Update: Brian Cartwright, Creator of Oliver,
Responds: Major League Equivalents for Cain, Giavotella and Lough

Note: Brian C's response is at end of article.

The Hardball Times (subscription area) has the MLE's based off the 2011 season.  I decided to see how 3 of the most frequent hitters that fans have asked to be called up to the majors, Cain Giavotella and Lough, stand.  Here are their MLE's:

NameABHRBAOBPSLGOPSwOBAFieldWARCain358100.2850.3390.4530.7920.3419.12.3Giavotella43770.3080.3490.4280.7770.339-9.40.7Lough35550.2810.3090.4240.7330.3106.90.5

First, I don't know how much to take faith in the defensive numbers, but they seem to love Cain and hate Gia. Defensive numbers are the main difference in their WAR since they both play equally difficult positions and are hitting the same.

Second, differences in league difficulty and park factors generally seem imply that a player's OPS will drop close to 100 points (or multiply by 0.87) compared to what they are doing in the minors.

• Cain: 0.912 to 0.792
• Giavotella: 0.877 to 0.777
• Lough: 0.843 to 0.733

Finally, if the wOBA numbers are correct, they would near the numbers for Frenchy (0.342) and Hosmer (0.341) and good for 6th and 7th highest value on the current team.

MLE's are not ideal for measuring a player's MLB production. It looks like both Cain and Giavotella deserve a shot on the major league team.

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Brian Cartwright's Response

Several good comments from the readers. Oliver uses all the players over the past 13 years. Some players, for whatever reason, do not perform (good or bad) as expected when promoted. Some change their talent level. Maybe they can't hit a MLB slider, or get too uptight. Specifically what would the SD's be that you are looking for? As one person commented, a single season MLE is a translation of a past event, so I'm not sure what to compare it to for an 'error'. For example, Projections can be compared against what a player actually did the next season. The projections are a weighted mean of recent season's MLEs. You quoted 2011 MLEs for all the players being considered. A better way is to look at the entire four year period we present. The 2011 in-season projection does this according to Oliver's weighting and regression formula, but the reader can also look at the four years and use their own intuition, after Oliver has accounted for the ballparks and level of competition. Here's Moustakas       PA wOBA  BA/ OB/ SA FR  WAR

2008 549  307 238/287/425 +3  0.82009 610  283 231/262/398 +1 -0.72010 534  358 287/325/525 +2  2.92011 417  273 224/277/346 +5 -0.5Proj 608  310 255/294/431 +3  0.8 

Unfortunately, which season does not match the rest? 

He had a monster half season at NW Arkansas in 2010, which is an extreme hitter's park. By level instead of year:       PA wOBA  BA/ OB/ SAA    550  307 238/287/425A+   530  280 228/260/394AA   299  387 306/360/559AAA  486  310 253/286/445Proj      310 255/294/431 The AAA MLEs are very close to the current projection - his bad MLB record (so far) cancel out the good numbers at NWA.  =====================================================  Kila:       PA wOBA  BA/ OB/ SAAA   376  391 274/396/504AAA 1401  346 249/360/420Win   99  345 221/364/398Proj      338 250/347/419 AAA translated to a 346 wOBA, where average 1B is 355 and DH is 360, higher for average starters at those positions.  ===================================================== Cain had a lousy 2009, but last two years are 330-291/349/394 and 341-285/339/452, 2.2 and 2.3 WAR. Looks like a solid MLB starter. Projection still looks at 2009, even though weighted down, and adds regression, so that's 324-275/332/408  =====================================================  Clint Robinson wOBAs 306, 320, 366, 331...average MLB DH 360, considering his fielding runs are -3, -9, -6, -3...only 2010 was above replacement, even though in isolation a 342-280/333/460 line looks good. If that's better than the player currently playing that position, go for it, but the low WAR says it's easy to find someone else who can hit and field just as well at that position C Pena 0.5, Treanor 0.4, Perez 0.3, Kendall 0.21B Kila 0.4 Hosmer -0.2, Romak -0.6 (Hosmer has 335 wOBA proj now at age 21, expected to be in 350's by 2013)2B Giavotella 0.3, Getz -0.5, Arias -0.83B Moustakas 0.8, Navarro 0.0SS Escobar -0.1, Zawadzki -0.3, Colon -0.5, Falu -0.6 (Colon expected to improve wOBA from 291 to 310)LF Gordon 2.7, Cabrera 1.4CF Cain 1.3, Maier 0.0, Dyson -0.6RF Myers 0.3, Lough 0.1, Francis -0.3, Francouer -0.6 (Myer now 327, peak 363)DH Butler 2.2, Robinson 0.3 Expect 20 pt wOBA improvement from Hosmer & Colon, 35 from Myers.Replace Getz with Gia now, make room for Colon in 1-2 years. Escobar good glove/no hit.Put Cain in CF, platoon Melky & Frenchy until Myer comes up (next year?) =====================================================Giavotella

