2013 Royals ZIPs Released

FanGraphs today released the 2013 ZiPS projections for the Royals. ZiPS is one of the best projections systems available and was created by Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory. Hi Dan. Some of the highlights.

Of some interest will be how the club handles second base this year. Despite having posted just a 64 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in his first 376 major-league plate appearances, 25-year-old Johnny Giavotella‘s profile - according to ZiPS - remains that of league-average player. To his credit, he posted one of the best regressed offensive lines in the Pacific Coast League last year among prospect-aged batters.

I am a little surprise to see Johnny so high. He projects to be better than the other 2B options

PlayerBB%K%BAOBPSLGISOwOBAJohnny Giavotella6.4%13.4%0.2660.3160.3680.1020.300Chris Getz6.3%10.2%0.2590.3100.3160.0570.277Irving Falu5.3%10.5%0.2610.3000.3330.0720.273Tony Abreu3.2%19.6%0.2480.2760.3540.1060.271Miguel Tejada3.8%11.0%0.2510.2840.3280.0770.256Brandon Wood5.2%28.3%0.2110.2550.3290.1180.252

Also, competition (Endy Chavez, Xavier Nady, and Willy Taveras) was brought in to test/compete with Francoeur. Too bad the has beens project t be significantly worse than Jeffy.

PlayerBB%K%BAOBPSLGISOwOBAJeff Francoeur5.3%18.1%0.2610.3050.4130.1520.303Xavier Nady5.5%24.4%0.2220.2760.3290.1070.266Endy Chavez3.9%11.4%0.2490.2800.3290.0800.265Willy Taveras3.5%15.7%0.2280.2590.3020.0740.246

The big push for the Royals this off season was with acquiring some real starters. Here is how the 4 players brought in compare to the old guard (ranked by ERA+):

PlayerIPK/9BB/9HR/9ERA+WARJames Shields208.07.92.31.21003.2Wade Davis153.37.03.31.2951.9Jeremy Guthrie163.75.62.51.3931.9Felipe Paulino88.78.43.71.0920.9Danny Duffy81.07.94.01.3860.6Will Smith163.75.13.11.2830.8Bruce Chen141.36.22.71.5820.6Luis Mendoza134.34.73.41.1820.5Ervin Santana178.36.73.11.6810.6Luke Hochevar156.76.52.91.3810.6

Some huge improvements at the top of the rotation and then it gets pretty muddled. A big shout out to Royal-Fan who stated a few weeks that Santana and Hockevar are the same.

Finally, I like to see where the pitching prospects project. These have to be taken with a grain of a salt, but a couple of years ago, the projections liked Duffy over Montgomery when everyone was raving about Monty.

PlayerK/9BB/9HR/9ERA+Donnie Joseph7.85.21.086Nathan Adcock4.53.51.077Yordano Ventura6.74.61.773Michael Mariot4.53.71.672John Lamb5.04.01.471Jason Adam4.73.12.167Ryan Verdugo6.46.51.766Noel Arguelles3.46.31.560Chris Dwyer5.36.82.059

Not a ton of love, but nice to see Ventura with a +6 K% in the majors. The biggest issue across the board looks to be walks.

Not a ton of surprises. Maybe besides some IP or PA everything, besides Johnny's projection, seem right. Your thoughts?

Read The Full Article:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2013/1/10/3859530/2013-royals-zips-released

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