Actual vs. expected record using WAR

post from Royals Review on 03 July 2009 01:01:00 PM. © Royals Review

I got to thinking, with the performance of this year's team, what really is to blame for the Royals' sickly performance thus far in 2009? We know that the team as constructed weren't going to be world-beaters, but my sense is that the team has significantly underperformed it's talent level so far.

So, I decided to do a quick and admittedly rough analysis of our beloved Royals. I then wanted to see what our performance looked like compared to the other teams in the league, to see if I could come up with any conclusions.

I took each team's hitting and pitching WAR, then added a hypothetical 24 wins for replacement level since we're at about the halfway point. I then compared this number to the team's actual record and sorted by the difference. Where a team hadn't played exactly 81 games I "fudged" just a little bit by projecting what their record would be for 81 games, so that everybody was on the same level. Another note: since not everybody has played the same number of games, and this was done just prior to the 81 game mark, the results are probably a bit skewed, and the difference is probably a little understated for all teams. However, I was just looking for overall "trends" and then wanted to see what some of the causes might be. Here's the data:

Team

HITWAR

PITWAR

TOTAL

REPL

EXPW

ACTW

DIFF

Dodgers

12.1

9.4

21.5

24.0

45.5

50.0

4.5

Marlins

6.7

6.9

13.6

24.0

37.6

41.0

3.4

Reds

7.0

4.8

11.8

24.0

35.8

38.0

2.2

Padres

5.8

2.2

8.0

24.0

32.0

34.0

2.0

Giants

5.7

10.5

16.2

24.0

40.2

42.0

1.8

Cardinals

8.8

7.8

16.6

24.0

40.6

42.0

1.4

Brewers

12.9

4.0

16.9

24.0

40.9

42.0

1.1

Cubs

4.9

7.0

11.9

24.0

35.9

37.0

1.1

Astros

7.2

4.1

11.3

24.0

35.3

36.0

0.7

Phillies

13.0

1.7

14.7

24.0

38.7

39.0

0.3

Mets

8.2

5.7

13.9

24.0

37.9

38.0

0.1

Rangers

11.0

7.3

18.3

24.0

42.3

42.0

(0.3)

Red Sox

11.7

12.7

24.4

24.0

48.4

48.0

(0.4)

White Sox

6.1

11.0

17.1

24.0

41.1

40.0

(1.1)

Angels

11.5

7.8

19.3

24.0

43.3

42.0

(1.3)

Tigers

11.7

8.7

20.4

24.0

44.4

43.0

(1.4)

Rockies

7.3

11.1

18.4

24.0

42.4

41.0

(1.4)

Yankees

16.5

6.7

23.2

24.0

47.2

45.0

(2.2)

Braves

4.2

11.0

15.2

24.0

39.2

37.0

(2.2)

Orioles

8.1

5.2

13.3

24.0

37.3

35.0

(2.3)

Mariners

8.5

9.1

17.6

24.0

41.6

39.0

(2.6)

Twins

10.5

7.8

18.3

24.0

42.3

39.0

(3.3)

Pirates

11.5

4.0

15.5

24.0

39.5

36.0

(3.5)

Athletics

3.4

9.6

13.0

24.0

37.0

33.0

(4.0)

Blue Jays

12.2

10.4

22.6

24.0

46.6

42.0

(4.6)

Royals

3.9

11.6

15.5

24.0

39.5

33.0

(6.5)

Indians

10.2

4.9

15.1

24.0

39.1

31.0

(8.1)

Diamondbacks

7.3

9.1

16.4

24.0

40.4

31.0

(9.4)

Rays

21.8

7.9

29.7

24.0

53.7

44.0

(9.7)

Nationals

6.3

3.0

9.3

24.0

33.3

22.0

(11.3)

Some brief takeaways-

I was surprised to see the Reds up so high, considering how poorly they played against us.