      PA wOBA  BA/ OB/ SA  FR  WAR2008 608  291 251/303/359  +4 -0.22009 561  294 252/304/376 -11 -1.22010 667  330 288/342/417 -10  0.62011 485  339 308/349/428  -9  0.7Proj      324 287/334/413  -9  0.3 2008 and 2009 nearly identical to each other, same for 2010 and 2011. Last two years have over 1150 PA, so a 330's wOBA quite reasonable. (I am evaluating methods which cut off past performance at a set of amount of PAs, instead of a strict four years). However, Oliver does not like his defense at all, consistently getting the same results as he progressed from A to A+, AA and AAA.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/8/3/2341554/major-league-equivalents-for-cain-gi
avotella-and-lough

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Royals Win 6-2 Behind Hochevar

Quick hits:

• Luke was on fire tonight.  7.1 IP, 7K, 1BB, 2R.
• Holland finished off the game by striking out 3 of the 5 batters he faced.
• Navvaro (2 for 3, 1BB) and Pina (2 for 4, 1 double) both got their first starts tonight and had good production.
• Butler hit a bomb in the 7th inning. No distance on the ball yet, but it was a no doubter to center field.
• Gordon is on fire. I am glad the team stuck with him. I need to break down what is different this year, besides the multiple trips to AAA.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/8/3/2343252/royals-win-6-2-behind-hochevar

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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals Series
Recap

 

In a nutshell, the series in Nationals Park ended in a way that most seasoned Braves fans have come to expect. Sure, it has been beat to death that the Nationals suck, and still somehow manage to play the Braves tough each and every time out. But it is undeniably the case, and anyone who discusses Braves vs. Nationals will continue to beat it to death. The Braves went down on Monday night by as score of 5-3, followed by a more extreme 9-3 loss on Tuesday. Dan Uggla's hot bat helped prevent the Braves' first sweep of the season, as Atlanta took game three by a score of 6-4.

When the Braves don’t take care of teams like the Nats, fans can grumble, but it’s the way that the Braves lost these games that is somewhat disconcerting. In the three game set, Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, and Brandon Beachy combined to go 14 innings, giving up 24 hits, 17 runs, walking five, and striking out eight. That line is what some would call "terrible", and for the Braves it’s horrifyingly shocking as well. These starting pitching problems have been around for a week or two now, but three poor outings in one series is a first.

But there are some positives to take from the Braves’ current play. There are two guys on the right side of the infield that are pretty hot at the dish. Both Freddie Freeman and Dan Uggla hit safely in all three games to extend their respective hitting streaks. Uggla’s now sits at 25 games, though it was his second hit of the game, a three run shot that ultimately gave Atlanta the win on Wednesday. Freeman’s streak is now at 18 games, and is sliding under the national radar thanks to Dan Uggla. The Braves actually had their lowest hit total of the series (7) in their win on Wednesday. It is the clutch hitting that is an issue, but with the hits coming, one would think that with the return of Chipper and Heap the Braves will have no problem scoring runs in clutch spots.

