Trade Bait: Hermida now in Boston

[...]

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11/7 Winter Ball Report

The AFL West beat the AFL East 8-7 in today's AFL Rising Stars game. The only Yankee to play in the game was reliever Mike Dunn who picked up the win for the west: Box Score - Recap

Mike Dunn (W, 1-0): 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, pitches-strikes: 14-11, (0.00 ERA)
(click on pitchers name for PitchFX data)
Check in tomorrow for the weekly recap from Big Guy.

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ort.html

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Marcus and Matt

The Tigers made some roster moves a couple of days ago and the big one was the non-tendering of Marcus Thames.  That makes him a free agent and it ends his somewhat bizarre career as a Tiger.  At times, he looked like he could belt 40 in a year but at other times, he looked [...]

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http://www.tigerblog.net/marcus-and-matt/

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Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 11/8/09

The Saturday free play was ugly as Iowa State was no match for Oklahoma State. Give the Cowboys credit for being ready to play, which I did not think they would be off last week’s smashing at the hands of Texas. The Cyclones lost their QB during the game, but that didn’t impact the result at all. Bad pick, and the college free plays are now 7-4 for the season.

On the service side, I was on Northwestern, Kansas State and Stanford, so I did a great job finding outright underdog winners. But I did a rotten job on the chalk I played, and the result is a very nondescript overall day and week. My play on SMU was just plain stupid on my part, and it’s tough to win when making really bad decisions such as that one. I’ve still got one game pending, and I can really use a winner on that one.

Time for a look at my free opinion for Sunday in the NFL. Going back to the start of the season, I don’t know that anyone could have predicted just how miserable things would be for the Tennessee Titans. Maybe it was a hangover from the disappointing finish to the 2008 season. Maybe it was a pass defense that suddenly turned into a sieve, with the absence on the front line of Albert Haynesworth proving to be more damaging than anticipated. Maybe it was uninspired QB play by an aging Kerry Collins. Pick any or all of those ingredients or some others I didn’t even mention, and it added up to an 0-6 start and what amounts to a lost season.

The brutal start to the season may actually be the catalyst that makes Tennessee a good value play now. They finally have a win under their belts and that should give them some energy and confidence as they to the Bay for a duel with the 49ers.

The Titans would clearly have been the favorite in this game if we rewind the clock to September. I still think they’re the better football team. The 49ers are a hard working bunch and they’re very much in the muddled NFC West picture. But I don’t think they’re especially talented and with the Titans finally going into a game off something positive, I see them having a very good chance to win this contest. I’ll go with the Titans plus the points for this week’s free NFL play.

Back on Monday with some notes from the college weekend.

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Yoani Sanchez: Solzhenitsyn-LikeChronicler of
Communist Abuse

Cuban blogger Yoani Sanchez was beaten up by yesterday by thugs from the Cuban government. Hopefully, even bloggers outside of Miami will find reason to call attention to this latest abuse by the Cuban government.

Thanks to friend of the blog Jose Garcia -- I swear that's his real name not some not some generic Hispanic name I used to hide someone's real identity -- and my favorite and ever-vigilant blogs Babalu and the 26th Parallel for keeping me up to date on what's happening with Ms Sanchez.

I was reading Norman Podhoretz writing about Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and could not help but draw the comparison to Ms Sanchez. I do not mean to compare literary talents, which I am uniquely unqualified to attempt, but rather the courage and tenacity to document Communist abuse while still subject to their retributions.

The following Solzhenitsyn quote was highlighted by Podhoretz and makes me think that Ms Sanchez can relate more than a little:

... I did not belong to myself alone, that my literary destiny was not just my own, but that of the millions who had not lived to scrawl or gasp or croak the truth about their lot as jail birds ... I, who had returned from the world that never gives up on its dead, had no right to swear loyalty to [anything else].

There can be no doubt that Solzhenitsyn in retrospect has come to view himself as an instrument of the will of God ... unbeknownst to himself, he was appointed to rescue from oblivion "the millions done to death" in the Gulag. It was for this purpose that he was sent to the Gulag himself.