Not surprisingly, the Royals are near the bottom of this list. Luckily, the Indians have been even worse than we are, thus keeping us out of last place.

The Diamondbacks standing makes sense, given the fact that they seem to have some real talented young players and seem to have severely underperformed.

The Rays being next to last? I don't get that at all.

So, I guess what I'm trying to figure out from this data is, what causes the difference? I can think of three things, but this is probably not all-inclusive, and this is in no particular order:

Random chance
Baserunning
"Non-error" errors, things like throwing to the wrong base, missing a cutoff man, etc. that I'm assuming also don't show up on zone ratings

What else might be a cause? In the Royals' case, I kind of worked backwards, knowing what some of our problems have been thus far, but I'm sure that there are things I'm missing.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2009/7/3/936927/actual-vs-expected-record-using-war

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Might these sorry looking snakes sport hidden
venom

post from Purple Row on 03 July 2009 01:00:00 PM. © Purple Row

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Mark Reynolds does strange things in the field, but his bat is worthy of fear.

Browse more photos »

Coors Field has hosted the least number of games in MLB this year. Finally, the boys are coming home. After having a winning road trip on a treacherous 9-game run through California, Colorado now has a soft 10-game homestand against Arizona, Washington and Atlanta. A strong 7-3 mark at Coors should be the goal at least, and that could set the Rox atop the wild card standings heading into the All-Star Break.

The Rockies opened 2009 with a satisfying series win on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks, picked by many to be the NL West Champions this season. That series seems a little bit less impressive now, as the Diamondbacks sit just a game up on Cleveland for the second worst record in the league. As I briefed Monday, their season has gone nowhere near expected. I'm personally blaming the inhumane negative karma AZSnakePit hastily bought early in the season. Again. And again. And again. (Warning: Disturbing images precede).

Because quite frankly, Arizona can't be this bad. True, they have the fifth worst run differential in the league, so they are pretty bad. But like the Rockies, a managerial change has helped. Seriously. The only difference is the shift is mless dramatic and more importantly has not translated to the W column for Arizona as it has for our Rox.

The Diamondbacks just came off of a miserable 9-17 June, winning only one series. They have lost 10 of 12. It looks really bad. However, a closer inspection brings pause. As Jim McLennan at the Pit points out, Arizona was outscored by only four runs in June under AJ Hinch, and nearly every team statistic improved from Bob Melvin's 9-13 April. They were 2-6 in one-run June games, then went out and lost consecutive one-run affairs to Cincinnati to open July. In fact, six of their last eight losses have been by one run, pushing their season record to 10-15 in onesies, the 15 losses being an MLB most.

Other than their one-run woes slightly skewing their record, also beware of their strange home/road splits. The D-Backs are 13 games below .500 at Chase Field, but are nearly a .500 team (4 games below) on the road. Perhaps their young hitters falter in front of their dissatisfied fans. Also note we draw Max Scherzer and Dan Haren in the series, easily their top two starters.

To be clear, Arizona is a legitimately bad team, and the Rockies are clearly head and shoulders above them. Just recognize this team has a lot more talent than its record, and this could be a trap series.

This will be the first time Arizona visits Coors Field. The series April 20-22 originally scheduled for Coors Field was swapped out with Chase, so this will be the first of three consecutive series at Coors between the two clubs.

As already noted, AZ Snakepit is the Diamondbacks' SBNation blog. Go haze the hibernating DBacksSkins. And don't worry, they've retired the act of threatening cute animals.

Arizona Diamondbacks (31-48, L2, 5th)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: D-

Diamondbacks have struck out 623 times in 2009, good for 2nd MLB, which is probably not surprising on a team that features Khris Young and Special K. That contributes to a .245 average, worse than every MLB club other than Oakland or San Diego. League -verage slugging brings thweir wOBA to 22nd at .317 (think Ian Stewart) - this despite playing in possibly the best offensive parks in MLB. Chase Field has a one year 108 park factor, just higher than its 107 multi-year rating. Bad offensive numbers in a launching pad. Yeah, that's bad.

