Mini Profile of Twins 26th round MLB Draft pick:
LHP Justin Jones

The Twins with their 26th round pick (#790 overall) in the 2012 MLB Draft select Justin Jones LHP from U California.Here are his stats here is his profileVideo is hereYou can find mini-profiles for all Twins' picks of the 2012 MLB Draft here [...]

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Draft Days Insta-Poll: Will Tim Melville Ever
Appear in a Royals Uniform

The Royals drafted Tim Melville in the 4th round of the 2008 draft. He's always been a guy that's had his fans amongst Royal prospect watchers but progress has been uneven. Will he ever appear in a Major League game for the Royals?

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When the Miami Marlins hired Ozzie Guillen, we all knew that the team was getting an old-school manager. Guillen is the same guy who yelled at and demanded a pitcher get demoted because he failed to hit a batter on command. Guillen's batting lineups are as old-timey as they get, complete with speedy players at the top and contact hitters, regardless of quality, batting second. Ozzie Guillen is manager from the gut through and through; he will do whatever he thinks is best for the team without a second thought.

So it is no surprise that in this article by Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, Guillen is quoted saying the following hilariously Ozzie-like line.

Ozzie Guillen is not a disciple of statistics because, as he says, "the only good stat is when you win. When you look at stats, there are more negatives than positives."

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/fish_bytes/2012/06/guillen-stanton-needs-better-protection-in-lineup.html#storylink=cpy

Now, coming from a blog that spends most of its time analyzing the Marlins using statistics, you might think that I would deride Guillen for being so block-headed and ignoring the advantage of statistics versus managing from the gut the entire time. But as I reflected on this comment more over the previous evening, I realized that this thought process might not be a bad thing for Ozzie after all. Let us explore the article and see why.

This piece was written after the Marlins failed to deliver with runners in scoring position following a 6-4 defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies. We mentioned in May that the Marlins should not be worried about this, because adjusting in that situation may only lead to more problems in hitters being unable to bust out of slumps. Since that initial article, the Marlins have pulled their lineup with runners in scoring position up a little, coinciding with an offensive improvement. By May 16, they were hitting .207/.309/.319 in those situations; now the Marlins are hitting a slightly better .228/.329/.337. This mark is still the fifth-worst in baseball (.287 wOBA).

It is here that we hear about the Marlins inquiring about numbers. The wrong numbers.

But after the Marlins went 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position in last night's 6-4 loss to the Phillies, including zero for four with the bases loaded, Guillen instructed bench coach Joey Cora to look at the numbers. What Cora found surprised even Guillen.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/fish_bytes/2012/06/guillen-stanton-needs-better-protection-in-lineup.html#storylink=cpy

These numbers are the exact sort of thing that you don't want your manager to look at. The reason for it is that you are not going to be able to improve a player's swing or approach with runners in scoring position, or in particular situation for that matter. This is especially true when you have such a small sample size to work with that you do not know whether this is a true-talent issue or a real problem. Hanley Ramirez has a career .352 wOBA with runners in scoring position in a whopping 810 PA versus an overall .383 wOBA in almost 4000 PA. With a runner at second, which sample would you guess is more likely to be predictive, the smaller 810 PA sample or the huge career sample? The same goes for Omar Infante, who has a career .315 wOBA with runners in scoring position in 809 PA versus a career .314 wOBA.

The only thing you want your players to do is try and hit their way out of those types of fluky slumps. We are talking about making judgments on players based on 40 to 60 PA within one season. In terms of the numbers, anything can happen in that short period of time, so overly concerning yourself about these numbers is exactly what a bad manager might do.

The Hidden Advantage

And this where Ozzie Guillen's hidden advantage lies: he does not make decisions based on the numbers. Whether the stats are done right, as they often are in analysis on this site, or whether they are improper, like looking at batting average with runners in scoring position or individual matchup numbers, Guillen simply does not listen to them.

When Guillen was asked if he had given any thought to moving Morrison in the No. 2 spot, where he batted .320 as a rookie in 2010, the manager said he didn't think he would perform any better there than he has been in the No. 5 position. On the other hand, Guillen said it's imperative that Morrison break out of his slump.

"We've got to get somebody to start swinging the bat better behind Stanton," Guillen said. "We have to figure out who. But you look around....nobody's swinging the bat well. Nobody."

Here, Guillen basically says that tinkering with the lineup will do nothing to improve a player, which is right in line with what we would expect. He also mentions that the important thing is not that the Marlins find a right slot for Morrison, but rather that Morrison simply gets out of his slump. Later in the article, he basically makes the argument to stay the course and allow the bats to wake up rather than to turn to tinkering with the lineup. This is essentially an appeal to simple regression to the mean, which is exactly what you want to hear from a manager.

