Actual vs. expected record using WAR

I got to thinking, with the performance of this year's team, what really is to blame for the Royals' sickly performance  thus far in 2009? We know that the team as constructed weren't going to be world-beaters, but my sense is that the team has significantly underperformed it's talent level so far.

So, I decided to do a quick and admittedly rough analysis of our beloved Royals. I then wanted to see what our performance looked like compared to the other teams in the league, to see if I could come up with any conclusions.

I took each team's hitting and pitching WAR, then added a hypothetical 24 wins for replacement level since we're at about the halfway point. I then compared this number to the team's actual record and sorted by the difference. Where a team hadn't played exactly 81 games I "fudged" just a little bit by projecting what their record would be for 81 games, so that everybody was on the same level. Another note: since not everybody has played the same number of games, and this was done just prior to the 81 game mark, the results are probably a bit skewed, and the difference is probably a little understated for all teams. However, I was just looking for overall "trends" and then wanted to see what some of the causes might be. Here's the data:

Team

 HITWAR

 PITWAR

 TOTAL

 REPL

EXPW

 ACTW

 DIFF

Dodgers

       12.1

          9.4

        21.5

        24.0

        45.5

        50.0

          4.5

Marlins

         6.7

          6.9

        13.6

        24.0

        37.6

        41.0

          3.4

Reds

         7.0

          4.8

        11.8

        24.0

        35.8

        38.0

          2.2

Padres

         5.8

          2.2

          8.0

        24.0

        32.0

        34.0

          2.0

Giants

         5.7

        10.5

        16.2

        24.0

        40.2

        42.0

          1.8

Cardinals

         8.8

          7.8

        16.6

        24.0

        40.6

        42.0

          1.4

Brewers

       12.9

          4.0

        16.9

        24.0

        40.9

        42.0

          1.1

Cubs

         4.9

          7.0

        11.9

        24.0

        35.9

        37.0

          1.1

Astros

         7.2

          4.1

        11.3

        24.0

        35.3

        36.0

          0.7

Phillies

       13.0

          1.7

        14.7

        24.0

        38.7

        39.0

          0.3

Mets

         8.2

          5.7

        13.9

        24.0

        37.9

        38.0

          0.1

Rangers

       11.0

          7.3

        18.3

        24.0

        42.3

        42.0

         (0.3)

Red Sox

       11.7

        12.7

        24.4

        24.0

        48.4

        48.0

         (0.4)

White Sox

         6.1

        11.0

        17.1

        24.0

        41.1

        40.0

         (1.1)

Angels

       11.5

          7.8

        19.3

        24.0

        43.3

        42.0

         (1.3)

Tigers

       11.7

          8.7

        20.4

        24.0

        44.4

        43.0

         (1.4)

Rockies

         7.3

        11.1

        18.4

        24.0

        42.4

        41.0

         (1.4)

Yankees

       16.5

          6.7

        23.2

        24.0

        47.2

        45.0

         (2.2)

Braves

         4.2

        11.0

        15.2

        24.0

        39.2

        37.0

         (2.2)

Orioles

         8.1

          5.2

        13.3

        24.0

        37.3

        35.0

         (2.3)

Mariners

         8.5

          9.1

        17.6

        24.0

        41.6

        39.0

         (2.6)

Twins

       10.5

          7.8

        18.3

        24.0

        42.3

        39.0

         (3.3)

Pirates

       11.5

          4.0

        15.5

        24.0

        39.5

        36.0

         (3.5)

Athletics

         3.4

          9.6

        13.0

        24.0

        37.0

        33.0

         (4.0)

Blue Jays

       12.2

        10.4

        22.6

        24.0

        46.6

        42.0

         (4.6)

Royals

         3.9

        11.6

        15.5

        24.0

        39.5

        33.0

         (6.5)

Indians

       10.2

          4.9

        15.1

        24.0

        39.1

        31.0

         (8.1)

Diamondbacks

         7.3

          9.1

        16.4

        24.0

        40.4

        31.0

         (9.4)

Rays

       21.8

          7.9

        29.7

        24.0

        53.7

        44.0

         (9.7)

Nationals

         6.3

          3.0

          9.3

        24.0

        33.3

        22.0

       (11.3)

Some brief takeaways-

I was surprised to see the Reds up so high, considering how poorly they played against us.

Not surprisingly, the Royals are near the bottom of this list. Luckily, the Indians have been even worse than we are, thus keeping us out of last place.

The Diamondbacks standing makes sense, given the fact that they seem to have some real talented young players and seem to have severely underperformed.

The Rays being next to last? I don't get that at all.

So, I guess what I'm trying to figure out from this data is, what causes the difference? I can think of three things, but this is probably not all-inclusive, and this is in no particular order:

1. Random chance
2. Baserunning
3. "Non-error" errors, things like throwing to the wrong base, missing a cutoff man, etc. that I'm assuming also don't show up on zone ratings

What else might be a cause? In the Royals' case, I kind of worked backwards, knowing what some of our problems have been thus far, but I'm sure that there are things I'm missing.

Add to del.icio.us

Digg this

Post to Furl

Add to reddit

Add to myYahoo!