They have scratched out 341 runs, 19th in the majors, though they've managed only two runs and six hits in their last two games. Their Fangraphs hitting value puts them at -41.9 runs, fifth worst in the majors.

LINEUPAvgHRRBIOBPSLGwOBAFelipe Lopez -2B.304416.358.413.341Stephen Drew- SS.248531.309.399.303Justin Upton -RF.3151445.394.568.416Mark Reynolds - 3B.2702156.357.554.392Gerardo Parra - LF.261324.302.400.295Chris Young - CF.195618.278.364.291Miguel Montero - C.252416.339.381.318Chad Tracy -1B.202417.265.370.270

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one strong super stud star (Upton), one strong All-Star (Reynolds), one above average hitter (Lopez), two below average (Montero and Drew), and three flat out terrible hitters (Parra, Young, and Tracy). Tracy has done nothing since the opening series, and Lopez used all his power Opening Day. Parra is new in LF, filling in for Eric Byrnes who broke his hand but was terrible anyway in replacing the ill Conor Jackson, who was also ridiculously bad.

Luke Carlin (0-5) is the backup catcher with Chris Snyder on the shelf. He may start tonight against lefty Jorge de la Rosa. Alex Romero (.273, 0, 0) is the lone backup OF, while IF's Tony Clark (.200, 4, 10), Ryan Roberts (.255, 0, 5) and Augie Ojeda (.234, 1, 10) fill out the bench.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: B

We draw the the D-Backs top two starters in Dan Haren and Max Scherzer in addition to "6th" starter Yusmeiro Petit, so the cold Rockies bats don't really get a break despite facing MLB's 22nd ranked pitching staff by ERA. Petit is terrible, but according to StatCorner, the dropoff from DanMax to anyone else is vast regardless. Their bullpen has the 28th worst ERA at 4.91, but that's a bit misleading, according to their 3.99 FIP and 4.11 tRA. Do note, however, that closer Chad Qualls has blown three of his last five save opportunities, including one yesterday, part of a June with a 5.59 ERA. Fangraphs claims Arizona pitchers are the 10th most valuable in the league, so they are indeed a threat.

AJ Hinch's bullpen includes Qualls, Jon Rauch, Tony Pena, Blaine Boyer, Esmerling Vazquez, Juan Gutierrez, and lefties Clay Zavada (who gave up his first run of his career yesterday in 18.2 IP) and Scott Schoeneweis. One of those will be sent down to activate Petit, but I'm not sure who.

The D: B-

The Diamondbacks commit a lot of errors. Their 71 miscues rank 2nd to Washington, and by a large margin - 3rd place Florida lags by 12. Their fielding percentage ranks 2nd to the Nats in futility as well, so on the surface, their defense looks downright terrible. However, they have a +2.9 UZR for solid range. Conor Jackson's poor defense in LF has been replaced, and Fangraphs lists their defense as 8th most valuable.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:10 pm MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB 2009 - Max Scherzer5-53.671.398335

W-L ERA WHIP K BB 2009 - Jorge De La Rosa4-75.641.498738

Saturday, July 4, 6:10 pm MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB 2009 - Yusmeiro Petit0-38.031.741910

W-L ERA WHIP K BB 2009 - Aaron Cook8-33.771.335031

Sunday, July 5, 1:10 MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB 2009 - Dan Haren7-52.190.8111315

W-L ERA WHIP K BB 2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez6-73.751.338540

My take: Arizona can steal this series with these pitching matchups. A sweep will be incredibly difficult, but a series win shouldn't be taken for granted, especially if we don't win Friday and Saturday. They better win tonight. I'll be there.

