect, for every 100 pitches thrown, one extra fastball and one extra slider are tossed instead of one curveball and one changeup. The difference does not appear to be earth shattering; however, the deltas are in the direction that seem logical.

Fastballs and sliders are the two pitches of the four that are thrown with the greatest velocities. It would seem to follow that they would on average exert more force on the elbow than the curveball and changeup. Per Wikipedia, a 2002 study of very young pitchers showed that slider usage increased the likelihood of elbow injury by 86%.

There certainly may still be some important dependent factors that I did not consider in this comparison process. If you have any ideas about ways to improve this study, please let me know. The magnitude of the results may not be overwhelming, and I cannot make any claims directly from this set of data, other than to say that the trend of the outcome did match my expectations.

In the near future I will look to complete the second, related part of this study, to see if pitchers who successfully return from Tommy John surgery to the big league level alter their pitch mix from their pre-surgery repertoire.

You can follow me on Twitter at @MLBPlayerAnalys.Follow @MLBPlayerAnalys

Credit and thanks to Fangraphs for data upon which this analysis was based.

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Wednsday Rockpile: Looking For Sunshine

It's a depressing time of year for baseball fans. Early November always brings with it the promise of a long hard winter with no baseball, but this year there's an especially empty feeling for Rockie fans. The 2012 team was so dreadful and injury plagued from the start that it basically stopped playing meaning games in May, leaving Colorado fans with almost a year to starve for something good. Now with the postseason officially over and Spring Training still months away, even the most die hard Rockie fans may have put baseball on the back burner of their mind to remain sane.

Personally, recent events have given me another excuse to put the Rockies on hold. For the last two weeks, hurricane Sandy has consumed me - Not just because I'm in awe of the pictures I've seen on TV, but also because I've seen the damage firsthand. Late last week, I went down to the Rhode Island coast to see the destruction in person. It was a moving experience to say the least. It's one thing to see post storm images from the media, it's a whole different ballgame when you walk down a street that you know is supposed to look a certain way and is instead reduced to mountains of debris.

While there, I met a man who owns a local restaurant on the coast, and I was struck by his optimism. His building was a total loss, he had every reason to be heartbroken, and yet he almost seemed excited about the future.

"You have to look through the debris" he told me as we stood along the water in front of the badly damaged structure. "All everybody sees is the damage, but if you can look through the wreckage, there's opportunity there. We're going to rebuild and make this place better than ever" He seemed sure of it.

As I drove home, I couldn't help but think of applying what the man said to the Rockies. After all, if he could be a little optimistic after a storm like Sandy, I could be a little optimistic after the 2012 season.

"If you look through the wreckage, there's opportunity there."

If you look through all the injuries, there's a chance for Tulo, Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin to be great comeback stories next season. If you look through all the terrible pitching in 2012, there's an opportunity young arms like Drew Pomeranz, Tyler Chatwood, and Juan Nicasio to make a name for themselves and an impact on this team - And if you look through everything that went wrong for the Rockies in 2012, there's a chance for things to go right for the Rockies in 2013. It won't be easy, and I'll concede that the chances are slim, but just like the New England coastline, a lot of hard work and a little bit of luck might get the Rockies shining again by the middle of next summer.

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