This is where Ozzie Guillen's stubborn insistence on avoiding numbers comes to our advantage, as he can easily avoid managing based on small samples and bad numbers that do not give any information. We hear all the time about managers inserting players into the lineup based on them having gone, say, 10-for-17 against a certain starting pitcher. Those managers build lineups based on those numbers, and those managers would be terribly wrong. Similarly, other managers may have panicked and shifted the lineup around or even benched a player for struggling with runners in scoring position. Those managers would also be wrong.

But Ozzie Guillen does none of the above. He listens to none of these numbers. Whether good or bad, statistics are not a part of Guillen's repertoire of managing analysis. And the honest truth is that most managers in baseball have no interest in numbers. Very few managers listen enough to their advanced analysis guys in the front office. Most of them are intent on managing their own style. So what if Guillen does not know how to build a proper lineup? Fredi Gonzalez never knew. Neither did Edwin Rodriguez. Jack McKeon did not either. We lose very little by not building an efficient lineup, because 80 percent of baseball is not doing it either. But any number of those previous managers might have thought that a player who was 1-for-15 versus a pitcher might be worth a benching. Guillen would not even know that, and that's a good thing.

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Carlos Beltran Houston Astros Fan Nemesis

It amazes me that to do this day Carlos Beltran still gets booed in Minute Maid Park every time he comes to the plate.

I was reminded of this when Beltran strode to the plate in the ninth inning of what should of been an easy win for the Astros Tuesday night. The Cardinals were making a strong case for a comeback after getting a couple of runs off David Carpenter and then Matt Adams, a 2009 23rd round draftee by Jeff Luhnow, greeting Brett Myers with a two-run homerun as he entered the game to make it a 9-8 contest.

Beltran strode to the plate with the Cardinals down a run and an opportunity to strengthen his vilification in Houston. He would pop-out to third basemen Chris Johnson and as he jogged back to the dugout I noticed he kept his head down as the crowd cheered at his misfortune. At that point I began to wonder if the vilification was warranted.

I've heard announcers say that the negative reaction when Beltran steps up to the plate is unwarranted. He was a big contributor to one of the greatest Astros teams in franchise history, by providing highlight reel catches and bombs.

Acquired for Octavio Dotel and John Buck Beltran hit .258/.368/.559, stole 28 bases and hit 23 homeruns in 90 games with Houston. He upped that by having one of the greatest postseason's ever batting .455/.500/1.091 with four homeruns in the NLDS and then .417/.563/.958 with another four runs in the NLCS.

As you know the 2004 Astros team fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games.

I remember being excited about the trade an excitement only matched by the 1998 trade that brought Randy Johnson to Houston. I just hoped that history wasn't going to repeat itself. I stayed glued to the hot stove news, scrounging and consuming any information I could get on the negotiations.

All the articles and quotes I read indicated that Carlos Beltran didn't care as much about money as he cared about joining a winning organization. Apparently that meant the New York Yankees, after apparently they passed Beltran and Scott Boras went looking for suitors. He would eventually end with the New York Mets.

Those comments about joinning a winning organization have really stuck with me through out the years. The Astros had been a game away and more specifically a Jim Edmonds catch away from the World Series. The city of Houston embraced him with full force and hoped that embrace would be enough to keep him here in Houston.

Instead of being the face of a franchise, in Houston his name could of been lost among the other stars on the team: Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Brad Lidge, Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. He wouldn't be relied on to carry the team and wouldn't have to face the scrutiny of a fan base looking to blame someone if the team faltered. Houston was a perfect fit for him, but his desire to play in New York apparently trumped that.

The Astros put up a good fight in negotiations. Yes, the difference in offers between New York and Houston were substantial but so is the cost of living in New York and Houston. The end result, however, was that the Astros didn't offer Beltran enough. He would instead go to New York and play well, but suffered injuries and the scrutiny of a New York fan base.

Ironically, for Houston, three years later they would get in another bidding war with the New York Mets this time winning and securing the service of Carlos Lee who would set the organization back several years. In 2008 alone Beltran posted a 7.6 fWAR which is more than Lee produced in WAR for 2007, 3.4 fWAR, AND 2008, 3.6 fWAR. McLane gets his share of the blame for going after the wrong guy.