Dan Haren has 15 of 16 quality starts this year, the only outlier being May 23 at Oakland of all places. He has allowed two or less runs in his last 7 starts. Chris Young rebounded from a terrible start to post a .910 OPS in June. Miguel Montero has 8 hits in 20 trips with a home run.

Ice Chad Qualls has blown three of his last five save opportunities and has been scored upon in 5 of his last 11 appearances. Tony Pena has been scored upon in 4 of his last 6. Stephen Drew and Justin Upton are a combined 7 for their last 47.

Bandaid_medium Two LF's are on the DL in Eric Byrnes (hand - 15day) and Conor Jackson ("pneumonia" - 60day). Chris Snyder (back) and Yusmeiro Petit (shoulder) are also on the 15day DL, though Petit is due to come off today. Tom Gordon and Brandon Webb (shoulder) are both on teh 60day DL. If you've missed it, Webb will not have surgery on his shoulder and will try to return for September. It won't be for a playoff run, but it might be for a chance to pitch for Arizona one last time should they decline his option for 2010.

Poll

Do you buy that this is a trap series after coming home from a tough road trip?

Read The Full Article:
http://www.purplerow.com/2009/7/3/936178/might-these-sorry-looking-snakes

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Reds get INF Encarnacion off 60-day DL (AP)

The Reds activated third baseman Edwin Encarnacion from the 60-day disabled list Friday to replace infielder Danny Richar, who went on the 15-day disabled list with a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Wilkin Castillo, who had surgery Wednesday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, was moved from the 15-day DL to [...]

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http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2009/07/03/reds-get-inf-encarnacion-off-60-day-dl-ap/

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Letters From The Iron Horse

"...today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth."

Tomorrow is the 70th anniversary of baseball's Gettysburg Address. Lou Gehrig made that inspiring, and sad speech back on July 4, 1939, in front of a packed house at Yankee Stadium.

The anniversary will be celebrated around Major League Baseball, as MLB looks to raise money for ALS research to help fight the illness that now bears Gehrig's name.

Throughout baseball, players will wear ?4ALS? patches on their uniforms, all first bases used will be auctioned off, and during the seventh inning stretch of every game Gehrig?s speech will be read to the crowd.

ESPN's Outside The Lines has uncovered personal letters from Gehrig's final days and months. Here's the video they posted about the letters and the site where you can read the letters yourself.

While his death was terribly sad, his career was one of the most impressive the game of baseball has ever seen. If it wasn't for Babe Ruth and that stupid disease, we might look at Gehrig as the greatest slugger who ever lived. If you don't believe me, just look at the stats.

He was a lifetime .340/.447/.632 hitter. That's a lifetime OPS of 1.080, which is third all-time behind Ruth and Ted Williams. In 17 seasons he racked up 493 homers, 2721 hits, 1995 RBI, and 1888 runs. Had he stayed healthy the Iron Horse those numbers probably would have increased to 500+ homers, 3000+ hits, and over 2000 RBI and runs scored. The man won two MVPs, and was the Yankees captain from 1935 until his death in 1941. Also, from what I've read, he was a hell of defensive first baseman.And I say all that without mentioning his famous consecutive games streak.

Sadly, I don't think most people realize how great a baseball player this man truly was. Hopefully this anniversary will get people talking about him and open some eyes. Think of Gehrig this weekend, and remember how great he was, because a lot of that Yankee Pride everyone talks about actually came from him.

Read The Full Article:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/SlidingIntoHome/~3/wNYdNGGYxZU/letters-from-iron-h
orse.html

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Friday Pebble Report: Franklin Morales solid,
maybe, Chaz Roe and Drillers pen spectacular, and other teams and players did stuff

Colorado Springs: W 4-2

One big note on the PCL this season to remember: Offenses are mostly terrible. When John Bowker is the leading vote getter for the All-Star game, you have to figure something's up. Basically it's a lower class of AAAA player that seems to be roaming about. You don't have Terry Tiffee or Micah Hoffpauir or several of the other big threats that pitchers had to face last season. As a result, scoring's off almost half a run a game and it's likely that the Sky Sox themselves have the best collection of AAAA hitters this season with Murton and Ortmeier and McCoy and what have you. So basically what I'm saying is that we get reports of pitchers doing relatively well there, and I just don't know how far to trust them. This goes for Sky Sox pitchers as well as those of opponents.

