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Braves 2009 Season in Review: Derek Lowe

post from Talking Chop on 03 November 2009 01:50:00 PM. © Talking Chop

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Atlanta Braves' Derek Lowe was actually not as bad in 2009 as his overall stats say he was.

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Did Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Derek Lowe really have this bad of a year? Is he really this bad of a pitcher? After all he posted an ERA almost a run higher than his career average, and he led the league in hits allowed, and he didn't even get to that vaunted 200 innings pitched plateau that was part of the reason we signed him.

I started out thinking this writeup would just be several paragraphs of me trashing Lowe, but then I looked deeper and thought about his 2009 performance in a different way.

His ERA was a robust 4.67, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was substantially lower at 4.06. This is not all that surprising for a ground ball pitcher, but it is a big gap. He also posted a batting average against of .301 -- the highest in his career, and part of why he led the league in hits allowed -- but that could have been helped by a high BABIP of .333. These are both similar numbers to what he put up during his last year in Boston, 2004. That year he had a .299 BAA and a .331 BABIP, which caused his ERA to jump up to an even uglier number (5.42) than last year.

We can only infer that these numbers are not the norm for Derek Lowe. His career numbers, even with these outliers factored in are that of a .262 BAA and a .295 BABIP, to go with a 3.84 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. These are much closer to what he did during the last four years in Los Angeles, and closer to the type of pitcher that we believe we actually got when we signed him to a 4-year contract at $15 mil a pop.

This reminds me of Tim Hudson's second year in Atlanta, where his numbers were just a little out of whack and no one, not even Tim, could point to why. I'd like to believe that Lowe just had a bad year, or several bad games that caused his numbers to be skewed away from what they normally would be.

When you look at his month-by-month stats, he had three really good months that were in-line with or better than his career numbers, and three months where the numbers look absolutely horrible. Each of those horrible months, the poor totals can be attributed to one or two really bad games, in which he gave up a significant amount of runs. But in the other games those months, he continued to pitch well until the final month of the season. Here are his month-by-month starts versus quality starts that month:

MonthQuality StartsTotal StartsERAApril353.10May563.76June466.54July453.38August365.08Sep/Oct276.23

While Quality Starts may not be the best judge of a pitcher's actual ability, we can see from these numbers that even in the bad months he was still pitching good games and getting wins. This is probably why it's hard to figure why Lowe's record was the same as Javier Vazquez' record when Javy had an ERA that was almost two runs less. In Javy's case it was a lot of bad luck, bad run support, and bad bullpen, but that luck can cut both ways. Even putting luck aside, Lowe was his typical self for the vast majority of his starts, it was just that handful of starts that crushed his overall numbers.

So don't get too down on Derek Lowe. We still have a very good pitcher, and if other teams are looking at these numbers, perhaps they too will find value in what Lowe can bring them. This also should help to ensure that no one is too terribly crushed if the Braves don't trade Lowe this off-season. He still won 15 games, and there's a reason for that -- he was the pitcher we paid for in most of those games.

At the beginning of this piece I would never have thought I would end up defending the 2009 season of Derek Lowe, but there you have it.

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http://www.talkingchop.com/2009/11/3/1113020/braves-2009-season-in-review-derek

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Jeff Francoeur Has Thumb Surgery

post from The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on 03 November 2009 01:09:13 PM. © The Ghost of Moonlight Graham

I know it’s been a rough couple of weeks for New York Mets fans with the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series, so let’s give them some good news.Mets rightfielder Jeff Francoeur had surgery on Monday to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb. Francoeur had the surgery in [...]

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http://theghostofmoonlightgraham.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/jeff-francoeur-has-thum
b-surgery/

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Pitching matchups for the rest of the Fall
Classic

post from Zell's Pinstripe Blog on 03 November 2009 01:04:13 PM. © Zell's Pinstripe Blog

Here are the pitching probables for Games 6 & 7 of the World Series. Let’s hope we wrap it up tomorrow night, so we don’t need to worry about Game 7.Wed: RHP Pedro Martinez (0-1, 4.50) vs LHP Andy Pettitte (1-0, 6.00)Thurs: LHP Cole Hamels (0-1, 10.38) vs LHP CC Sabathia (0-1, 3.29) **If necessaryPosted in [...]