In the end though it was Carlos Beltran's decision to spur the southern hospitality of Houston for the flashing lights of New York, and thus he turned his back on a fan base that had full embraced him, for one that never fully appreciated him. He said he wanted to be on a winning team, but then chose a team coming off a 71-91 year. For Astro fans that hurts.

The Mets would turn it around and reach the post season in 2006, but the everlasting memory of Beltran, for Mets fans, is taking that final pitch of the NLCS for a strike. Forget that he hit .296/.387/.667 in that NLCS and was a big reason why they were in the NLCS in first place (7.9 fWAR for the 2006 season), the lasting memory of him striking out is one that burns in the memories of Mets fans.

The Astros did well despite losing Beltran, reaching the World Series in 2005, but it was all down hill from there. And I'm sure many like minded fans like myself have played through several of the could have been scenario's if Beltran had stayed in Houston. Do the Astros get swept in 2005? Do the Astros make the post season in 2006? Do the Astros sing Carlos Lee in 2007? His decision had a profound negative impact on the organization.

Is it fair? Probably not.

I'm not a big proponent of booing, I don't think it accomplishes anything. If I ever get to a game with Carlos Beltran at the plate I probably wouldn't boo, but I also wouldn't blame the Astro fan sitting next to me for doing it. Drayton McLane and the previous front offices are largely to blame for the predicament the Astros are currently in, but what started it all was a player that the city of Houston full embraced deciding they weren't worth his time.

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Atlanta Braves 2012 MLB Draft Results: Rounds
16-25

Day three of the MLB First Year Player Draft, and the picks come fast and furious today. Many of these players will not sign, or will be difficult for the Atlanta Braves to sign, but there are always one or two interesting picks on day three.

Fernelys Sanchez, Outfield
16th Round, 509 Overall
The Braves dip back into the high school ranks to open the third day of the draft. He was ranked as the 302nd best prospect by Baseball America, and fell this low in the draft likely because of broken fibula in his left leg that he suffered while sliding back into a bag earlier this year. When healthy he's one of the fastest players in the draft, with plus-plus speed and plus range in center field. At 6-foot-4 he's got a good frame for baseball, but there's still a question about how his bat will play at the next level. If he signs, and if he can hit, he could have a huge ceiling.

Chase Anselment, Outfield
17th Round, 539 Overall
A Junior left fielder from the University of Washington, also played a lot of catcher throughout his collegiate career. He's a power hitter who also hits for average and isn't afraid to go the other way. He was one of the top prospects in the wood bat West Coast league in 2010, leading the league in home runs, but he didn't fare so well last year in the Cape Cod League. Here is some video of him hitting some home runs in the WCL. This pick represents the Braves desire to add power to their system, but we'll have to wait and see whether or not his power can translate to the pros.

Ross Heffley, Second Base
18th Round, 569 Overall
The Braves dip back into Brookwood High School in Snellville, Georgia. Heffley spent his prep years there, and the Braves draft him as a Senior out of Western Carolina University. This short, 5-foot-8 second baseman was a standout at WCU, earning All-American honors last year. He hits for a high average, gets on base well, and doesn't strike out much (35 BB vs. 14 SO this year). He has some Dan Uggla-lite pop in his bat, and good speed on the bases, as well as a strong throwing arm at second. This continues a solid string of picks for the Braves in recent years of good-hitting second basemen.

Reviews for the 19th through 25th picks are after the jump...

Levi Hyams, Second Base
19th Round, 599 Overall
One good second baseman deserves another, so sayeth the Braves draft room. This time though, he's a little taller at 6-foot-2. He's also the second Levi the Braves have taken in this draft. Hyams is a Senior at UGA, so there again, second UGA player taken in the draft. Levi slumped horribly at the plate his Senior season, but was still a .300 career hitter at UGA. He's a solid hitter for average with some gap power when he's going right and using the whole field. Solid pick for the Braves, as he'll provide some good leadership and veteran college experience in the Atlanta system.

Eric Garcia, Shortstop
20th Round, 629 Overall
The Junior shortstop from Missouri is the teammate of Braves fifth-round pick Blake Brown, and tied Brown for the team lead in stolen bases this season. He was recently named the Most Outstanding Player of the Big 12 Baseball Tournament, helping Missouri win the Tourney. He's a decent, but not great, hitter, and an above average defender at shortstop. Solid organizational pick, though I wonder if he'll return to school for his Senior year and try to raise his draft stock.