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Astros' offense at 3d base and shortstop in the
2000's

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

about 1 month ago: Detroit Tigers shortstop Adam Everett dives for a single hit by Cleveland Indians' Matt LaPorta in the second inning in a baseball game, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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Let's look at what kind of offense the Astros have gotten from the left side of the infield in this decade.   This idea for this post came to mind after I commented on HLP's article about Tommy Manzella taking over the shortstop position next year, making that position defense-first, like it was in the Adam Everett era.  My comment pointed out that Everett generally was accompanied by a stronger offensive performance at 3d base than the Astros received last season.  As I cogitated, I realized that the Astros generally have had "either / or" offensive performance from shortstop and 3d base.  By that, I mean either the shortstop or 3d baseman is a good offensive player--but not both.  That may be by design, or perhaps just the way things turned out.

To examine this tendency, I used Baseball-Reference's OPS+ for the Astros' third base and shortstop positions for each year 2002 - 2009.  The stats are based on the offense of all the Astros hitters who played the position.   As most of you know, OPS+ is a park adjusted index relative to league wide OPS.  !00 is the base, with lessor and higher values reflecting above or below average OPS performance.  I also calculate an average for the two positions to get an idea of the combined offense from the two positions.

Do you detect a pattern here?  Generally 3d base was the stronger offensive position until 2007 (when Everett suffered a season end broken flbula), when the Loretta - Bruntlett offense at shortstop was better than third base, where coincidently Ensberg's offense fell off a cliff.   With the trade for Tejada, the 2008 and 2009 shortstop position dominated offensively and the 3d base position became the weak offensive position.  The combined offense of shortstop and 3d base was decent through 2005, but the positions' combined offensive contribution fell off in 06 and 07.  Whatever faults one might see with the Tejada trade, the acquisition was successful in pushing the combined offense of shortstop and 3d base closer to the level which prevailed prior to 2006.

The only season in which the 3d base and shortstop were roughly the same in offense was 2004.  Mike Lamb and an injured Morgan Ensberg shared time at 3d base, combining for league average offense.  Adam Everett had his best offensive year, with a .706 OPS, but suffered a late season injury, and was replaced by Jose Vizcaino, who had a hot streak.

The best single seasons of combined offense were 2002 and 2005 (when the Astros went to the World Series).  The 2002 season featured one of Geoff Blum's best season (OPS of .807) and a decent offensive performance by Julio Lugo (.710 OPS).   The 2005 season featured an out-of-this-world offensive performance by Morgan Ensberg (.945 OPS), which more than made up for the first of several sluggish offensive seasons by Adam Everett (OPS of .653).   Both of the highest offensive seasons at shortstop were associated with Tejada's two seasons in 08 and 09.   Unfortunately, the Blum - Wigginton platoon in 2008 was only a slight improvement over the tumultuous 3d base situation in 2007.  The 3d base performance declined further in 2009 when Keppinger replaced Wigginton in the platoon.

If Manzella takes over 3d base in 2010, and the shortstop OPS+ returns to the Everett levels of 05 - 06--perhaps an OPS+ of 75-- then the combined OPS+ is likely to be the worst of the decade for the Astros---unless the Astros retain Tejada at 3d base or acquire another offensive upgrade at 3d base.   A return of the Blum - Keppinger platoon would likely put the combined OPS+ at 80 or lower, which would be even worse than the losing season of 2007, which cost manager Phil Garner his job.   Although one can hope for a breakthrough season by rookie Chris Johnson, the more likely scenario is that he would produce an OPS+ no higher than the Blum - Keppinger platoon.

In case you are wondering about the photograph for this article, that is Adam Everett of the Detroit Tigers.

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Braves 2009 Season in Review: Kenshin Kawakami

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Atlanta Braves' starter Kenshin Kawakami.

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Atlanta Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami took one month of the regular season to adjust to American baseball. His April starts produced a 7.06 ERA. While it was only four starts, including one really bad start, Kawakami made the adjustments and compiled ERAs of 3.03 and 3.33 the next two months, but because he still wasn't going deep in those games, he only won 3 of 10 starts in May and June. For the year he had the lowest quality start percentage of any of the Braves regular starters, as only half of his starts were considered quality starts.