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http://zellspinstripeblog.com/2009/11/03/pitching-matchups-for-the-rest-of-the-se
ries/

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Heyman Says Yanks Will To Give Damon Two-Years

post from Sliding Into Home: A Yankees Blog on 03 November 2009 12:59:00 PM. © Sliding Into Home: A Yankees Blog

From Jon Heyman (hat-tip to MLB Trade Rumors):

The Yankees have interest in bringing back Johnny Damon -- "We need him," A-Rod said -- but could well get competition from at least the White Sox and Giants. The Cardinals, Braves and Red Sox are among other teams looking for a corner outfielder, though it's hard to imagine him going back to Boston. Before these playoffs, the Yankees were believed willing to go for two years and $16 million for Damon. But that was before his solo double steal in Game 4.

Two-years is probably a year too long, and that's probably too much money, but winning rings usually gets you overpriced contracts. So if they end up closing this thing out I wouldn't be surprised it happen.

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/SlidingIntoHome/~3/QDfU12aKslg/heyman-says-yanks-w
ill-to-give-damon.html

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Vicente Padilla Shot

post from 6-4-2 ? an Angels/Dodgers double play blog on 03 November 2009 12:41:00 PM. © 6-4-2 ? an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Vin Scully Is My Homeboy passes on a La Prensa (Managua, Nicaragua) report that Vicente Padilla has been shot by his bodyguard; he was treated and released at Hospital Metropolitano.

Jon passes on a Diamond Leung piece indicating that the injury was to his right leg, and was "not serious".

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http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2009/11/vicente-padilla-shot.html

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Jobas mom faces up to 20 years in prison

post from Zell's Pinstripe Blog on 03 November 2009 12:32:37 PM. © Zell's Pinstripe Blog

From the NY Daily News:LINCOLN, Neb. ? The mother of New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain faces up to 20 years in prison on a felony drug-sale charge.The Lincoln Journal Star reported Tuesday that Jackie Standley pleaded no contest Monday to delivery of a controlled substance in Lincoln, Neb. Sentencing is set for Dec. 16, [...]

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http://zellspinstripeblog.com/2009/11/03/jobas-mom-faces-up-to-20-years-in-prison
/

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Should the Braves re-sign Adam LaRoche

post from Capitol Avenue Club on 03 November 2009 12:31:35 PM. © Capitol Avenue Club

Depends on a lot of things, obviously, but what parameters would make signing him a net positive. First of all, let’s look at Adam LaRoche, the player?.LaRoche was re-acquired for Casey Kotchman at the 2009 trade deadline in the hope that he would provide some much needed power for the line-up that had been largely [...]

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CapitolAvenueClub/~3/WrWmBnFs7xY/

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Letter to Cliff Lee

Dear Cliff,Tell Charlie with the managerial face from central casting that you want to pitch both games six and seven. What’s the worst thing that can happen? Your arm falls off and you lose to the Yankees? If you don’t pitch, you’re going to lose to the Yankees anyway. Be the hero we’re yearning for [...]

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http://www.jimwalewander.com/?p=311

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Iwamura traded to Pirates

-According to multiple sources, including Jon Heyman via Twitter, Akinori Iwamura has been traded to the Pirates.
-The deal has not yet been made official, but should be announced sometime tonight. It is not known what players have been sent to the Rays in the deal. It's not expected to be any players of significance.

This deal doesn't make much sense to me for the Pirates. Then again, not much the Pirates do makes a whole lot of sense these days. It seems like the front office is never really committed to one plan. They seem to be constantly walking the line between trying to contend, and re-building. A real head scratcher for me.

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http://www.first2third.com/2009/11/iwamura-traded-to-pirates.html

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The Pittsburgh Pirates should trade Brandon Moss
to the Marlins

The Pirates could use a lefty reliever for the bullpen and they are disgusted with the recent performance of Brandon Moss. With that in mind the Pirates should offer Brandon Moss to the Marlins for Taylor Tankersley. Tankersley is a very talented pitcher who has had some issues with control. If the [...]

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http://www.bucslocker.com/2009/11/03/the-pittsburgh-pirates-should-trade-brandon-
moss-to-the-marlins/

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