Enter Franklin Morales, who pitched 5.1 innings last night allowing two runs, both off solo home runs, on six hits while striking out five and walking two. Howie Kendrick didn't hit either of those HR's and he's the big legitimate threat on the Salt Lake roster. So Morales gave up the big knocks to light hitting infield scrubs. He allowed other traffic but worked through it. He did limit Kendrick to relatively weak contact, three GB's, one which found a hole for a single, but I just don't know if I'm signing off on this being a good start for Frankie. Really, I know some people are eager to replace JDLR with him, but look carefully please before making that decision.

A pretty decent hitting infield scrub, and part of that premium AAAA collection we have down there, Mark Bellhorn, hit two home runs himself for the Sky Sox.

Tulsa: W 2-0

Chaz Roe was limited to 75 pitches, and got through five innings with them, allowing just two hits, two walks and he struck out six. In three starts since returning from the disabled list on June 19, Roe has pitched 15 scoreless innings allowing 14 hits with an 11/2 K/BB ratio. While lucky to some degree in that stretch, he's definitely looking like the pitcher we've long been waiting for. Let's stay cautiously optimistic and see where he goes from here.

Cole Garner's solo HR (7th on the season) in the second provided all the scoring that was needed, but Anthony Jackson, who went three for three with a walk, added one more in the sixth. Four Drillers relievers added an inning apiece in the shutout, as Edgmer Escalona picked up his first save by pitching a scoreless ninth. His five scoreless innings since his call-up from Modesto isn't quite as impressive as Roe, but nice to see nonetheless.

Modesto: W 8-7

Hector Gomez would be one of those other players that did stuff, some serious stuff, and if I was picky about my SEO, I'd have been wise to try and figure out a way to get his name in the title, but sometimes I just get rebellious. A little, I mean I did put Morales and Roe's name there after all.

At any rate, Gomez had another great game going four for five and leading the Nuts to a comeback victory over Bakersfield. Down seven to five in the seventh, he doubled home Rhadames Nazario and later scored the tying run on a double steal breaking for home from third after the Blaze catcher committed to trying to stop Lars Davis from nabbing second. He doubled again to lead off the ninth and scored the winning run on a two out Davis walk-off single. I believe that's the second walk-off hit this year for Davis, he's becoming quite the master of clutch out there. You'll also note from the ModBee recap that he's great with fans.

Asheville: L 3-4

Parker Frazier picked up the loss to drop to 4-6 on the season, but it was a deep, somewhat encouraging start from him. He went six and two thirds, allowing seven hits and a pair of walks as well as the four runs. Jordan Pacheco, Kiel Roling and Ryan Peisel each had two hits, but most of the other Tourists were cold at the plate.

Tri-City: W 6-5

Sometimes lately it seems like the Dust-Devils are just toying with their opponents, allowing them to get ahead just far enough to feel good about themselves before smacking them back down to reality. Or maybe they're looking for a challenge, like "let's be trailing by three runs in the bottom of the ninth and see if we can score four off this team's closer..."

A Bo Bowman two run single in the bottom of the ninth capped off the four run rally for the D-Devils that saw them also score on an HBP and have a batter reach via error, so just so you know I'm kidding about thinking they actually might have planned this.., I think. Orlando Sandoval hit a two run home run early to put them in the position to rally, and the relief efforts Josh Hungerman, Eric Federico and Rod Scurry kept them in the game after a rough start by Brad McAtee. Ooh, I just remembered that there was a Josh Hungerman article I was meaning to link last month when he signed. I can't remember if I did or not.