The real theme of Kawakami's season was that his good games were really good, and his bad games were really bad. In his 12 losses he compiled a 6.24 ERA, giving up 74 hits in 57.2 innings; but in his 7 wins he had a 2.00 ERA and held opponents to a .196 batting average. He became known as the "dragon slayer" for his ability to pitch his best when his opposite on the mound was one of the top pitchers in baseball.

This "dragon slaying" started in Toronto when KK tossed 8 innings of 3-hit ball to best Roy Halladay. He out dueled fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka a month later with 6 strong innings. He matched Clayton Kershaw pitch for pitch with 7 scoreless innings as the Braves bullpen picked up the win. Then he took down Johan Santana and the Mets by tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball. And in his last start he knocked of the Marlins ace Josh Johnson.

In his final month as a starter (August), Kawakami pitched his best; compiling a 2.87 ERA and 5 of his 6 starts were quality starts. The Braves then made him a reliever for the rest of the year to allow Tim Hudson to join the starting rotation. Kawakami made a good adjustment to the pen. While he added two losses to his record, he did compile a 2.63 ERA as a reliever.

Overall KK finished with a respectable 3.86 ERA, but had a 4.21 FIP, so he may not have pitched as well as his ERA shows, or his bad games and his bad first month could have distorted the FIP number. He had the highest walk percentage and extra-base hit percentage of any of the Braves starters, but he received the lowest run support, so that 6-and-12 record looks bad, but it probably should have been a little better.

It's doubtful that the Braves choose to trade Kawakami this off-season, as they currently have 6 starters and one will likely have to go. He showed last year that he can be effective as a major league starter, and he showed that he can adjust to the challenges of the big league game. He knows now what it will take for him to pitch every five days (in Japan he pitched every 6 days), and what it will take to approach 200 innings as a starter. We saw that he was a tireless worker who takes pride in his craft, and he should arrive next spring ready to re-assume his role in the starting rotation and improve upon his positive games of 2009. Perhaps it would help if the Braves put him in the position in the rotation to face the other team's number-1 starter every time out.

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AFL Rising Stars Game Thread

If you are sitting all alone at home and are bored tonight, flip your TV on to MLB Network at 8pm.  The Arizona Fall League wraps up with their Rising Stars game.  It's a chance to see some young players who could end up being stars in the big leagues in the very near future.

From a Reds perspective, there should be four farmhands getting playing time tonight.  Chris Heisey is batting 4th and playing LF for the home AFL West team.  Batting right behind him is 1B Yonder Alonso.  Zack Cozart is on the bench for the AFL West team and Mike Leake will be in the bullpen.  Since it is a showcase game, I expect we'll see all of them play.

If you can't watch the game on TV, you can follow along with Gameday.  The game is in Surprise, so if I'm not mistaken, there will be Pitch FX for your viewing pleasure.

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Two Remarkably Similar Past Lives

While doing further digging on Gomez/Hardy, I found this:

.278/.339/.399 -- Carlos Gomez, minors age 18-21.271/.332/.405 -- J.J. Hardy, minors age 18-21 (plus 74 PA this year)

.248/.293/.352 -- Carlos Gomez, majors age 22-23.246/.319/.388 -- J.J. Hardy, majors age 22-23

Yes, Gomez has the worse age 22-23 line by a bit, but that's not what I would consider [...]

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http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/11/07/two-remarkably-similar-past-lives/

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Same Card, Different Paths Card #14

?Same Card, Different Paths? ? Card #141974 Topps - Card #598 – AKA – ‘The Ken Griffey Rookie Card’Dave Augustine – With a career that spanned just 29 games and 29 plate appearances, Augustine hardly had a successful major league career.  6 career hits include 5 singles and 1 double.  Augustine has 0 RBI, 0 stolen bases, and 0 home runs!Ken [...]

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http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2009/11/07/%e2%80%98same-card-different-paths%e2%
80%99-%e2%80%93-card-14/

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