Jeremy Fitzgerald, Right-Handed Pitcher
21st Round, 659 Overall
Out of Tennessee Wesleyan, this Junior pitcher was drafted two years ago by the Cubs in the 38th round from Patrick Henry Junior College. Articles at the time seemed to indicate he was excited to go pro, but that apparently didn't work out. He seemed to be a pretty highly rated player coming out of high school and Junior College, but I can't find any scouting reports on him recently. He was named the Appalachian Athletic Conference Pitcher of the Year, and put up pretty good numbers at TWC. You can follow him on Twitter @Jwfitz4.

Shae Simmons, Right-Handed Pitcher
22nd Round, 689 Overall
An undersized Junior righty starter from Southeast Missouri State University, Simmons has a solid three-pitch mix. As a starting pitcher his fastball sits in the low 90s, but fades at the end of games, leading some to believe that his future is as a reliever. As a reliever last year in Summer ball, his fastball sat in the mid-90s, touching 96mph. He also has a hard slider and a tumbling changeup, all with a max-effort delivery that can at times lead to some wildness.

Kevin McKague, First Baseman
23rd Round, 719 Overall
This is the second time the Braves have drafted McKague, a Senior at West Point. They selected him with the 50th pick in last year's draft. He was the Black Knight's shutdown closer for several years, but an injury limited his season last year, and he took a medical red shirt to come back for one more season, where he was again a shutdown closer. Of course, as the Knight's first baseman, he also led the team in hitting. Yesterday he found out that he was one of five semifinalists for the 2012 John Olerud Two-Way Player of the Year Award. The Braves have a history of drafting players from West Point, having drafted and signed reliever Matt Fouch in 2010, before he had to leave to fulfill his two-year service requirement. McKague looks like a talented pitcher, even if the Braves have to wait a couple of years before they can really get him into their organization.

Michael Flores, Right-Handed Pitcher
24th Round, 749 Overall
This kid is tall, 6-foot-9 tall. But he's only a Freshman at Grossmont College in California, and does not seemed to have harnessed his size yet, as his stats don't reflect much success this past season. If he signed with Atlanta, he would be a work in progress, but at 6-foot-9 he would be an impressive work in progress. (Interestingly enough, the Braves already have a player named Michael Flores in their system, a left-handed pitcher on their Dominican team. He's only 6 feet tall.)

Brandon Rohde, Left-Handed Pitcher
25th Round, 779 Overall
Rohde is a 6-foot-3 lefty from Central Washington University. He was a second-team All Conference pitcher last year, but seemed to struggle at times this year. He's a Senior, so he's likely to sign and get some time in the Braves system.

Reviews of the remaining Braves draft picks will be posted later tonight.

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Atlanta Braves (30-25) @ Miami Marlins (31-24)
June 6th, 7 PM EST (Game 56)

Worst loss of the season. That is what last night’s game felt like. For whatever reason, the Marlin franchise continues to struggle against the Atlanta Braves. The team got shutout on a brilliant performance by Tim Hudson and the Braves offense score eleven runs on the back of their star second baseman, Dan Uggla. Marlins [...]

Read The Full Article:
http://marlinmaniac.com/2012/06/06/atlanta-braves-30-25-miami-marlins-31-24-june-
6th-7-pm-est-game-56/

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Wade Boggs 2000 Topps Chrome

Wade Boggs 2000 Topps Chrome I am a Wade Boggs fan, no doubt about that.  And most of my great memories of Boggs are from his days with the Boston Red Sox. Still, he collected his only Gold Glove Award … Continue reading →

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http://bapple2286.wordpress.com/2012/06/06/wade-boggs-2000-topps-chrome/

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Mini Profile of Twins 25th round MLB Draft pick:
SS Joel Licon

The Twins with their 24th round pick (#760 overall) in the 2012 MLB Draft select Joel Licon, SS from Orange Coast Col, CAHere is an earlier bio from LMUVideo is hereYou can find mini-profiles for all Twins' picks of the 2012 MLB Draft here [...]

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Mini Profile of Twins 24th round MLB Draft pick:
C Jose Favela

The Twins with their 24th round pick (#730 overall) in the 2012 MLB Draft select Jose Favela,  6-4, 220 pounds catcher from Franklin HS, El Paso TXHere is an article, here is his profileYou can find mini-profiles for all Twins' picks of the 2012 MLB[...]

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Mini Profile of Twins 23rd round MLB Draft pick:
RHP Travis Huber

The Twins with their 23nd round pick (#700 overall) in the 2012 MLB Draft select Travis Huber RHP, University of Nebraska closer.Here are his stats, here is his profileVideo is here:You can find mini-profiles for all Twins' picks of the 2012 MLB Draft[...]

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