All the talk coming into this series, though, was about newly acquired center fielder, Michael Bourn. He played a very respectable series, going 4-for-13, scoring twice and driving in a run. He got his first hit, run, RBI, and stolen base as a Brave in Nationals Park. Jose Constanza continues to play well also, getting five hits in ten at bats. It will be exciting to watch the two speedy outfielders in the coming weeks.

We can hope that the Braves’ starters will get it together against the Mets beginning on Friday night, but it will be the knuckleballing R.A. Dickey that the Braves will have to face. Atlanta currently holds a 2.5 game lead over Arizona in the wild card, but have a solid 8 games to catch up on the Phillies in the East.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.talkingchop.com/2011/8/3/2343181/atlanta-braves-at-washington-national
s-series-recap

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Ellsbury has walkoff hit again with HR (AP)

Jacoby Ellsbury got the winning hit for the second night in a row, homering with two outs in the ninth inning to give the Boston Red Sox a 4-3 win over the Cleveland Indians Wednesday night. Joe Smith (2-2) got the first two batters on groundouts before Ellsbury hit an 0-1 pitch over the wall [...]

Read The Full Article:
http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2011/08/04/ellsbury-has-walkoff-hit-again-with-hr-ap/

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Fister beats Rangers in Tigers debut (AP)

Doug Fister pitched seven effective innings to win his Detroit debut while Alex Avila and Ryan Raburn homered as the Tigers beat the Texas Rangers 5-4 Wednesday night. Fister (4-12), acquired from Seattle on July 30, earned his first victory since May 30 — a span of 10 starts. He allowed two earned runs and [...]

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http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2011/08/04/fister-beats-rangers-in-tigers-debut-ap/

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Chirinos first HR, 4 RBIs lift Rays (AP)

Robinson Chirinos hit his first major league homer and drove in four runs, James Shields pitched into the eighth inning and the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays 9-1 on Wednesday night. Chirinos had a three-run shot off Carlos Villanueva (6-3) during a four-run third that put the Rays up 8-1.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2011/08/04/chirinos-first-hr-4-rbis-lift-rays-ap/

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Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros, Aug 3, 2011
7:05 PM CDT

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Current Series

3 game series vs Reds @ Minute Maid Park

Cincinnati Reds Red Reporter
@ Houston Astros The Crawfish Boxes

Monday, Aug 1, 2011, 7:05 PM CDT
Minute Maid Park

Bronson Arroyo vs Bud Norris

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 95.

 

Complete Coverage >

Tue 08/02 7:05 PM CDT Wed 08/03 7:05 PM CDT

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Jordan Lyles

#41 / Pitcher / Houston Astros

Height: 6-4

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 19, 1990

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Dontrelle Willis

#50 / Pitcher / Cincinnati Reds

Height: 6-4

Weight: 225

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jan 12, 1982

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Read The Full Article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2011/8/3/2309200/cincinnati-reds-at-houston-astros-a
ug-3-2011-7-05-pm-cdt

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Freddie vs. Jason

They play for the same team, so this is just about perception than anything of particular value, but this is something I just had to comment on. There are people out there, and you actually may be one of them, that think Freddie Freeman is better and will have a better career than Jason Heyward. [...]

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CapitolAvenueClub/~3/b6N-pl9-gAs/

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Konerko hopes to return Thursday (AP)

White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko is hoping to return to the lineup Thursday after being sidelined by a bruised left calf. Konerko hit in the batting cage and ran on an underwater treadmill before Chicago hosted the New York Yankees on Wednesday night. He says his calf is still tender and probably will be [...]

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http://www.mlbnewsblog.com/2011/08/04/konerko-hopes-to-return-thursday-ap/

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CC Sabathia Named AL Pitcher of the Month of July

Read The Full Article:
http://bronxbaseballdaily.com/2011/08/cc-sabathia-named-al-pitcher-of-the-month-o
f-july/

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