Other D-Devils news:

The recap of Wednesday's game at the Tri-City Herald talks to Mashin' Mike Zuanich, as well as mentioning that Scott Beerer's still out with a hip flexor issue.

There's also an article about pitcher Dan Perkins at Delaware Online, who among other things noted apparently pitched against current Dust Devils roommate Rhett Ballard while attending Delaware State.

Casper: Postponed

Read The Full Article:
http://www.purplerow.com/2009/7/3/936845/friday-pebble-report-franklin

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Yankees bounce back, Burnett beats Jays (AP)

A.J. Burnett quickly got the New York Yankees back to their winning ways. Burnett scattered six hits over seven innings, Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez homered, and the Yankees opened the long holiday weekend with a 4-2 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. Wearing jarring red caps as part of Major League Baseball's [...]

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http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2009/07/03/yankees-bounce-back-burnett-beats-jays-ap/

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Talkin' Cubs Live - Cubs vs. Brewers - 07/03/09

Game Seventy-Seven: Cubs (38-38) vs. Brewers (42-37)
Game Time - 1:20pm C.T.
Coverage - TV: Comcast SportsNet - Radio: 720 WGN, XM Radio Channel 183
Location - Wrigley Field, Chicago

Carlos Zambrano (4-3, 3.69/1.33) vs. Jeff Suppan (5-6, 4.86/1.66)

Will Soriano or Fuld hit leadoff for the Chicago Cubs this afternoon? Lou Piniella said Alfonso Soriano would be back in the leadoff spot before Thursday night's game but sounded less sure following another solid performance from Sam Fuld. The Cubs must have a healthy Alfonso Soriano in order to win on a regular basis in the second half. With Soriano not producing it might be better for him to hit lower in the order for a while and ride out the spark that Fuld has given the team.

This afternoon might be a good time to slide Fuld over to center and put Kosuke Fukudome in right. Milton Bradley is not hitting from the left side and is just 1-for-10 lifetime against Jeff Suppan. Right now it is all about winning ballgames ... entering play today there are five teams in the central within three games of first place.

Phil Rogers sparked a lot of controversy following Carlos Zambrano's last start against the White Sox. When Big Z heard about the online poll, his response was "fine, trade me to Boston". For the Cubs to turn their season around the good Carlos Zambrano must continue to take the mound ... and not the bad Carlos that was on full display on the South Side last Sunday.

The Cubs offense must keep it up this afternoon against Jeff Suppan ... but it all starts with Carlos Zambrano and one win at a time.

Read The Full Article:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Chicagocubsonlinecom/~3/IzzD41QQHJ0/2009cubslive77
.php

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Daily Box Score 7/3: Bees, Bans, and the Great
Convergence

Do we live in the era of the Great Convergence? The age-old battle between scouts and stat-heads seems to be subsiding, little by little. The latest evidence of the shrinking divide are Ned Colletti's comments on a sports radio station:I think the[...]

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http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/3/936877/daily-box-score-7-3-bees-bans-an
d

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G77: Rangers walkoff after blown save, 9-7

I seem to have developed a pattern of updating series after they're over, doing all the games at once. I need to get out of that. By the time I get to the third one, my mind has a hard time coming up with something unique to say about the final game. Such is the same here. We won, but all I can think of to write about was how Frank Francisco blew the save, and then we won on a walkoff home run in the bottom of the ninth.

One other thing worth mentioning: Julio Borbon got his first major league hit - and RBI at the same time. Also, from the TV coverage, they didn't show the ball going back into the dugout - that usually gets shown for some reason.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.rangerfans.com/archives/2009/07/g77_rangers_walkoff_after_blown_save_9
-7.html

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The Bees of Petco Park

You may have seen this on SportsCenter last night, but its such an unusual story that its worth a[...]

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http://blog.lovemyteam.com/2009/07/03/the-bees-of-petco-park/

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