Rule 5 Possibility for the Braves: Kei Igawa

The Atlanta Braves will have one of the top-10 picks in this year's Rule 5 draft this Thursday at the Winter Meetings. That's the highest selection we've had in 18 years. There are several interesting possibilities out there, but this one hit me as particularly interesting, albeit somewhat risky (though, what Rule 5 selections aren't risky). I was reading John Perotto's preview of the Rule 5 over at Baseball Prospectus and rolled up upon this review of Yankee's left-handed starter Kei Igawa:

He has been a bust since the Yankees spent $46 million to bring him over from Japan in the 2006-07 offseason, paying a $26 million posting fee to the Hanshin Tigers, and then giving him a five-year, $20 million contract. Igawa has just 0.1 WARP3 in two major league seasons, but he did have a 3.45 ERA in 156 1/3 innings for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last year with 141 hits allowed, 45 walks, and 117 strikeouts for a 4.79 DERA. He is 28 and a lefty, so someone might take on the final three years and $12 million on his contract.

Igawa was a total bust for the Yanks, and probably reminded some of Chuck James with the way he gave up homeruns in 2007, but Igawa is more of a strikeout pitcher than James. Igawa is owed $4 million in each of the next three years, which is similar to what we reportedly were willing to offer Junichi Tazawa. So if Tazawa was worth the risk, then why not Igawa, especially since Igawa already has some experience in American baseball, and by looking at his minor league numbers, seems to be learning how to pitch in the states.

Here is a link to Igawa's stats including stats from Japan. Here are some 2007 splits from MiLB.com.

Look, I'm not saying he would be the next coming, but at only $4 million per year and a track record in Japan of being a 200+ inning power pitcher, the potential upside is tremendous. The Braves are in a position to spend that kind of money on an uncertain quantity because of their willingness to give similar money to Tazawa and their desperate need for starting pitching. If he doesn't perform, it's possible that the Yankees would not want him back. In that case, yes, we would be stuck with the contract, but he'd also be signed for two more years, allowing for more opportunities to improve and succeed.

As I said above, the Rule 5 happens on the last day of the winter meetings, so a lot can change between now and then. A lot of options can disappear from the Braves shopping list, necessetating a move like this. But even if we do sign A.J. Burnett or bring in Jake Peavy via trade, Igawa would still be a worthy risk in the fourth or fifth starter spot.

(Of course, the Braves have a full 40-man roster, so who knows if they would even be willing to take anyone off of it to add Igawa.)

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